GFS Out of Rehab? Is it on to Something?

[MWatkins]

Not surprizing that you agree with this model. It has it headed for S FL exactly what your wanting and been wanting for some time now. Just wait when the model shifts back into the atlantic out to sea or shifts towards the other gulf coast states, then you will be the first to say that the gfs is wrong. It really is ashame that you have become sort of a wishcaster as of late, i used to take you seriously but now idk...When a supposed "good" forcaster as yourself aims it for south fl(your living area) instead of the most likely area at this time(the panhandle or mobile(sp) then i have to start asking questions. Maybe the people in FL have just gone insane from all the hits you've taken in the last month. If i am wrong and it does hit S FL then more credit to you and i will surely eat the crow thats served to me.

You are welcome to your opinion...but you should really go back and read my first sentence.

I am simply giving a reason that the solution should not be summarily ignored since everyone here thinks the dang model doesn't know what it's doing. I did NOT call for a SFL landfall. A track closer to 82W is what will probably occur...again note that an SFL landfall is not mentioned ANYWHERE in the post.

Also...note the following is what is happening now...no opinion involved. And also note...no mention of a SFL landfall.

Ivan is definitely behind the NHC schedule from 11AM. We have just hit our first 12 hour verification point since the "forecast thinking" shifted westward some. Consider the most recent advisory:

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST

And now the forecast point from the 11AM:

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.3N 73.3W

The hurricane is well right of that number now...since northwise it is almost there (15.2 vs 15.3) and already a half of a degree slow (72.8 vs 73.3).

Just pointing out the not so obvious.

MW

[Dave C]

Tohellwithwishcasters151,to say someone wants a hurricane to hit somewhere is an unacceptable insult. That is what I gather from your post. I think you owe M Watkins an apology.

[Guest]

ToHellWithWishCasters151,

I think your comments toward Mike are completely off base with no facts supporting it. I don't know if you are trying to get a rise out of people by posting that, but frankly it is out of line.

I know Mike can speak for himself, but let me just say that he is very intelligent and highly respected on this board. If you really think Mike is -removed- this storm to S FL, then you really don't know him at all.

Why don't you actually READ his post instead of inferring what you want out of it. You might learn something....

I have read the post and read plenty of mike's forecasts. Believe i know he is highly resepected and he has enough good forecasts to gain that respect. I agree my post was a bit harsh, but i felt it had to be said. Thats me though i speak my mind. IMO he has been -removed- this storm all week. Like i said if i am wrong and it hits S FL then more credit to mike and i will eat crow.

[Rainband]

ToHellWithWishCasters151,

I think your comments toward Mike are completely off base with no facts supporting it. I don't know if you are trying to get a rise out of people by posting that, but frankly it is out of line.

I know Mike can speak for himself, but let me just say that he is very intelligent and highly respected on this board. If you really think Mike is -removed- this storm to S FL, then you really don't know him at all.

Why don't you actually READ his post instead of inferring what you want out of it. You might learn something....

I have read the post and read plenty of mike's forecasts. Believe i know he is highly resepected and he has enough good forecasts to gain that respect. I agree my post was a bit harsh, but i felt it had to be said. Thats me though i speak my mind. IMO he has been -removed- this storm all week. Like i said if i am wrong and it hits S FL then more credit to mike and i will eat crow.

Mike is NOT a wishcaster he is a very respected individual. I am still waiting for the apology to him

[CourierPR]

Good grief. One West Palm Beach met just said that the high is building in toward Florida and will force Ivan west. Another met said that a trough is coming down to erode the ridge. What gives?

[MWatkins]

IMO he has been -removed- this storm all week.

If not calling for a track near 90 west in 3 days...and following the vast majority of the guidance instead of a lonely model from the Great White North is -removed-...then...guilty as charged.

You are welcome to go back and find any posts that "forecast" or "wishcast" a SFL landfall. You will not find one.

That is all I'm going to say on the subject...if you have a problem with any analysis I bring to the table...please focus on the analysis instead of name calling. I have always done the same.

MW

[Guest]

Its not a secret that that we have people I disagree with on this board, i think everyone knows that. I respect mike and his forecasts but lately i have just felt the wishcaster vibe. Like i said maybe all the impact has caused the forecasters in FL to go insane. All i did here was give an opinion and i shouldn't be shot down for it.

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

Um sorry but Mr. Watkins is not a wishcaster. I understand where you are coming from ToHellWithWishcasters. I agree there are many people on this board who do infact, wishcast storms and have no basis.

I have pointed out routinely that this synoptic setup is much different than that of Frances. The surging ULL is actually further south than gridded by the GFS about 4 days ago. At least the GFS accurately pointed towards this development unlike other models (ahem NOGAPS GGEM etc etc). GFS performed quite well with Charley if you remember. Why don't people remember GFS as the 'outlier' model which entirely accurately predicted Frances slowing. Please, the GFS has it's downfalls as every other model. Mike is simply pointing out the fact that the GFS could easily hold some water here, be it the hurricanes track or the synoptics and subtle changes in the grids. he is using reasoning for this and THAT IS WHAT METEOROLOGISTS DO, be it if the model is presumed accurate or not.

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

If you totally discounted the GFS while charley was south of Cuba, we would have had landfall near Pensacola. with the damn UKMet and NOGAPS surging the storm due north. Let's be reasonable here.

[yoda]

I think its time to lock this thread...

[ameriwx2003]

First Mike Watkins is not a wishcaster!!!!!.. secondly the GFS has trended slightly west from the 0Z run to the 18 Z RUN.. The 12Z EURO and the 18Z GFS are close now with there solutions.

0Z GFS run

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml

18 Z GFS run

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml

12Z Euro

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 4090912!!/

MW I would be interested in your take on the intensity of Ivan once it gets in the SE Gulf( providing it do)es.. It seems there is some debate about if there will or will not be increasing shear in the Gulf..

[NorthGaWeather]

Um sorry but Mr. Watkins is not a wishcaster. I understand where you are coming from ToHellWithWishcasters. I agree there are many people on this board who do infact, wishcast storms and have no basis.

I have pointed out routinely that this synoptic setup is much different than that of Frances. The surging ULL is actually further south than gridded by the GFS about 4 days ago. At least the GFS accurately pointed towards this development unlike other models (ahem NOGAPS GGEM etc etc). GFS performed quite well with Charley if you remember. Why don't people remember GFS as the 'outlier' model which entirely accurately predicted Frances slowing. Please, the GFS has it's downfalls as every other model. Mike is simply pointing out the fact that the GFS could easily hold some water here, be it the hurricanes track or the synoptics and subtle changes in the grids. he is using reasoning for this and THAT IS WHAT METEOROLOGISTS DO, be it if the model is presumed accurate or not.

Hmm...the NOGAPS had the best handle early this morning on the low.

[southerngale]

Its not a secret that that we have people I disagree with on this board, i think everyone knows that. I respect mike and his forecasts but lately i have just felt the wishcaster vibe. Like i said maybe all the impact has caused the forecasters in FL to go insane. All i did here was give an opinion and i shouldn't be shot down for it.

Enough! Mike is not a wishcaster and in case you missed the various threads regarding this, simply don't call ANYONE a wishcaster on this board, whether you think it or not. In this case, it's just absurd anyway. The NHC projected path and the models all point to that "vicinity" and nobody knows exactly where it's going.
In other cases, it's common sense that people are more concerned with a hit in their area and would make more comments and ask more questions with that in mind. That does not make them a wishcaster and we will not allow our members to be afraid to post for fear of being called a wishcaster.

I think Rainband already warned you...lay off.

[Stormcenter]

Not surprizing that you agree with this model. It has it headed for S FL exactly what your wanting and been wanting for some time now. Just wait when the model shifts back into the atlantic out to sea or shifts towards the other gulf coast states, then you will be the first to say that the gfs is wrong. It really is ashame that you have become sort of a wishcaster as of late, i used to take you seriously but now idk...When a supposed "good" forcaster as yourself aims it for south fl(your living area) instead of the most likely area at this time(the panhandle or mobile(sp) then i have to start asking questions. Maybe the people in FL have just gone insane from all the hits you've taken in the last month. If i am wrong and it does hit S FL then more credit to you and i will surely eat the crow thats served to me.

I know I'll get flamed for saying but I believe it must be said.
I DON'T agree with everything this guy posted about Mike but some of what he says does have merit. I have always liked reading Mike's post but for some reason he has been biased toward a S. Florida landfall. In my opinion a good forecaster always looks at different scenarios and does NOT just focus on one. Especially when you have a storm that is still several days away from landfall. Many on this board including Mike have been saying a S. Florida/Florida landfall even before Ivan entered the Carribean!!! Again if you want to flame me then so be it.

[southerngale]

stormcenter...if that's where he thinks it is going, should he abandon that idea just because he lives there? Of course not!

[Stormcenter]

stormcenter...if that's where he thinks it is going, should he abandon that idea just because he lives there? Of course not!

southerngale if Mike is right I will be the first to apologize but for his
sake (because he lives in the Miami area) I HOPE he is wrong.
Actually I hope no one feels the full wrath of Ivan he ends up being like Frances/Lilli and weakening before landfall.

[WeatherNLU]

This is so stupid. MW is biased towards a S FL landfall because that what his meteorological instincts tell him. I am biased towards a FL panhandle landfall, because that's what mine tell me. I don't know where MW went to school for ATMS but I imagine he got the same education I did. When you can put your knowledge into the situation and feel comfortable with your forecast, that's all that matters.

[southerngale]

But why judge him in the first place? That's just wrong. He has a very respectable reputation, not to mention just an all around great guy. It's not like he lives in Galveston and is forecasting it to hit there. He's in Miami. Have you seen the model maps?

Anyway, everyone is entitled to their opinion. Let's all just keep the insulting comments about our forecasters and members off the board please. Thanks!

[Guest]

Is this a weather forum, because in a weather form i thought we were suspose to comment on our thoughts about others forecasts. oh well...

[Anonymous]

Why do you all seem to jump on EVERYBODY and ANYBODY that criticizes a S2K forecaster / mod/ whatever? If he said this to a normal member you all would not be so edgy and pissed off.