track question

[Windfall]

This morning, at 5 AM, the models dramatically shifted right. What caused the models to shift back to the left by the 5 PM advisory???

[air360]

the models chance change with every run...possibly different views on the data entered....i would say since most models are just based on scenarios as to what could happen given the data entered you could run the same model a couple of times with pretty much same data and get different forecasts...
i could be all wrong..but i think that is a decent answer..im just trying to give you some sort of reply...
the models tonight could shift back to the east just as fast as they shifted west...sometimes due to the data entered they can give slightly "flawed" forecasts which are sometimes "back to normal" on the next runs...so tionight they could be back eastward...unless they really do have valid points and data that caused them to go west

[air360]

oh i ment to also say....as far as any specific weather areas that could have caused them to change...i have no clue....i was just saying stuff about how the models are just scenarios basically.

[Anonymous]

And the models will continue to change, as it gets closer.

NEVER GO BY THE 5 DAY FORECAST TRACK, WHICH TOO MANY PEOPLE ON THIS BOARD FOCUS ON!

You can only look at the 3 day forecast track, for a projected path, and even at that, the margin of error is still about 75 miles. There is no way the models and the projected path will not change.