Why the weakening at the end is incorrect

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Derek Ortt

Why the weakening at the end is incorrect

#1 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:16 pm

I have been looking at shear fields, yes, GFS ahs shear over the GOM, which means SHIPS has shear.

This solution is a figment of the GFS imagination. What GFS has is a ridge over the hurricane, in the Bahamas. The canadia, which has the hurricane in the Gulf, has a ridge over it in the GOM. In short, this quite possibly is not going to encounter any shear at all in the Gulf and GFS needs to lay off of the LSD
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btsgmdad
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#2 Postby btsgmdad » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:17 pm

I love your insight Derek! :)
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canegrl04
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#3 Postby canegrl04 » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:19 pm

One thing I have learned to depend on.whatever GFS says,its likely not true.

I just have a bad feeling that ivan is going to be a formidable cane when he makes US landfall as well.Strong cat 4- cat 5
NHC is always conservative with their intensity forecasts
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CYCLONE MIKE
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#4 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:21 pm

Derek, By looking at the latest WV loops what do you think the chances of Ivan moving more west than forecast and end up getting in the central gulf? Any ideas and could yu please explain.
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Derek Ortt

#5 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:48 pm

well,

we've been saying a track well west of NHC for some time, due to the ridge to the north
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Anonymous

#6 Postby Anonymous » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:48 pm

Derek, I posted my forcast.. reply on that thread what you think..
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c5Camille

#7 Postby c5Camille » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:49 pm

good work...

when is your next forcast update?
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Derek Ortt

#8 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:55 pm

forecast is out at 11 p.m. with the next update at 8
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c5Camille

#9 Postby c5Camille » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:57 pm

great... looking forward to it...
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JayPSU
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#10 Postby JayPSU » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:03 pm

Well, one thing I've come to learn, and this is not meant to be disrespectful, is that the forecasters at the NHC are pretty F'ing good. I don't think they would latch onto an idea of weakening Ivan based purely on the GFS or SHIPS. These guys know what they're doing and my money is on them. 8-)
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