wxrisk forecast.......opinions???

[MBismyPlayground]

The WXRISK forecast is up........any opinions????????

http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/hurricanes1.htm#ANALYSIS: 

[JayPSU]

His track looks very good. However, I don't know that I see his reasoning for weakening Ivan so much. Especially since he takes Ivan south of Jamaica. We all saw that Charley didn't weaken at all after passing through western Cuba. The waters off of SW Florida are still extremely warm as well. I'm not sure that I see the reason why so many forecasters weaken Ivan so much before landfall.

[Josephine96]

Ivan could still bomb before landfall because of Florida's warm waters

[quickychick]

Yes, "HPC inspired bullsh1t" is a phrase I'll have to incorporate into my everyday language.

Also wish he had the link where he says "all you have to do is go to this link to see blah blah blah ECMWF is always right."

Interesting that his path is like the "size larger" lines on a sewing pattern--a size larger of the NHC's track at this time.

[PurdueWx80]

His synoptic reasoning is absolutely superb!!! I am in full agreement, except I do believe Ivan will be a few degrees west of where he puts it. I would have to say that 82-88 W is more in line with my thinking.

[rtd2]

we talked about this earlier ... he was right on frances and a fellow member of the lefties club

[Innotech]

my thoughts on that is that Ivan will be turning at thatp oint, and mostl ikely slightly elongated as it does so. that plus al ittle land interaction should weaken the storm.

[jlauderdal]

we talked about this earlier ... he was right on frances and a fellow member of the lefties club

i like DT's forecasts but for the sake of the truth he wasn't right on. he was insisting on a sofla hit or maybe south and that didnt' happen. however, pay attention to what he says because he is much more accurate than most and from a much farther point in time.

[FloridaDiver]

The WXRISK forecast is up........any opinions????????

http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/hurricanes1.htm#ANALYSIS: 

He sure has an “interesting” way of expressing his opinions. I remember reading his heated message threads on the older PBP board a couple of years ago, not the friendliest but one can not argue with his track record, he is very good with long range forecasts. His current forecasts is on the left side of the latest NHC track, I feel for those in Tampa if this plays out as forecasted, in fact the West Coast that is trying to clean up after Charley will have to deal with this setback unfortunately. These are sad times for many in Florida I’m afraid...

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

DT said "This is not a florida storm. NOT HAPPENING" 2 days ago....for the record.

[chadtm80]

DT said "This is not a florida storm. NOT HAPPENING" 2 days ago....for the record.

[canegrl04]

Ivan will not be weakened significantly if he misses Jamaica. Also,TWC stated that Ivan could become stronger than he is righ t now.They wouldn't say that without good reason

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

im not bashing DT. he's very good at what he does. But, well, ....

hehe

we'll see what happens.

[stormcloud]

Gee, wasn't it the ECMWF that kept taking Charley to Texas up to the last day before landfall?

[AlabamaDave]

Why does he trash the TPC and then propose a forecast track that parallels their forecast track, but maybe 50 miles West??

Maybe I haven't been around long enough, but I am not yet impressed with most of these armchair meteorologists who set up fancy websites with monikers that sound very official and then exhaust themselves bashing the TPC. So far, I haven't seen the TPC make a substantial error this season on their forecast tracks.

[weatherFrEaK]

I do not patronize wxrisk.com.

[dougjp]

He certainly has a way with words...., meaning, not knowing where to find the spell check option and that doesn't inspire confidence.....lol.
In Word, its under Tools-Options-Spelling and Grammar, tick Check Spelling As You Type

Seriously though, I always check what he has to say, he explains the reasons for his forecast in plain "english".

[MBismyPlayground]

Seriously though, I always check what he has to say, he explains the reasons for his forecast in plain "english".

LOL, he gets rather ummm excited I think, so much as to not utilize spell check or any of the above. He types like he speaks. No ifs ands or buts. He may flip flop(latley who doesn't?) but somehow he is usually close if not right on the money. Besides, with all of the anxiety all the people on the board have gone thru, he is a breath of "fresh" air and somehow makes me laugh.

[tailgater]

I think he's in with one MODEL, I too was in love with one until she met me

[dixiebreeze]

His synoptic reasoning is absolutely superb!!! I am in full agreement, except I do believe Ivan will be a few degrees west of where he puts it. I would have to say that 82-88 W is more in line with my thinking.

I always pay attention when he talks. And he admits when he IS wrong. I am taking his forecast to heart.