Certainly Looking Like A GOM Cane

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crabbyhermit
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#21 Postby crabbyhermit » Thu Sep 09, 2004 9:10 am

HollynLA wrote:
I don't know about that...our local guys here are telling us this is not a threat to us....and the nhc track takes it right into southern florida....


Many local station's mets just repeat what the NHC says which is why I like to watch Bob Breck, he gives their forecasts and then tells what he thinks it could do also. We all know by now that the NHC's forecasts this far out usually has many errors, which is expected. No one in the GOM is off the hook, by no means, just the same with FL. I'm hoping this thing tracks right across the yucutan and keeps a wwnw motion to spare the US, although it would spell disaster for Mexico. :cry:


Yeah, Bob rocks. Last night he spent lots of time explaining the other options besides the NHC track, complete with maps and sats and whatnot. The other local guys most of the time don't give us that much of a clinic on the tropics. I await Bob's first forecast today, but I don't think he gets any face time until the 5pm newscast here.
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#22 Postby TropicalJen » Thu Sep 09, 2004 9:12 am

rtd2 wrote:quote"Well Iv'e heard talk of this Ridge building to the NE of Ivan"




May I asked where you heard about this NE ridge?


and to Evac Keys at this point is a little trigger happy!




mandatory evac would be trigger happy, keys are populated and take a bit of time to evacuate, most evacs successfully are suppose to take 48 hrs min, its cautious and I believe everyone sees the benefit of being cautious, I"m in st. pete and no way would I travel this weekend anywhere that is an island only connected by a 7mile Bridge, would suck to have to swim to shore... hopefully ivan will find his love for seafood in the atlantic and leave us all alone!.
Last edited by TropicalJen on Thu Sep 09, 2004 9:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#23 Postby alicia-w » Thu Sep 09, 2004 9:12 am

bfez1 wrote:This storm is headed to Florida!!!


Dont forget that the "panhandle" is Florida too.
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#24 Postby Anonymous » Thu Sep 09, 2004 9:16 am

vbhoutex...

I stated a landfall between NO and the Panhandle, IMO...

and you stated..."If I am right and the pattern holds this would suggest a NO to FL panhandle landfall scenario."

What's your beef?
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#25 Postby Canelaw99 » Thu Sep 09, 2004 9:19 am

Evacing the non-residents and visitors is definitely not a trigger happy thing to do. Please bear in mind that there is only 1 road in and out of the FL Keys, and that road gets immensely backed up just on a Sunday with all the tourists leaving. I can't imagine what it would be like if they tried to evac all people in the Keys at the same time. The Keys have been dealing with 'canes for a long time, and they have this stuff down pretty well. I think it's smart for them to be limiting it to non-residents right now, then the residents can come later. JMO. :roll:
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#26 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Sep 09, 2004 9:24 am

BigEyedFish wrote:vbhoutex...

I stated a landfall between NO and the Panhandle, IMO...

and you stated..."If I am right and the pattern holds this would suggest a NO to FL panhandle landfall scenario."

What's your beef?


I have no beef! I stated why I thought it would go there. You stated you though it would go there. There is a world of difference in the two.
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#27 Postby Mello1 » Thu Sep 09, 2004 9:24 am

LaBreeze wrote:Prayers go out to anyone who will be affected. Prayers at the moment for those in Jamaica and surrounding areas.



Most prudent thing yet said.
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#28 Postby Mello1 » Thu Sep 09, 2004 9:27 am

vbhoutex wrote:
BigEyedFish wrote:vbhoutex...

I stated a landfall between NO and the Panhandle, IMO...

and you stated..."If I am right and the pattern holds this would suggest a NO to FL panhandle landfall scenario."

What's your beef?


I have no beef! I stated why I thought it would go there. You stated you though it would go there. There is a world of difference in the two.


Let's not get testy. No opinions are worthless at this point. As far as I'm concerned, until this ridge actually materialize, the Yuacan should keep a wary watch...
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#29 Postby bfez1 » Thu Sep 09, 2004 9:33 am

alicia-w wrote:
bfez1 wrote:This storm is headed to Florida!!!


Dont forget that the "panhandle" is Florida too.


I know that! :roll:
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#30 Postby patsmsg » Thu Sep 09, 2004 11:40 am

skysummit wrote:Aren't the Saints playing at the dome this weekend? Maybe they're just hoping people will go.


The Saints - like Ivan - will BLOW it. :wink:
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#31 Postby patsmsg » Thu Sep 09, 2004 11:46 am

BTW...I welcome everybody's predictions, but I too prefer some explanation or reasoning behind them...unless you just flat out say you are making a guess.

That way, when I go running to all of my friends doing my "Chicken Little" impersonation, I have someone I can quote. That's better than saying "...some guy THINKS it's gonna hit ...".

Now...MY guess is that the PROs have been doing a pretty good job. I'll say Ivan will make landfall somewhere East of Pensacola.

That's my GUESS. <Don't evacuate based on it. >
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#32 Postby rtd2 » Thu Sep 09, 2004 11:46 am

rtd2 wrote:
quote"Well Iv'e heard talk of this Ridge building to the NE of Ivan"




May I asked where you heard about this NE ridge?


Check out the Water Vapor Loop.






LOL..... I was reffering to my original post bringing this topic up!
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Anonymous

A Good Forecast IMO

#33 Postby Anonymous » Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:28 am

Posted September 9th thread "Looks Like GOM Cane"

BigEyedFish wrote:New Orleans to the Panhandle of Florida, IMO will face Ivan's wrath
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