Pay Especially close attention to what is rapidly developing in the last two frames...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 5java.html
-Eric
Westerly Steering currents are relaxing, high receding...
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
yoda
- Category 5
- Posts: 7874
- Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
- Contact:
Re: Westerly Steering currents are relaxing, high receding..
ericinmia wrote:Pay Especially close attention to what is rapidly developing in the last two frames...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 5java.html
-Eric
Ok... good post Eric!
0 likes
-
yoda
- Category 5
- Posts: 7874
- Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
- Contact:
ericinmia wrote:This could very well be the reason for the storm slowing down. It is loosing some of its steering currents. This would allow Ivan to be more susceptible to the trough to its north east, increasing its pull on ivan more.
Ah ok. So are you saying that the turn north will be occuring soon?
0 likes
There are two scenarios possible at this juncture...
1. Ivan is slowing due to the relaxation of the westerlies; however, he is now too strong for this failry strong but distant trough to pull him very far northward. In the next 6 hours we should see this begin to unravel should this be the case. He would travel some around 290-310 before resuming a 270-280 course.
2. Ivan is slowing due to the relaxation of the westerlies; the trough to the northeast begins to dig and exerts a northward pull on Ivan. This would cause Ivan to begin to head 290-330 over the next 12 hours. That is between a high wnw and a high nw.
It all depends on Ivan now. There is not enough know about monsterous large cat5 storms to be able to accurately predict not only their strengthening and weakening, but also more importantly... their track!
-Eric
1. Ivan is slowing due to the relaxation of the westerlies; however, he is now too strong for this failry strong but distant trough to pull him very far northward. In the next 6 hours we should see this begin to unravel should this be the case. He would travel some around 290-310 before resuming a 270-280 course.
2. Ivan is slowing due to the relaxation of the westerlies; the trough to the northeast begins to dig and exerts a northward pull on Ivan. This would cause Ivan to begin to head 290-330 over the next 12 hours. That is between a high wnw and a high nw.
It all depends on Ivan now. There is not enough know about monsterous large cat5 storms to be able to accurately predict not only their strengthening and weakening, but also more importantly... their track!
-Eric
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 94 guests