Pay Especially close attention to what is rapidly developing in the last two frames...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 5java.html
-Eric
Westerly Steering currents are relaxing, high receding...
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yoda
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Re: Westerly Steering currents are relaxing, high receding..
ericinmia wrote:Pay Especially close attention to what is rapidly developing in the last two frames...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 5java.html
-Eric
Ok... good post Eric!
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yoda
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ericinmia wrote:This could very well be the reason for the storm slowing down. It is loosing some of its steering currents. This would allow Ivan to be more susceptible to the trough to its north east, increasing its pull on ivan more.
Ah ok. So are you saying that the turn north will be occuring soon?
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There are two scenarios possible at this juncture...
1. Ivan is slowing due to the relaxation of the westerlies; however, he is now too strong for this failry strong but distant trough to pull him very far northward. In the next 6 hours we should see this begin to unravel should this be the case. He would travel some around 290-310 before resuming a 270-280 course.
2. Ivan is slowing due to the relaxation of the westerlies; the trough to the northeast begins to dig and exerts a northward pull on Ivan. This would cause Ivan to begin to head 290-330 over the next 12 hours. That is between a high wnw and a high nw.
It all depends on Ivan now. There is not enough know about monsterous large cat5 storms to be able to accurately predict not only their strengthening and weakening, but also more importantly... their track!
-Eric
1. Ivan is slowing due to the relaxation of the westerlies; however, he is now too strong for this failry strong but distant trough to pull him very far northward. In the next 6 hours we should see this begin to unravel should this be the case. He would travel some around 290-310 before resuming a 270-280 course.
2. Ivan is slowing due to the relaxation of the westerlies; the trough to the northeast begins to dig and exerts a northward pull on Ivan. This would cause Ivan to begin to head 290-330 over the next 12 hours. That is between a high wnw and a high nw.
It all depends on Ivan now. There is not enough know about monsterous large cat5 storms to be able to accurately predict not only their strengthening and weakening, but also more importantly... their track!
-Eric
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