Ivan Advisories

[Anonymous]

Hurricane season is always interesting and it's nice to learn all the things you can about 'canes on this site.

But FOUR hurricanes hitting Florida is ridiculous. It's insane.

If I lived in south Florida, I'd go out right now and buy plywood, calmly board up my home real tight then calmly head north and drive til I hit Indiana and find a nice hotel and hole up for a couple weeks.

It's impossible to ride out a Category 5 hurricane. It's even crazier to wait til the last minute to try and get out. I'd hate to get caught in traffic with that monster Cat 5 'cane bearing down on me.

This is a crazy hurricane season. Three big canes in Florida already, and it's ONLY September 9th!!! Now a monster Cat 5 Ivan may hit poor Florida.

May God have mercy and shear that thing down to a tropical depression.

No one needs it.

ENOUGH ALREADY. I can't even watch the news anymore, it just ain't normal, all they talk about is hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!!

[btsgmdad]

Folks, these only come around once every few years. For those in his path, Prepare and Flee! For those not in his path, pray that all are spared the wrath of Ivan the terrible!

[MWatkins]

Cat 5 or not...the fact that Ivan is only at 69.5 now implies that the hurricane may be slowing down...in fact that position puts it about half the forward speed of the previous 4 fixes.

As coldfront mentioned in Team Speak tonight...slowing down may be suggesting a change in track.

MW

[chris_fit]

agreed

[MBismyPlayground]

What does lightening in the eyewall mean? It was just announced on TWC .

[STORMSURGE]

As a travis tritt song once said...T R O U B L E

[caneseddy]

I'm not totally convinced Ivan will make this turn..the way the GFDL is taking the storm, it would have to make a sharp NW turn before the sun is up and such a large storm, it's not probable that it will not do it but the storm is moving WNW according to NHC so if it's a wobble then we're ok in South Florida; however, if it continues WNW and if in fact it slows down as NHC says it is forecast to do, then i would be concerned about South Florida and the keys

We'll wait to see what NH says at 5am

I still think this is a GOM storm into the Panhandle and everybody better pray that this storm weakens before landfall because this is a monster of a storm

[Sean in New Orleans]

What does lightening in the eyewall mean? It was just announced on TWC .

Strengthening.

[yoda]

What's interesting to me here is look at when Isabel became a CAT 5 and now Ivan. Again look at the letters.. I. Again, both will and did hit the US pretty hard. The two became CAT 5 in September. The sustained winds are now equal to each other... (for now! )

Ack.. TOO MANY SIMILARITIES!!!

And to add in to Don's research.. this is the second straight year of a CAT 5 Hurricane...

[yoda]

Cat 5 or not...the fact that Ivan is only at 69.5 now implies that the hurricane may be slowing down...in fact that position puts it about half the forward speed of the previous 4 fixes.

As coldfront mentioned in Team Speak tonight...slowing down may be suggesting a change in track.

MW

Agreed Mike.

[NorthGaWeather]

I never said I considered the Euro a great model. I'm more in line with the Canadian and UKMET.

[hurricanemike]

479
URNT12 KNHC 090527
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/0527Z
B. 13 DEG 39 MIN N
69 DEG 25 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2427 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 097 DEG 154 KT
G. 358 DEG 6 NM
H. 925 MB
I. 9 C/ 3106 M
J. 21 C/ 3048 M
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E09/13/10
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF866 1009A IVAN OB 03
MAX FL WIND 154 KT N QUAD 0525Z. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN EYEWALL.
HAIL OUTBOUND THROUGH SOUTHEAST EYEWALL.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Now would be a better time for a change--maybe it could miss Florida all together......We'll just have to wait and see.

[senorpepr]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/0527Z
B. 13 DEG 39 MIN N
69 DEG 25 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2427 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 097 DEG 154 KT
G. 358 DEG 6 NM
H. 925 MB
I. 9 C/ 3106 M
J. 21 C/ 3048 M
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E09/13/10
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF866 1009A IVAN OB 03
MAX FL WIND 154 KT N QUAD 0525Z. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN EYEWALL.
HAIL OUTBOUND THROUGH SOUTHEAST EYEWALL.

[yoda]

I never said I considered the Euro a great model. I'm more in line with the Canadian and UKMET.

Ah ok... just making sure there!

[btsgmdad]

Warren Madden on TWC just mentioned this as well. He said he would be heading to Biloxi today to fly missions into the storm.

[yoda]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/0527Z
B. 13 DEG 39 MIN N
69 DEG 25 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2427 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 097 DEG 154 KT
G. 358 DEG 6 NM
H. 925 MB
I. 9 C/ 3106 M
J. 21 C/ 3048 M
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E09/13/10
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF866 1009A IVAN OB 03
MAX FL WIND 154 KT N QUAD 0525Z. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN EYEWALL.
HAIL OUTBOUND THROUGH SOUTHEAST EYEWALL.

VERY SCARY... hold on.. 154 kt highest max flt wind = 177 MPH!!

[Pebbles]

It does convert down to 160mph at the surface...but mentioned this chatting...can you imagine that plane ride??!!! YOWZERS

[mobilebay]

MIke the 2400 fix was near 68.1W, the 0100 fix is near 69.5. Not much slowing there to me. A degree and a half in 6 H. IMO>

[Stratosphere747]

Senor....How much stronger could it really get?? Being that is has not found the warmest SST's...