Tom Terry - Orlando met, no farther west than...

[Terry]

Mobile or Pensacola and he appeared to me to be supporting the NOGAPS and UKMET models due to Frances.

I'm outta here. Going to Green Turtle Cay in the Abacos to help with relief and check on property, although they seem to be Ok, in which case I'll fish, catch some R and R and come back Sunday to deal with Ivan. Hubbie can do the FL preps. I have enough blocks of ice made to last a week and lots of canned goods and kitty litter!

Hope you guys will post some accurate subject lines since I'll have limited internet access and will just be skimming this board for several days.

As usual - prepare NOW for the worst and hope and pray for the best. FLA has had enough. ENOUGH.

[Windsong]

Yeah, I think he believes that the UKMET and NOGAPS will verify. He sounded a little nervous tonight, which is so not like him. All during Frances, he was very calm and devoid of emotion or drama. He just might be tired too. I know I am...

[merepell]

Gunshy. We are all over it. It was fun getting ready for Charley - and not so bad. It was quick and over. More frantic getting it together for Frances - took 2 days to go through here and it's disrupting lives, health and property. Getting us all cabin fever. Stress is taking it's toll, and God Bless Tom Terry. He's been right on for a while now and I don't like what he said tonight.

Meredith
Apopka, FL

[caneman]

Yeah, I think he believes that the UKMET and NOGAPS will verify. He sounded a little nervous tonight, which is so not like him. All during Frances, he was very calm and devoid of emotion or drama. He just might be tired too. I know I am...

You guys beat me to it but I thought UKMET and NOGAPS were very good with Frances. So, I'm not liking their tracks

[Terry]

I also noticed Tom's unease. Hope it was just being tired, rather than worried. But I'd suspect it is both.

Glad to see you are online from Merrit Island. Still haven't caught up with a friend there and hoping they evacuated to parts way north and west of FLA.

I'll miss Tom Terry's reporting while in the Bahamas so please post his forecasts and hopefully I can catch it here on storm2k!

[RonStallcup]

In Pensacola, I'm getting ready for a Tuesday landfall.

However, with the latest from the National Hurricane Center
I'm going to take a wait and see till morning.

Florida keeps winning the Hurricane Lottery this year.

[tronbunny]

Let's go back to Frances, within 12 hours until landfall.
Tom Terry's model still had the storm coming into Vero, maybe even north.
During the last 24hrs (minus 2 hours post-landfall) he had the model passing within 20 miles of downtown Orlando.
We now know that he was off, enough that Osceola came out rather well.
He has got to be storm weary, and a bit confident because of his accuracy on Charley.
His technology is no more omniscient than the NHC.
I say his odds aren't as good this time.
That said...DISCLAIMER I am NOT a reall forecaster, nor do I play one on TV and am subject to a bit of denial because of gunshyness...
I have to agree that the guidance all says a FL hit. I'm reading signs that edge north of Tampa.
I believe that ridge across us now will deflect Ivan off the extreme SW tip of FL, and the incoming ridge from the west will..
A: block Ivan from ever getting into GOM
or
B: allow Ivan to be sucked into the "Frances funnel" that will be somewhere around the big bend.

Now, where's that margarita salt?

[baygirl_1]

Terry--
Have a good trip to Abacos. Any chance you can lasso Ivan and toss him out in the middle of the Atlantic on your way?!

P.S. Family in Lake Wales and east side of Tampa reported in. All are well with very minimal damage, thank goodness. Just very storm weary. Thanks, again, for your Lake Wales updates last weekend.

[bahamaswx]

Green Turtle Cay is a pretty nice place.

[LakeToho]

Some people in Osceola County did not fair that well. I am one of them, and also my neighbors. We are South of Kissimmee on West Lake Toho.

Also Tom TErry provides only NHC Tracks, with the exception of his Charley Track. So you cannot blame him for his forcast on Frances. He does a much better job than Channel 6 who buys into Accuweather forecasts. During Charley channel 6 had their forecast west of florida going up the coast and were telling people not to worry the storm would barely effect them up until 7 hours before it struck.

Channel 2 is what I call the Orlando Board of Tourism Weather Station. Dont worry its not going to hit us.. Ensuring tourists dollars do not leave the Magic Kingdom prematurely.

[Terry]

baygirl_1 - I heard a true horror story out of Lake Wales today from Charley. From the family whose five cats I fostered during Frances.

They stayed in their mobile home (grrrr) near Eagle Ridge Mall. Their son said he could see the outside through the kitchen cabinets. Long story short - the whole thing, ceiling and walls came down on them in the bathroom. It took six hours for them to be rescued - 2 adults, one child, five cats, and a bird who says "here, kitty, kitty." The stuff fell on the bird's cage, which save hime.

The five cats went home with them today to their new mobile home with an offer from me to foster again if Ivan comes this way (God Forbid). They were my nicest ever house guests.

And yes, bahahaswx - GTC is the best. Been going there since the70's and so glad they did Ok with Frances.

Stay safe all !!!! This too will pass and we Southerners can watch the winter storms up north.

[tronbunny]

Hi Toho,
I'm dead center between East and West.
I know that we did better here, mostly because of new construction. Plus being that hair easterly.
Bottom line - I'm not putting any real weight on any models/forecasts/hunches this far out.
Frances tracked further west than any of Tom Terry's models.
West Volusia was much more torn up this weekend than in Charley. Their power was out longer.
And we, in Osceola, weren't out nearly as long, had much less rain than he forecast and are back in school today.

[Windsong]

[quote="LakeToho"]
Also Tom TErry provides only NHC Tracks, with the exception of his Charley Track. So you cannot blame him for his forcast on Frances. He does a much better job than Channel 6 who buys into Accuweather forecasts.

True. Tom Terry only deviated on Charley because he saw a clear and present danger that differed from the expected landfall (even though the new landfall was still in the cone). His actions clearly saved lives as he was able to alert many people that were not ready for impact. Kudos to Tom Terry. I like his style and his expertise sets him apart IMHO.
Windsong