00Z models should be interesting

[mobilebay]

Please remember people when the GFS goes drastickly east or west so does the BAMM, and GFDL. The Gfs looks totaly crazy. It has Ivan way to slow, and has been way to for North.Trust me if the GFS goes back west with this run so will the GFDL, and BAMM. Now to me the most likely tracks would be that of the NOGAPS, or UKMET. However, I have not discouted the Canadian because it has done well with the track up until now. Also the ETA (for what it's worth) has jumped on a more Canadian track. Like I said the 00Z models should be interesting.

[dhweather]

It's all work of the devil! It's an evil right wing conspiracy! It's all a left-wing flop!! It's all because that solar wind collector crased into the utah desert at 190MPH.

[cycloneye]

And they will have the data from the gulfstream jet and because of that it will be interesting to see after that data is factored in what changes occur with the models.

[yoda]

Yes, can't wait to see the 00z models... and I may be staying up to see what the new 00z ECMWF does...

[WeatherEmperor]

Indeed.

<RICKY>

[shorrock]

color me tired from frances, when is 00z in relation to est? Gotta start getting my parents warmed up to the idea of evacuation if necessary.

I know it's still 120 hours, but if you tried to evacuate down here in south florida, you know how much of a joke getting out of here was. We tried to leave before mandatory evacuations began, and had to turn back.

[mobilebay]

Also, remember the Globals where having a fit with Frances while she was down in the Tropics. They kept trying to turn her More north like Ivan because they where underestimating the the strength of the 500MB ridge.

[Ixolib]

It's all work of the devil! It's an evil right wing conspiracy! It's all a left-wing flop!! It's all because that solar wind collector crased into the utah desert at 190MPH.

[yoda]

Well.. here is the 00z ETA...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

At this point, it is South of Cuba... but I can't really tell...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

At this point... it has moved NorthWest (I think) and is still south of Cuba

(Comments welcome)

Matt

[FritzPaul]

00Z = 2000 EDT = 0800 EDT

Not sure when it'll be posted. I'm sure someone will post the time and/or link.

[Scott_inVA]

Well.. here is the 00z ETA...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

At this point, it is South of Cuba... but I can't really tell...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

At this point... it has moved NorthWest (I think) and is still south of Cuba

(Comments welcome)

Matt

God! Yoda....please don't even look at the Eta about a TC...especially at this latitude. nevernevernever.

Scott

[yoda]

And I am just gonna say WHA? to this model (quoting someone who said WHA earlier on this board)


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... r_102l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... r_114l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... r_126l.gif

Matt

[yoda]

Well.. here is the 00z ETA...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

At this point, it is South of Cuba... but I can't really tell...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

At this point... it has moved NorthWest (I think) and is still south of Cuba

(Comments welcome)

Matt

God! Yoda....please don't even look at the Eta about a TC...especially at this latitude. nevernevernever.

Scott

Ok.. sorry... then what should models should I be looking for then Scott?

[LakeToho]

The models already have included some of the G-IV mission data. I am not sure why people keep saying that the dropsone data has not been included in the model data. In fact, this is the lowest Lat. mission ever flown. Please see:

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 07 2004

A NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET PERFORMED A SURVEILLANCE FLIGHT AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF IVAN LATE YESTERDAY EVENING WHICH HAD A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 72 HOURS AS IVAN MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...AFTER THAT THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ENOUGH FOR ALREADY STORM WEARY PEOPLE IN FLORIDA TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT.