Ivan Advisories

[yoda]

Agreed Eric.. BUT LOOK AT THIS:

12hr VT 09/1200z 14.5n 71.0w 135 kt
24hr VT 10/0000z 15.9n 73.4w 130 kt


135 kts = 155.25 MPH (CAT 5 BORDERLINE)
130 kts = 149.5 MPH....

[rainstorm]

no point in arguing the obvious. if people think andrew was bad, just wait. everyone should be praying now

[hibiscushouse]

Outlook valid 14/0000z 27.0n 82.5w

I just have the tracking chart print out from the NHC and it's not too detailed.
Where exactly is that?

[Wnghs2007]

Outlook valid 14/0000z 27.0n 82.5w

I just have the tracking chart print out from the NHC and it's not too detailed.
Where exactly is that?

Ummmm. Punta Gorda, Florida that is the truth. Charley over again maybe?

[BReb]

where they keep the suspected al-Quaida prisoners. It's located on the SE coast of Cuba. I seem to recall they house the prisoners in flimsy structures- wonder how they will handle the prison if Ivan strikes.

[dhweather]

It may hit Belize too.

[rich02tj]

Forecasted track from National Hurricane Center Website

I am really hoping this is wrong....and it goes way east and doesn't hit anybody in the US.....

[Hyperstorm]

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR IVAN TO REACH 135 KT IN 12 HR ON
THE PREMISE THAT THE AFTERNOON STRENGTHENING WILL CONTINUE. AFTER
THAT...VARIOUS ANALYSES INDICATE THAT IVAN SHOULD PASS OVER COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND REDUCED MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY
FOR ABOUT 24 HR. THIS COMBINED WITH AN EXPECTED CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
CYCLE SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. WARMER WATER AWAITS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WHICH WOULD
ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING WHEN IVAN IS NOT HITTING LAND OR
UNDERGOING CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES. AFTER 96 HR...SOME WESTERLY
SHEAR MAY DEVELOP AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS A SLIGHT
WEAKENING AT 120 HR. WHILE THE INTENSITY UPS AND DOWNS MAY BE MORE
PRONOUNCED THAN FORECAST HERE...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER BEVEN

They said the EXACT words when Charley was projected to be near Florida...the rest is history. Oh God!

[clueless newbie]

Isn't it going right over Havana? I know that Fidel is not very popular in US, but still there are plenty of innocent people.

[dhweather]

Dont' read too much into that. *MAY DEVELOP*

[Greg]

I stopped reading that C--- after the "FSU super-de-duper ensemble" statement. How much other information do you want denied before you are forced to your own conclusion?

Once that is thrown into the mix, the report is tainted.

[dhweather]

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhh

The Super secret FSU SuperEnsemble has moved to the keys... lol

This advisory sure is foreboding about what we have been seeing ever since late this morning... Mike and I have been posting many things that support this shift... People should remain vigilant to see what may occur...
This could lead to a strike in the carolinas... Where is hurricane_lover when we need him?
-Eric

IN THE CAROLINAS!!!!

[Terry]

Well, if Ivan does hit easternside of Cuba, aren't there most mountains there that might knock him down a peg or two?

Not high mtns, but I cruised past there and it wasn't a sea level part of the island.

[feederband]

Man if this track shows the same thing at the 5 am people in tampa are going to freak in the morning.

[AirmaN]

if they hold al-quaida prisoners, execute them all---seriously.

[rich02tj]

Yea they will....

[melhow]

locals...turn on Steve Jervey nbc local (8 here) he's on now...yikes

[Hyperstorm]

Dont' read too much into that. *MAY DEVELOP*

Exactly, they will never say anything for certain because nothing is set in stone. That's about as "bold" as they will get.

The point of the thread is that they said the same thing was *possibly* going to happen with Charley by the time it approached Florida. Well, we all know what happened and what was expected to be a lower category storm, turned out to be much stronger.

DON'T take everything that's being said for SURE....

[Ixolib]

Which is ANOTHER great reason why the NHC should remove the dotted line - especially THIS far out - and just use the cone. Otherwise, folks see the storm as coming right through their own front door when it's still 1,500 miles away.

[shimmer]

CHARLEY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING...POSSIBLY EVEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING...AND BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
OVER WESTERN CUBA THIS EVENING. THE TERRAIN OVER WESTERN CUBA IS
NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AND LITTLE...IF ANY...DISRUPTION OF THE
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW REGIME THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF
BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS...MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH
SEEMS QUITE PROBABLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
CHARLEY COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BETWEEN THE 12 AND 24 HOURS
TIME PERIODS...AND THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL DUE
TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER COASTAL WATERS AROUND THE
TAMPA BAY AREA.