TPC won't upgrade NOW to Cat 5 with models pointing to FL.

[shimmer]

This far away from Florida and with the vast number of models pointing to southern Florida, TPC will be especially cautious of causing panic by upgrading the storm to a 5. Politics, the President visited today, will no doubt play a role. Floridians are just to weary and shell shocked.

[Harbormaster]

Looks like any five that I have ever seen. At least based on sat images...

[Derecho]

It's simple.

NHC will upgrade Ivan to Cat 5 if reconnaissance shows Ivan is a Cat 5.

Reconnaissance windspeeds so far has shown Ivan to still be a good 20-25 kt below what is needed for an upgrade.

People need to stop this ridiculous overthinking and conspiracy theorizing. I have a feeling a lot of it is inspired by Bastardi and his rants and the idea of those filtering out.

[WaryEye]

I agree that they will continue to be shady and proceed with caution for these reasons but Floridians are not fools either and I'm sure the majority are familiar with the Saffir-Simpson scale. They won't be duped. Still, I wish it wasn't even an issue. This really stinks. I am praying it goes far north and misses everyone.

[JPmia]

They are scientists...not politicians...TPC will upgrade the storm to Cat 5 when they have concrete data to show it is a Cat 5.

[dhweather]

I think that since a cat 5 is a rare event, they just won't do it without recon data to support it, or T numbers around 40

[PurdueWx80]

It's simple.

NHC will upgrade Ivan to Cat 5 if reconnaissance shows Ivan is a Cat 5.

Reconnaissance windspeeds so far has shown Ivan to still be a good 20-25 kt below what is needed for an upgrade.

People need to stop this ridiculous overthinking and conspiracy theorizing. I have a feeling a lot of it is inspired by Bastardi and his rants and the idea of those filtering out.

What the heck are you talking about Derecho? Do you even read Bastardi's column? If you do, then you must not pay much attention. I agree that the only way it will be upgraded is if Recon finds lower pressure and/or higher winds tonight (or whenever). I'm not sure what it takes to get T numbers above 7, but I'm guessing they would upgrade if that happened as well. It's really pointless to speculate that Joe Bastardi has caused everyone on this board to go ape sh*t over a storm that is obviously the most classic-looking hurricane of the season.

[mf_dolphin]

I doubt if they would upgrade just on T-numbers with recon available. Dvorak is a good tool but doesn't replace actual data IMO

[Huckster]

It's simple.

NHC will upgrade Ivan to Cat 5 if reconnaissance shows Ivan is a Cat 5.

Reconnaissance windspeeds so far has shown Ivan to still be a good 20-25 kt below what is needed for an upgrade.

People need to stop this ridiculous overthinking and conspiracy theorizing. I have a feeling a lot of it is inspired by Bastardi and his rants and the idea of those filtering out.

Derecho, do you ever say anything constructive? Why always so caustic? This constant Bastardi bashing is getting old, about as old as the constant mocking of ncweatherwizard by some. Can't you just politely give facts and figures? Maybe a forecast of your own instead of deriding anything you find fault with? Try it sometime.

[Air Force Met]

It's simple.

NHC will upgrade Ivan to Cat 5 if reconnaissance shows Ivan is a Cat 5.

Reconnaissance windspeeds so far has shown Ivan to still be a good 20-25 kt below what is needed for an upgrade.

People need to stop this ridiculous overthinking and conspiracy theorizing. I have a feeling a lot of it is inspired by Bastardi and his rants and the idea of those filtering out.

Ooops. Looks like Bastardi's rants were right. Doubt you'll give him credit for stating a sub 920 hurricane though.

[storm4u]

He makes calls like that alot thats why noone listens to him but yes ill give him credit for it