Ivan Advisories
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chadtm80
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Harbormaster
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bwstg
11pm advisory
Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 27
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 08, 2004
Ivan went through a period of rapid deepening this afternoon...with
the central pressure falling from 951 to 938 mb in a period of
about 5.5 hours. The maximum 700 mb flight level-winds were 131
kt...and a northeast eyewall dropsonde suggested surface winds near
120 kt. Based on the dropsonde and the pressure...the maximum
intensity is increased to 125 kt...which is in good agreement with
127 kt satellite intensity estimates from TAFB...SAB...and AFWA.
The satellite signature of the hurricane has not changed
significantly since the hurricane hunter left...so it is unknown if
the deepening has continued. The initial intensity could be a
little conservative.
Ivan has nudged a little to the left during the evening and the
initial motion is now 290/15. There is little change to the
forecast philosophy during the first 48 hr...as Ivan should
continue west-northwestward toward Jamaica on the south side of the
subtropical ridge. Things gets more uncertain after 48 hr...as the
ridge starts to weaken due to a digging mid/upper-level trough over
the eastern United States and an upper-level low moving westward
under the ridge. This combination should allow Ivan to turn
northwestward and eventually northward...with the usual questions
of where and when. The GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...and FSU superensemble
have all shifted to the right...with the GFS recurving Ivan through
the Bahamas...the GFDL moving it into southeastern Florida...the
NOGAPS moving it up the length of the Florida Peninsula...and the
superensemble passing just west of Key West. Given the
inconsistency of the models...and the leftward nudge that occurred
this evening...the forecast track will not shift as far east as the
guidance at this time. The new track is shifted a little west of
the previous track for the first 24-36 hr and then somewhat to the
right after 72 hr.
The intensity forecast calls for Ivan to reach 135 kt in 12 hr on
the premise that the afternoon strengthening will continue. After
that...various analyses indicate that Ivan should pass over cooler
sea surface temperatures and reduced maximum potential intensity
for about 24 hr. This combined with an expected concentric eyewall
cycle should cause some weakening. Warmer water awaits over the
northwestern Caribbean and The Straits of Florida...which would
allow some strengthening when Ivan is not hitting land or
undergoing concentric eyewall cycles. After 96 hr...some westerly
shear may develop and the intensity forecast reflects a slight
weakening at 120 hr. While the intensity ups and Downs may be more
pronounced than forecast here...Ivan is expected to remain a major
hurricane through the forecast period.
Forecaster Beven
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 09/0300z 13.6n 69.1w 125 kt
12hr VT 09/1200z 14.5n 71.0w 135 kt
24hr VT 10/0000z 15.9n 73.4w 130 kt
36hr VT 10/1200z 17.4n 75.6w 125 kt
48hr VT 11/0000z 18.6n 77.5w 120 kt...near Jamaica
72hr VT 12/0000z 21.0n 80.0w 125 kt
96hr VT 13/0000z 23.5n 82.0w 120 kt
120hr VT 14/0000z 27.0n 82.5w 115 kt
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 08, 2004
Ivan went through a period of rapid deepening this afternoon...with
the central pressure falling from 951 to 938 mb in a period of
about 5.5 hours. The maximum 700 mb flight level-winds were 131
kt...and a northeast eyewall dropsonde suggested surface winds near
120 kt. Based on the dropsonde and the pressure...the maximum
intensity is increased to 125 kt...which is in good agreement with
127 kt satellite intensity estimates from TAFB...SAB...and AFWA.
The satellite signature of the hurricane has not changed
significantly since the hurricane hunter left...so it is unknown if
the deepening has continued. The initial intensity could be a
little conservative.
Ivan has nudged a little to the left during the evening and the
initial motion is now 290/15. There is little change to the
forecast philosophy during the first 48 hr...as Ivan should
continue west-northwestward toward Jamaica on the south side of the
subtropical ridge. Things gets more uncertain after 48 hr...as the
ridge starts to weaken due to a digging mid/upper-level trough over
the eastern United States and an upper-level low moving westward
under the ridge. This combination should allow Ivan to turn
northwestward and eventually northward...with the usual questions
of where and when. The GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...and FSU superensemble
have all shifted to the right...with the GFS recurving Ivan through
the Bahamas...the GFDL moving it into southeastern Florida...the
NOGAPS moving it up the length of the Florida Peninsula...and the
superensemble passing just west of Key West. Given the
inconsistency of the models...and the leftward nudge that occurred
this evening...the forecast track will not shift as far east as the
guidance at this time. The new track is shifted a little west of
the previous track for the first 24-36 hr and then somewhat to the
right after 72 hr.
The intensity forecast calls for Ivan to reach 135 kt in 12 hr on
the premise that the afternoon strengthening will continue. After
that...various analyses indicate that Ivan should pass over cooler
sea surface temperatures and reduced maximum potential intensity
for about 24 hr. This combined with an expected concentric eyewall
cycle should cause some weakening. Warmer water awaits over the
northwestern Caribbean and The Straits of Florida...which would
allow some strengthening when Ivan is not hitting land or
undergoing concentric eyewall cycles. After 96 hr...some westerly
shear may develop and the intensity forecast reflects a slight
weakening at 120 hr. While the intensity ups and Downs may be more
pronounced than forecast here...Ivan is expected to remain a major
hurricane through the forecast period.
Forecaster Beven
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 09/0300z 13.6n 69.1w 125 kt
12hr VT 09/1200z 14.5n 71.0w 135 kt
24hr VT 10/0000z 15.9n 73.4w 130 kt
36hr VT 10/1200z 17.4n 75.6w 125 kt
48hr VT 11/0000z 18.6n 77.5w 120 kt...near Jamaica
72hr VT 12/0000z 21.0n 80.0w 125 kt
96hr VT 13/0000z 23.5n 82.0w 120 kt
120hr VT 14/0000z 27.0n 82.5w 115 kt
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Wnghs2007
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11 Pm Ivan Forecast Advisory
Hurricane Ivan Forecast/Advisory Number 27
Statement as of 03:00Z on September 09, 2004
at 11 PM AST...0300z...the government of the Cayman Islands has
issued a Hurricane Watch for the Cayman Islands.
At 11 PM AST...a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the entire
southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the Dominican
Republic westward...including Port au Prince. A Hurricane Watch
also remains in effect for this area.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Aruba...Bonaire...and
Curacao.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the guajira peninsula of Colombia...and for the entire northern
coast of Venezuela.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Jamaica. Hurricane warnings
will likely be required for Jamaica Thursday morning.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the southwestern coast
of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo westward to
pedernales. Tropical storm warnings may be required for a portion
of this area on Thursday.
Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.
Hurricane center located near 13.6n 69.1w at 09/0300z
position accurate within 15 nm
present movement toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 15 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 938 mb
Max sustained winds 125 kt with gusts to 155 kt.
64 kt....... 50ne 25se 25sw 50nw.
50 kt.......100ne 75se 35sw 100nw.
34 kt.......140ne 125se 75sw 140nw.
12 ft seas..300ne 140se 140sw 200nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 13.6n 69.1w at 09/0300z
at 09/0000z center was located near 13.4n 68.4w
forecast valid 09/1200z 14.5n 71.0w
Max wind 135 kt...gusts 165 kt.
64 kt... 60ne 30se 30sw 60nw.
50 kt...100ne 80se 40sw 100nw.
34 kt...150ne 130se 75sw 150nw.
Forecast valid 10/0000z 15.9n 73.4w
Max wind 130 kt...gusts 160 kt.
64 kt... 60ne 40se 40sw 60nw.
50 kt...100ne 80se 50sw 100nw.
34 kt...150ne 130se 90sw 150nw.
Forecast valid 10/1200z 17.4n 75.6w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.
64 kt... 60ne 45se 45sw 60nw.
50 kt...100ne 80se 60sw 100nw.
34 kt...150ne 140se 100sw 150nw.
Forecast valid 11/0000z 18.6n 77.5w...near Jamaica
Max wind 120 kt...gusts 145 kt.
50 kt...100ne 90se 60sw 100nw.
34 kt...150ne 150se 110sw 140nw.
Forecast valid 12/0000z 21.0n 80.0w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.
50 kt...100ne 100se 60sw 90nw.
34 kt...150ne 150se 120sw 130nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 13/0000z 23.5n 82.0w
Max wind 120 kt...gusts 145 kt.
Outlook valid 14/0000z 27.0n 82.5w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 13.6n 69.1w
next advisory at 09/0900z
forecaster Beven
$$
Statement as of 03:00Z on September 09, 2004
at 11 PM AST...0300z...the government of the Cayman Islands has
issued a Hurricane Watch for the Cayman Islands.
At 11 PM AST...a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the entire
southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the Dominican
Republic westward...including Port au Prince. A Hurricane Watch
also remains in effect for this area.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Aruba...Bonaire...and
Curacao.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the guajira peninsula of Colombia...and for the entire northern
coast of Venezuela.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Jamaica. Hurricane warnings
will likely be required for Jamaica Thursday morning.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the southwestern coast
of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo westward to
pedernales. Tropical storm warnings may be required for a portion
of this area on Thursday.
Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.
Hurricane center located near 13.6n 69.1w at 09/0300z
position accurate within 15 nm
present movement toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 15 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 938 mb
Max sustained winds 125 kt with gusts to 155 kt.
64 kt....... 50ne 25se 25sw 50nw.
50 kt.......100ne 75se 35sw 100nw.
34 kt.......140ne 125se 75sw 140nw.
12 ft seas..300ne 140se 140sw 200nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 13.6n 69.1w at 09/0300z
at 09/0000z center was located near 13.4n 68.4w
forecast valid 09/1200z 14.5n 71.0w
Max wind 135 kt...gusts 165 kt.
64 kt... 60ne 30se 30sw 60nw.
50 kt...100ne 80se 40sw 100nw.
34 kt...150ne 130se 75sw 150nw.
Forecast valid 10/0000z 15.9n 73.4w
Max wind 130 kt...gusts 160 kt.
64 kt... 60ne 40se 40sw 60nw.
50 kt...100ne 80se 50sw 100nw.
34 kt...150ne 130se 90sw 150nw.
Forecast valid 10/1200z 17.4n 75.6w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.
64 kt... 60ne 45se 45sw 60nw.
50 kt...100ne 80se 60sw 100nw.
34 kt...150ne 140se 100sw 150nw.
Forecast valid 11/0000z 18.6n 77.5w...near Jamaica
Max wind 120 kt...gusts 145 kt.
50 kt...100ne 90se 60sw 100nw.
34 kt...150ne 150se 110sw 140nw.
Forecast valid 12/0000z 21.0n 80.0w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.
50 kt...100ne 100se 60sw 90nw.
34 kt...150ne 150se 120sw 130nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 13/0000z 23.5n 82.0w
Max wind 120 kt...gusts 145 kt.
Outlook valid 14/0000z 27.0n 82.5w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 13.6n 69.1w
next advisory at 09/0900z
forecaster Beven
$$
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
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- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 27
Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on September 08, 2004
...Extremely dangerous category four Ivan continues
west-northwestward...new watches and warnings issued...
at 11 PM AST...0300z...the government of the Cayman Islands has
issued a Hurricane Watch for the Cayman Islands.
At 11 PM AST...a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the entire
southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the Dominican
Republic westward...including Port au Prince. A Hurricane Watch
also remains in effect for this area.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Aruba...Bonaire...and
Curacao.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the guajira peninsula of Colombia...and for the entire northern
coast of Venezuela.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Jamaica. Hurricane warnings
will likely be required for Jamaica Thursday morning.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the southwestern coast
of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo westward to
pedernales. Tropical storm warnings may be required for a portion
of this area on Thursday.
Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.
At 11 PM AST...0300z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 13.6 north...longitude 69.1 west or about 95 miles...155
km north of Curacao in the Dutch Netherland Antilles. This is also
about 595 miles... 960 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica.
Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease in
forward speed during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center
of Ivan should move north of Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao during
the next several hours and then continue on Route toward the area
near Jamaica.
Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Maximum sustained winds are near
145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some additional
strengthening is possible tonight...followed by fluctuations in
strength.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb...27.70 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area.
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the
path of Ivan.
Repeating the 11 PM AST position...13.6 N... 69.1 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...145 mph. Minimum central pressure... 938 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am AST followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am AST.
Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on September 08, 2004
...Extremely dangerous category four Ivan continues
west-northwestward...new watches and warnings issued...
at 11 PM AST...0300z...the government of the Cayman Islands has
issued a Hurricane Watch for the Cayman Islands.
At 11 PM AST...a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the entire
southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the Dominican
Republic westward...including Port au Prince. A Hurricane Watch
also remains in effect for this area.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Aruba...Bonaire...and
Curacao.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the guajira peninsula of Colombia...and for the entire northern
coast of Venezuela.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Jamaica. Hurricane warnings
will likely be required for Jamaica Thursday morning.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the southwestern coast
of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo westward to
pedernales. Tropical storm warnings may be required for a portion
of this area on Thursday.
Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.
At 11 PM AST...0300z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 13.6 north...longitude 69.1 west or about 95 miles...155
km north of Curacao in the Dutch Netherland Antilles. This is also
about 595 miles... 960 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica.
Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease in
forward speed during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center
of Ivan should move north of Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao during
the next several hours and then continue on Route toward the area
near Jamaica.
Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Maximum sustained winds are near
145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some additional
strengthening is possible tonight...followed by fluctuations in
strength.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb...27.70 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area.
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the
path of Ivan.
Repeating the 11 PM AST position...13.6 N... 69.1 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...145 mph. Minimum central pressure... 938 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am AST followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am AST.
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#neversummer
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hurricanefloyd5
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SouthernWx
Ivan evening analysis: an extremely dangerous hurricane
Simply put, hurricane Ivan is an extremely dangerous hurricane....potentially a catastrophic hurricane. A powerful hurricane which strengthened in an area (just north of South America) where many storms weaken or dissapate...and is now moving toward very warm waters which possess the highest oceanic heat content in the Atlantic basin.
If the current rapid deepening phase runs another 8-12 hours....we could be looking at category 5 hurricane even before reaching Jamaica, which would be the most intense hurricane to make a direct hit on that island nation (Gilbert was a cat-3 when crossing Jamaica; Allen passed just to the north also as a strong cat-3).
After passing near or over Jamaica, I expect Ivan to weaken slightly....but quickly regain the lost intensity before making landfall again....crossing over Cuba near or just east of Havana with 140 kt (160 mph) sustained winds. While I theorize Ivan won't be as intense in the Gulf of Mexico while approaching Florida....due to increasing shear and the churned up waters (courtesy of hurricane Charley) with less oceanic heat content, I still forecast Ivan as a strong category 4 hurricane....both in the lower Florida Keys and along the Florida west coast. It isn't out of the realm of possibility that Ivan could still be at category 5 strength while passing near/ west of Key West.
It's been apparent, almost from the onset, that Ivan had potential to attain extreme hurricane status.....excellent outflow in all quadrants, low shear, and a path far south while east of the islands that carried the hurricane over waters with very high tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP). The poster who yesterday that compared a satellite image of Ivan to hurricane Camille wasn't far off-base....this hurricane reminds me of both hurricane Camille and hurricane Allen (NOT intensity-wise, at least not yet...but the similarity of structure and outflow patterns.
These are the almost perfect conditions which allowed Ivan to pass through the "Caribbean hurricane graveyard" without loss of intensity. It's that same excellent enviroment that may allow Ivan to reach category 5 intensity....even before reaching Jamaica and the area of high TCHP located over the NW Caribbean Sea.
I wish I had good news for hurricane-weary Floridians...but there's not much doubt in my mind this evening that Ivan will be somewhere close to the Florida peninsula in 4-5 days as a very intense hurricane.....either over south Florida, or just west of the peninsula moving north. With the strength of the forecast trough, I don't currently foresee landfall occurring any farther west than the Mobile/ Pensacola area...and is IMO more likely farther east....between Apalachicola and Miami.
For my latest track forecast, please click here:
http://community-2.webtv.net/vortex4000 (click on "Forecasts").
If the current rapid deepening phase runs another 8-12 hours....we could be looking at category 5 hurricane even before reaching Jamaica, which would be the most intense hurricane to make a direct hit on that island nation (Gilbert was a cat-3 when crossing Jamaica; Allen passed just to the north also as a strong cat-3).
After passing near or over Jamaica, I expect Ivan to weaken slightly....but quickly regain the lost intensity before making landfall again....crossing over Cuba near or just east of Havana with 140 kt (160 mph) sustained winds. While I theorize Ivan won't be as intense in the Gulf of Mexico while approaching Florida....due to increasing shear and the churned up waters (courtesy of hurricane Charley) with less oceanic heat content, I still forecast Ivan as a strong category 4 hurricane....both in the lower Florida Keys and along the Florida west coast. It isn't out of the realm of possibility that Ivan could still be at category 5 strength while passing near/ west of Key West.
It's been apparent, almost from the onset, that Ivan had potential to attain extreme hurricane status.....excellent outflow in all quadrants, low shear, and a path far south while east of the islands that carried the hurricane over waters with very high tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP). The poster who yesterday that compared a satellite image of Ivan to hurricane Camille wasn't far off-base....this hurricane reminds me of both hurricane Camille and hurricane Allen (NOT intensity-wise, at least not yet...but the similarity of structure and outflow patterns.
These are the almost perfect conditions which allowed Ivan to pass through the "Caribbean hurricane graveyard" without loss of intensity. It's that same excellent enviroment that may allow Ivan to reach category 5 intensity....even before reaching Jamaica and the area of high TCHP located over the NW Caribbean Sea.
I wish I had good news for hurricane-weary Floridians...but there's not much doubt in my mind this evening that Ivan will be somewhere close to the Florida peninsula in 4-5 days as a very intense hurricane.....either over south Florida, or just west of the peninsula moving north. With the strength of the forecast trough, I don't currently foresee landfall occurring any farther west than the Mobile/ Pensacola area...and is IMO more likely farther east....between Apalachicola and Miami.
For my latest track forecast, please click here:
http://community-2.webtv.net/vortex4000 (click on "Forecasts").
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Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhh
The Super secret FSU SuperEnsemble has moved to the keys... lol
This advisory sure is foreboding about what we have been seeing ever since late this morning... Mike and I have been posting many things that support this shift... People should remain vigilant to see what may occur...
This could lead to a strike in the carolinas...
Where is hurricane_lover when we need him?
-Eric
The Super secret FSU SuperEnsemble has moved to the keys... lol
This advisory sure is foreboding about what we have been seeing ever since late this morning... Mike and I have been posting many things that support this shift... People should remain vigilant to see what may occur...
This could lead to a strike in the carolinas...
Where is hurricane_lover when we need him?-Eric
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