Ivan Advisories

[Stormsfury]

I'm not saying that Ivan won't eventually turn north ... I just don't see it as soon as guidance continually suggests will occur very shortly ...

Ivan continues to run south and left of guidance, and until we see the pivot (more of a NW turn), the track will have to be shifted a bit left ... and the 12z ECMWF run ... wow, not sure what to make of it just yet ... (getting ready to examine in great detail...) ...

SF

Dont tell that to the GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_012s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036s.gif

The GFS is depicting that a weakness left behind in Frances' wake is that far reaching to grab Ivan more NW is interesting ... a s/w ridge builds in behind it, but quickly a trough kinks in the Central US, thusly creating a weakness in between the Central US ridge and N ATL ridge ... the GFS also appears to initialize a small s/w in the 500mb which shears out in the SR ... I don't know if it's the one to NE of Ivan or not ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[air360]

here is the link for all the levels of the steering currents

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html

[Tommedic]

This NC boy definitely doesn't want a Cat 4 or 5 near the SE coast.

[simplykristi]

This is getting scary

Kristi

[MBryant]

I know a lot of these but please spell out TUTT.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

 08/2345 UTC    13.4N   68.3W    T6.5/6.5        IVAN  --  Atlantic Ocean


[South Tampa]

There are 4 storms since 1850 that are similar to Ivan

They are:

Ivan 2004 150mph 938 MB

Storm 4 1947 161 mph 945 MB
Allen 1980 190MPH 899 MB
Gilbert 1988 184mph 888 MB
Georges 1998 155mph 937 MB

The way I came up with this was to use the following Criteria

1. Storm is stronger than Cat 3
2. Storm becomes a cane south of 15 degrees and east of 60 degrees (Ivan was a cat 4 when he was out at 50 degrees)
3. Storm enters GOM

I ran the data back to 1851

There are two storm that are also similar but missed on or more of the criteria

Camille 1969 190mph 909 MB (she North of 15 degrees and West of 60) SO she is out
Mitch 1998 178 mph 905 MB (West of 75 degrees) Out

I am not a MET but work in Intelligence for the DOD

[shimmer]

T number 6.5 just released

[Stormsfury]

I know a lot of these but please spell out TUTT.

Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough ...

[TLHR]

I was surprised to see that too, especially since Ivan is going due West at the moment.

Just keep in mind that the models for Frances swung back and forth from Wilmington, NC to Miami, FL.

We'll have to wait and see.

[PurdueWx80]

Only one of these models is even updated...the rest are from this afternoon or morning.

[btsgmdad]

Is it me or does it look like the storm might be getting ready to undergo a eyewall replacement cycle?

[Sean in New Orleans]

Anything is possible--but, Ivan is still at a very low latitude. I'm not sure the system is far enough North, yet to have a significant poleward pull.

[Anonymous]

Those models are absolutely out of their minds. For this to verify Ivan would have to INSTANTLY turn NW. They are far, far to east.

[PurdueWx80]

Shear has little or know affect on cat 5 storms. I remeber seeing a sat image of hurricane Alberto (2000). at cat 4 or 5 status,and he cut thru the shear like a hot knife on butter

Alberto was a Cat 3...and only for 24 hours.

[Ixolib]

It was my understanding that everything in the atmosphere ebbs and flows... Is there anything that might cause the high to back in toward the SW?

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

  HURRICANE IVAN       (AL092004) ON 20040909  0000 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          040909  0000   040909  1200   040910  0000   040910  1200

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    13.4N  68.4W   14.7N  70.9W   16.1N  73.2W   17.0N  74.9W
  BAMM    13.4N  68.4W   14.5N  70.8W   15.6N  72.7W   16.4N  74.1W
  A98E    13.4N  68.4W   14.5N  71.1W   15.7N  73.6W   16.7N  76.0W
  LBAR    13.4N  68.4W   14.9N  71.2W   16.6N  73.7W   17.9N  76.0W
  SHIP       125KTS         122KTS         117KTS         116KTS
  DSHP       125KTS         122KTS         117KTS         116KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          040911  0000   040912  0000   040913  0000   040914  0000

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    17.7N  76.1W   18.6N  77.6W   20.0N  78.9W   21.7N  79.8W
  BAMM    17.2N  74.8W   19.3N  75.4W   22.6N  75.7W   26.2N  74.4W
  A98E    16.9N  78.0W   17.9N  80.2W   18.8N  81.0W   20.5N  80.1W
  LBAR    18.7N  77.9W   19.9N  80.5W   21.7N  81.2W   24.6N  80.3W
  SHIP       120KTS         124KTS         126KTS         112KTS
  DSHP        85KTS          89KTS          76KTS          62KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  13.4N LONCUR =  68.4W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
  LATM12 =  12.5N LONM12 =  65.5W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
  LATM24 =  12.0N LONM24 =  62.6W
  WNDCUR =  125KT RMAXWD =   10NM WNDM12 =  120KT
  CENPRS =  938MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =  140NM RD34SE =  125NM RD34SW =   75NM RD34NW = 140NM

[skysummit]

Something would have to happen to at least slow Frances down. Right now it just looks like it will fool all the models and continue its track on to the west.

[marc21688]

interesting...

[Guest]

remember that lbar did the best with frances....