Ivan Advisories

[Jetman]

8 PM Advisory indeed 125 kt

[PurdueWx80]

What a piece of CRAP. Sure...Ivan is moving NW right now...RRRRRIGHT!



The rest should update by 8:30 EDT or so.

[Hurrilurker]

It looks amazing on IR loops. The last 7+ straight frames show a huge, symmetrical core of intense convection (ie. solid red blob) around a stable, small eye. Frances never looked like that. It's a good thing there's nothing there for it to hit for the next several days, hopefully something will weaken it before it gets close to Jamaica or whatever. If I saw this thing coming at me and I lived anywhere near the coast, I'd be on a plane ASAP. Also looks to me to be moving almost due west the last couple of frames, what's up with that? Seems too extended to call it a wobble.

[BirdyCin]

Reuters confirms 20 dead. A member of parliment estimates 85 percent devastation.
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtm ... ID=6185467

[USAwx1]

I'm no expert, but Ivan has CLEARLY been taking a due west course for the last 2 hours or so. If the elongated shape meant preparation for a northward track, I can't see why it would go from WNW to W at the same time it was allegedly starting to feel northward steering pressures. Just doesn't seem to jive with the laws of physics.

The idea is that the cloud mass is elongated in the direction in which the system is about to turn. e.g., if its elongated westward--that should imply a westward shift in track within 24hrs or if the cloud mass is elongated to the north and the system is headed northwest, a Northerly turn should commense within 24hrs.

[marc21688]

I don't know. The models have been showing a eastward trend for the last couple of runs even if they seem weird.

[MWatkins]

Now even the vaunted GFDL has bailed out on the run west...this is going to affect the CONU guidance for this forecast cycle bigtime.

Whelp...looks like the CMC is the only model that has a handle on Ivan now.

...or is it...?

MW

[South Tampa]

NHCWX radio says that Ivan looks like camille

they are blown away ... Hearing things like that gives me chills

[canegrl04]

I'm scared,too. If Ivan doesn't touch land ,or just the western tip of Cuba,we could possibly have another Camille (190mph) or Mitch (175mph)

[WeatherEmperor]

Is it just me or has the GFDL really been struggling as of lately?

<RICKY>

[calidoug]

As it moves WNW to NW, SSTs actually increase, unfortunately.

And the atmospheric environment is also forecast to improve, i.e. less shear.

[Ixolib]

Can you post the new, updated version?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

Thanks...

[frederic79]

It would be reasonable to think that as Ivan begins to slow and turn more NW that the chances for further strengthening will increase, especially over the warmer waters of the NW Caribbean.

[WeatherEmperor]

Well lets hope it doesnt make landfall like Camille.

<RICKY>

[marc21688]

Im expecting the LBAR to shift a little eastward as well because it is obvious it picks up a sharp turn.

[PurdueWx80]

The 18Z eta takes Ivan WNW, then WEST towards Belize and Nicaragua....a la Mitch. It is the only model I've seen go to this extreme, and I don't buy it...yet....

[BensonTCwatcher]

I can smell the fresh pot of coffee brewing at the NHC...They will need it.

[canegrl04]

Remeber the day before yesterday I posted a pic of Camille and Ivan and said how closely they resemble eachother? Freaks me out,now

[WeatherNLU]

One frame wobble does not indicate west.

No, but the 8PM advisory showing no poleward movement at all in 3 hours might.

[Ixolib]

Can you post the new, updated version?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

Thanks... Next question... What will be the impact of the high over the Rio Grande? Or, is the trough(?) over the N-GOM states that will have the greater influence?