Ivan Advisories

[Novacane]

"Ivan drivin all night, my hands wet on the wheel"
I wanna be survivin Ivan
Stop thrivin Ivan!
Ivan a-be-left-alone
Ivan bourbon, Ivan scotch, ivan beer....


But my favorite is Ivan the Meek, although I guess that's a form of -removed-!

[Johnny]

Jivin' Ivan.

[ColinD]

Ivan is a very healthy storm.. Hope he doesn't become a Category 5 but it may happen

I've been saying for days that won't happen before reaching the NW Caribbean - if at all - in a few days. Think he'll try and make a liar out of me?

[rainstorm]

nothing like looking at death and destruction, knowing people will die.

[canegrl04]

Nice eye.Cane is tightening up. Hes gotta be pumping up to at least 145mph right now.

[x-y-no]

000
URNT12 KNHC 081748
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 08/1748Z
B. 13 DEG 03 MIN N
66 DEG 53 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2663 M
D. 85 KT
E. 316 DEG 011 NM
F. 052 DEG 130 KT
G. 321 DEG 007 NM
H. 951 MB
I. 10 C/ 3077 M
J. 17 C/ 3076 M
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15
N. 12345/07
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF977 0809A IVAN OB 06
MAX FL WIND 130 KT NW QUAD 1746Z.

;

[Matthew5]

The upper low to the west is moving away to the west. While at the same time the hurricane has turned more to the west-northwest. What this doe's is pull the hurricane back into the Outflow quad of the upper low to the west. Which you can clearly see that the outflow is forming on the western quad. In the hurricane has a round shape again as the convection rewraps. Over the last hour or so red has wraped around the eye. This means it is getting stronger. I expect this to become strong as long as it heads more to the west-northwest. Which will keep it far enough away from the upper low. I say 145 at 5pm with a pressure of 945 millibars.

Rainstorm, what happens what happens. That is all you can expect that is really true on this world. It might hit Florida but you don't have to be sorry for you self. The hurricane will do what ever it wents(By what ever god wents) So it is better to watch in prey for the people in Florida. Then to beat your self up.

[mf_dolphin]

While I'm 100% this type of effort we're just not setup to do this. We would be happy to sponsor this and help advertise it but maybe the best thing is to give through normal disaster relief channels. Maybe somebody can find a Grenada relief fund and we can all give through there.

[southerngale]

I added Florida for ya!

[Sanibel]

Ivan is definitely pulling-up for good now.

My best eye-squint says it will come very close to Jamaica - or maybe even north of it. Never a guarantee of course.


The large forward arc band to its WNW is shear interaction with the receding weak ULL edge. Normally I would say this would either keep Ivan in check or even weaken it, but yesterday it had a similar feature before intensifying. Mid-Caribbean climatology says he shouldn't get any stronger while displaying these features. BUT he was hit by shear last night and still increased to 140mph!

No Gilbert here. Too much environmental interference. Wrong type-of structure (so far).

This behavior is suggesting a curving track NW at the downrange...

[chris_fit]

he is sure the devil out there

[opera ghost]

So... about 135mph on the surface?
Wowsers.

[chris_fit]

pressure up. yay.

[clearwater]

Ivan Atakemyshuttersdown

...made me spit diet coke on my keyboard, that one did...

[quickychick]

Ivan the Ignominious.


-qc
(definition here)

[PurdueWx80]

130 kt roughly equates to 135 mph at the surface.

[canegrl04]

Thats slightly higher than last nights reports of 129kts

[Rainband]

ugh Hopefully something happens to spare us from this storm. WE HAVE HAD ENOUGH!!

[x-y-no]

This behavior is suggesting a curving track NW at the downrange...

The billion dollar question is, how far downrange ... :-/

[Josephine96]

I believe Ivan could also become a Cat 5.. he's a dangerous hurricane and us Floridians are holding our breath because we're still cleaning up from Charley and Frances