Hmmm....never was good at yoga!
Ivan Advisories
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Hurricane Cheese
- Category 1
- Posts: 364
- Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:40 am
- Location: Green Bay, WI (UWGB Earth Science Alum)
Ivan The Terrible, Ivan The Destructor, Ivan The.....
Alright, it's nickname time!!
Since Ivan is going to be keeping all of us Hurricane enthusiasts up late these next few nights, I thought it would be fun to lighten the mood and try to think of a few nicknames for him, so feel free to post them here!
By the way, here's the latest IR...
Grrrrrr, Fe Fi Fo Fum I am Ivan...US here I come!!!
Since Ivan is going to be keeping all of us Hurricane enthusiasts up late these next few nights, I thought it would be fun to lighten the mood and try to think of a few nicknames for him, so feel free to post them here!
By the way, here's the latest IR...
Grrrrrr, Fe Fi Fo Fum I am Ivan...US here I come!!!
Last edited by Hurricane Cheese on Wed Sep 08, 2004 1:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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"If we are afraid to be different...how can we make a difference in the world?"
- Rev. John I. Jenkins C.S.C, President, University of Notre Dame
- Rev. John I. Jenkins C.S.C, President, University of Notre Dame
Ivan seems to jog north when he strengthens ...
the 2 pm advisory has ivan up to 140 mph winds and 949 MB pressure. So he has strengthened, which corresponds with a slight jog NW followed by WNW or even slightly WWNW in some frame. This has happened before with Ivan- I think the northward jolt we saw earlier was him strengthening. The ridge seems to be about what you'd expect- approaching the western edge of it, so slightly more north.
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southerngale
- Retired Staff
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
- Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)
my Cowboys 
chadtm80 wrote:Derecho wrote:1) It's actually not particularly different from the NHC track in any major way
2) JB's "forecast" or whatever one can divine from what is vomited forth at great length in his columns, does not necessarily match the Accuweather forecast track.
Like him or not at least he has the respect not to put down other forecasters
And JB does put out a forecast. We are waiting for yours Derecho.
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tracyswfla
- S2K Supporter
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- Location: Rochester, NY
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PerfectStorm
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 85
- Joined: Tue Sep 09, 2003 4:39 pm
Interesting TAMPA AFD
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/TBW/AFDTBW.0409081730
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT WED SEP 8 2004
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...DRY AIR ALOFT OVER N FL PENINSULA
HAMPERING CONVECTIVE DEV THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS
FROM FROM BAY AREA SOUTH. THIS MOISTURE/CONVECTIVE TREND TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT SO WILL HAVE 10 POPS N TO 20 CENTRAL AND 30 POP
SOUTH. SW FLOW KEEPS OVERNIGHT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. FOR THU SHEAR
VORT AXIS OVER THE AREA WITH UPPER TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE N GULF. WHILE SFC RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE PENINSULA TO
PROVIDE DIURNAL SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW COLLISIONS. SOME MODIFYING DRY AIR
REMAINS N SO EXPECT TO SEE POP TREND AGAIN ON THU WITH 40 N TO 60 S
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. BY FRI WEAK SFC RIDGE TO SHIFT TO THE N WITH
NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND POPS.
.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-WED)...HERE WE GO AGAIN? LOOKS LIKE WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH IVAN BY THE TAIL END OF THE WEEKEND...BUT AS USUAL ALL
ELEMENTS OF UPPER RIDGING AND TROUGHING WILL HAVE TO COME TOGETHER
FOR US TO BE NAILED. UNFORTUNATELY...CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAVE
IT AFFECTING FLORIDA SOMEWHERE. WILL BE ABLE TO FOCUS MORE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...SO AS WE ALWAYS SAY...STAY TUNED.
AS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT...A GENERAL NE TO E FLOW AND CONTINUED
DECENT MOISTURE SHOULD FAVOR SCT AFTN/EARLY EVE PCPN INTO SAT
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY...HAVE MAINTAINED SCT AFTN PCPN BUT THIS COULD BE
THE DAY WITH SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF IVAN...SO IT COULD BE FAIRLY DECENT
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NE BREEZE.
FOR MON AND TUE...HAVE GENERALLY LEFT THE FCST TREND ALONE AND ONLY
INCREASED WIND SPEED A TAD AND VEERED THE DIRECTION A LITTLE BASED
ON LATEST TPC TRACK. NO CHANGES TO WED WITH EXPECTED SW FLOW
BEHIND THE STORM...DISCOUNTING THE GFS SHARP RECURVATURE WHICH
IMPLIES N FLOW THROUGHOUT.
&&
.MARINE...GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING
FOR NO HIGHLIGHTS INTO THE WEEKEND. NHC FCST BRINGS HURRICANE IVAN
INTO SE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS LATE SUN INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 89 75 90 / 20 50 20 40
FMY 75 89 74 89 / 30 50 20 50
GIF 75 90 74 91 / 20 50 20 40
SRQ 76 88 75 89 / 20 50 20 40
BKV 75 89 72 90 / 10 40 20 40
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RD
LONG TERM....BSG
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT WED SEP 8 2004
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...DRY AIR ALOFT OVER N FL PENINSULA
HAMPERING CONVECTIVE DEV THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS
FROM FROM BAY AREA SOUTH. THIS MOISTURE/CONVECTIVE TREND TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT SO WILL HAVE 10 POPS N TO 20 CENTRAL AND 30 POP
SOUTH. SW FLOW KEEPS OVERNIGHT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. FOR THU SHEAR
VORT AXIS OVER THE AREA WITH UPPER TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE N GULF. WHILE SFC RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE PENINSULA TO
PROVIDE DIURNAL SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW COLLISIONS. SOME MODIFYING DRY AIR
REMAINS N SO EXPECT TO SEE POP TREND AGAIN ON THU WITH 40 N TO 60 S
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. BY FRI WEAK SFC RIDGE TO SHIFT TO THE N WITH
NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND POPS.
.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-WED)...HERE WE GO AGAIN? LOOKS LIKE WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH IVAN BY THE TAIL END OF THE WEEKEND...BUT AS USUAL ALL
ELEMENTS OF UPPER RIDGING AND TROUGHING WILL HAVE TO COME TOGETHER
FOR US TO BE NAILED. UNFORTUNATELY...CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAVE
IT AFFECTING FLORIDA SOMEWHERE. WILL BE ABLE TO FOCUS MORE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...SO AS WE ALWAYS SAY...STAY TUNED.
AS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT...A GENERAL NE TO E FLOW AND CONTINUED
DECENT MOISTURE SHOULD FAVOR SCT AFTN/EARLY EVE PCPN INTO SAT
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY...HAVE MAINTAINED SCT AFTN PCPN BUT THIS COULD BE
THE DAY WITH SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF IVAN...SO IT COULD BE FAIRLY DECENT
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NE BREEZE.
FOR MON AND TUE...HAVE GENERALLY LEFT THE FCST TREND ALONE AND ONLY
INCREASED WIND SPEED A TAD AND VEERED THE DIRECTION A LITTLE BASED
ON LATEST TPC TRACK. NO CHANGES TO WED WITH EXPECTED SW FLOW
BEHIND THE STORM...DISCOUNTING THE GFS SHARP RECURVATURE WHICH
IMPLIES N FLOW THROUGHOUT.
&&
.MARINE...GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING
FOR NO HIGHLIGHTS INTO THE WEEKEND. NHC FCST BRINGS HURRICANE IVAN
INTO SE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS LATE SUN INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 89 75 90 / 20 50 20 40
FMY 75 89 74 89 / 30 50 20 50
GIF 75 90 74 91 / 20 50 20 40
SRQ 76 88 75 89 / 20 50 20 40
BKV 75 89 72 90 / 10 40 20 40
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RD
LONG TERM....BSG
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Yankeegirl
- Category 5
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cycloneye
- Admin
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Yes you are right TyphoonTim about not take this as a stone but I bring here the information from the models to the board for the members to see how they are ploting and the difrences between them.
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Hurricane Cheese
- Category 1
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- Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:40 am
- Location: Green Bay, WI (UWGB Earth Science Alum)
Pressure dropping like a rock...down 6 mb from this morning...boy that eye is looking more and more defined with each image...
Jamaica should definetly begin some sort of preparations, if they haven't already.
Jamaica should definetly begin some sort of preparations, if they haven't already.
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"If we are afraid to be different...how can we make a difference in the world?"
- Rev. John I. Jenkins C.S.C, President, University of Notre Dame
- Rev. John I. Jenkins C.S.C, President, University of Notre Dame
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Yankeegirl
- Category 5
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- Age: 49
- Joined: Sun May 23, 2004 11:59 pm
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