Ivan Advisories

[Brent]

YIKES!!

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST WED SEP 08 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN EXPECTED TO PASS JUST NORTH OF
BONAIRE...CURACAO AND ARUBA LATER TODAY...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO...

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF
HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...
INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO
PEDERNALES.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...165
KM...NORTHEAST OF BONAIRE AND ABOUT 740 MILES...1190 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF ARUBA...
BONAIRE...AND CURACAO LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THOSE
ISLANDS.

IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
PLANE WAS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...13.1 N... 67.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

none of the above. florida, then atlantic, NC, then either new england or out to sea. got hurricane donna?

[Rainband]

I don't know - I think by now, we all know that these models can change, the paths can change, and there's no certainty in ANY path or landfall area right now. People need to bear that in mind when reading these posts. I, for one, took no offense to her comment, although I did respond back good-naturedly

I was talking about the folks who have no idea about weather and come here for updates. I WAS NOT saying she was flaming, just though under the circumstances the post could scare people for no reason "Florida hit certain" If you were a person with no weather knowledge what would that tell you??

[hurricanedude]

please lock this thread.....

[Canelaw99]

My vote: none of the above....right now, FL looks more likely.... *sigh*

[cycloneye]

Yes those who haved suffered in the last 4 weeks dont deserve another one.

[canegrl04]

She shows Ivan' path moving over,or around Jamaica,then over Cuba,taking Ivan into the Gulf with 145mph sustained winds/180mph gusts. Easily exploding into a cat. 5 after that,I'd say

[Rainband]

No reason to lock it. Everyone take a deep breath and calm down (((HUGS))) to everyone

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap!! We didn't even see the center of Frances and the damage around here was pretty bad.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I don't know - I think by now, we all know that these models can change, the paths can change, and there's no certainty in ANY path or landfall area right now. People need to bear that in mind when reading these posts. I, for one, took no offense to her comment, although I did respond back good-naturedly

I was talking about the folks who have no idea about weather and come here for updates. I WAS NOT saying she was flaming, just though under the circumstances the post could scare people for no reason "Florida hit certain" If you were a person with no weather knowledge what would that tell you??

Thank-you Rainband! my point exactly!

[x-y-no]

ouch ... getting stronger again.

[hurricanedude]

she meant no harm...and no she is not immune....this just got to carried away to fast...lets relax and start over

[Canelaw99]

[JTD]

Was that Oreleon Sydney? She is great.

[Rainband]

she meant no harm...and no she is not immune....this just got to carried away to fast...lets relax and start over

I agree lets squash this

[canegrl04]

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

she meant no harm...and no she is not immune....this just got to carried away to fast...lets relax and start over

no prob....

[ColinD]

Definitely worthy of 2 exclamation marks.

[hurricanedude]

UKMET shows this thing hitting JAX....LOL

little humor...starting over

[chris_fit]

FL