Ivan Advisories

[HeatherAKC]

The GFS has had a pronounced right of track bias through the last couple of storms. As long as the track it somewhat to the east (right) of Florida...I feel less confident that this will actually happen.

That's what I gathered was your reasoning when I read your post. Although I can see how someone could get confused....

[Frank P]

if you view this loop and insert the NHC forecast track, at best Ivan might be 10 miles (+/- 5) right of the projected track.

So its pretty much right where it should be...

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rickk/ivan.html

[Hurricane Cheese]

ahhh ya beat me to posting it...!


I would say direction between 280-285.


And the eye is for sure looking more defined....

[Stormcenter]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html

eye becoming better defined, as well.

Don't look at the Sat. loops so hard you'll start
getting a headache.

[x-y-no]

yeah, this is a definite trend more northerly than he's been.

Getting more symmetrical again, and the high cloud tops are wrapping around. He's looking better in visual too.

[msbee]

http://www.spiceislandertalkshop.com/talkshop/

http://www.stormcarib.com/help

[bev]

Maybe the FDA can pass out sedatives to all GOM residents?

Excellent idea! Sedatives, a case of Corona... Ivan Who?

[quickychick]

Well, now...that narrows it down quite a bit, doesn't it? :lol:

Well, it's narrower than my hindquarters if that counts for anything.

I am really starting to sweat this storm.

-qc

[quickychick]

Maybe the FDA can pass out sedatives to all GOM residents? :lol:

Excellent idea! :D Sedatives, a case of Corona... Ivan Who?

I'm about to rig up an IV of Jagermeister. Plop, plop, fizz, fizz, oh what a relief....

-qc

[calidoug]

Here's another nice loop for the bigger picture:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[Rainband]

They are in my thoughts and prayers.

[hurricanedude]

and JB has a job most of us would love to havw..LOL

[Lebowsky]

I've got a prescription for valium on account of fear of flying, think I'll spend the weekend high as a kite.

I am in full flight mode now, not even thinking about riding it out.

[Stormcenter]

So far so bad with the globals. The CMC is once again well west of the other models and since it is a member of the Supersenmble it's going to drag that model to the west.

The GFS is closer to the FL coast but still out to sea. I would feel better if this model was bringing Ivan into FL IMHO.

Nogaps at 12Z wants to take Ivan right up the state.

Looks like we are seeing the low we discussed yesterday (and yeah! saw it in the 5am discussion) start to cut off as the troughing in the Central Atlantic is pushing down on 70W.

MW

Mike why would you want the GFS to show Ivan going into FL?!?!?!?
Also, what is your point about the cutt off low? I thought you lived in Miami so why would want these models to focus on Florida, I'm confused
here.

Actually...it's not what you may think reading your other posts.

The GFS has had a pronounced right of track bias through the last couple of storms. As long as the track it somewhat to the east (right) of Florida...I feel less confident that this will actually happen.

If the MODEL track were on Florida...I would feel better about the storms chances of missing us to the west.

The GFS continues to insist that a mil-level low will nose down part of the Atlantic ridge and NOGAPS is somewhat in agreement with that solution. Just pointing out that feature.

Please do not put me on record that I WANT to have this storm hit here. Couldn't be further from the truth. I DO NOT WANT ANY PART OF THIS HURRRICANE. Just pointing out the features...sorry I am not blindly forecasting this storm to go into Texas at this time...I call them like I see them...and I don't see the CMC solution verifying.

MW

Mike thanks for the xplanation and I didn't mean to imply you wanted
Ivan to come your way. By the way just between you and me I think you (Miami, Fl) maybe in the clear this time around with Ivan, but don't tell anyone I said that.

Here he comes.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[TyphoonTim]

This question is not really related to Ivan, but on the Wisconsin loop (http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rickk/ivan.html) did anyone notice the short line of storms that blew up over Haiti and moved north like a wave before dissapearing. Anyone know what that is? Looked like a wave of disturbed air or something, but it was interesting. Also seems to be one shooting off the east coast of Florida. Something else I noticed was the all the varied wind directions west of Ivan - clouds were getting sheared towards the SW around Cuba, then some were abruptly changing direction north of Panama. Very interesting stuff. Glad I found this site!

[hurricanedude]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[Brent]

any observations yet?

[Novacane]

Say what you will about JB and Accu-Weather; cheap shots are easy.

To those that say AW has been wrong with almost all hurricanes this season and last, can you verify that? What exactly does "wrong" mean? I guess I would consider a post like that to be a lot more credible if was actually backed up with some evidence. Same goes for the constant JB bashing that some on this board seem to want to perpetuate.

I've never seen anyone nail every forecast exactly right all the time. Even the NHC blows one now and then. Not that they would admit to that. Bastardi, on the other hand, generally does own up to his blown forecasts.

It's instructive that most of the respectable professional mets on this board don't bash the forecasts of others. One can have a difference of opinion without feeling the need to sling mud.

[andrew_the_beast]

No doubt about it Florida seems to be in the middle of IVAN. Moving WNW and trying to making it more NW as of latest images!! Look for possible CAT 5 by this evening! imo

[Brent]

NOGAPS shows it paralleling the Florida West Coast and then landfalling around Cedar Key, much like Charley was supposed to do.