Ivan Advisories

[chadtm80]

1) It's actually not particularly different from the NHC track in any major way

2) JB's "forecast" or whatever one can divine from what is vomited forth at great length in his columns, does not necessarily match the Accuweather forecast track.

Like him or not at least he has the respect not to put down other forecasters

[Derek Ortt]

thats just the GFS being GFS

It was horrible with Frances... I'm still waiting for Frances to make landfall in the Carolinas

[Stormcenter]

So far so bad with the globals. The CMC is once again well west of the other models and since it is a member of the Supersenmble it's going to drag that model to the west.

The GFS is closer to the FL coast but still out to sea. I would feel better if this model was bringing Ivan into FL IMHO.

Nogaps at 12Z wants to take Ivan right up the state.

Looks like we are seeing the low we discussed yesterday (and yeah! saw it in the 5am discussion) start to cut off as the troughing in the Central Atlantic is pushing down on 70W.

MW

Mike why would you want the GFS to show Ivan going into FL?!?!?!?
Also, what is your point about the cutt off low? I thought you lived in Miami so why would want these models to focus on Florida, I'm confused
here.

[rainstorm]

plenty could weaken it

[jlauderdal]

[quote="Steve H."]Looking at the latest NOGAPS, it shows Ivan crssing Cuba near Havana, then takes him up the West Central peninsula at day 5/6. 12Z GFS has the cyclone crossing central Cuba very slowly, then moving NNE over the Bahamas with a strong ridge in place to the north. Remember the GFS performed quite well with Frances in this pattern, predicting the stall over Grand Bahama Island and the hugging of the coast near Melbourne 84 hours out. Canadian is still staying with a more westerly course. Awaiting more runs, but have a feeling that the NHC will shift this track slightly to the right from the 11am advisory. We'll see.....hope he goes out into the Atlantic!!....but I doubt it. Cheers!![/quothere will not be any change until 11 pm at the earliest, if then. NHC needs more data before they start making big changes to the track. GFS had frances busting through the ridge and we knew that wasnt happening so unless something can knock down heights the gfs cant verify.

[ilmc172pilot]

I hope and pray he becomes a fish, Florida has been pounded enough, and when and if he passes florida and continues his N or NW track....thats more heavy rain, tornadoes, and flooding up the eastern seaboard.......rivers are at peak levels, standing water is causing mosquitos to be horrible......a lot of people are going to need a lot of help if this track hold true.......supplies and prayers from everyone are in order....

[Stormcenter]

Looking at the latest NOGAPS, it shows Ivan crssing Cuba near Havana, then takes him up the West Central peninsula at day 5/6. 12Z GFS has the cyclone crossing central Cuba very slowly, then moving NNE over the Bahamas with a strong ridge in place to the north. Remember the GFS performed quite well with Frances in this pattern, predicting the stall over Grand Bahama Island and the hugging of the coast near Melbourne 84 hours out. Canadian is still staying with a more westerly course. Awaiting more runs, but have a feeling that the NHC will shift this track slightly to the right from the 11am advisory. We'll see.....hope he goes out into the Atlantic!!....but I doubt it. Cheers!!

The GFS is completely lost at the moment.

[x-y-no]

Umm ... did the GFS really get Frances' stall in the right place that far out? I would have sworn it had her stalling up by the FL/GA border later than that.

At any rate, we're still looking much more than 84 hours out right now,and IMHO the GFS performance overall is atrocious beyond 72 hours. What's more, the bias in that range and even less is to underdo the Atlantic ridge.

[Brent]

The GFS is officially going in the trash can. No way that'll happen.

[Sanibel]

Frances maintained some of her original intensity as a more widely-distributed storm. The Gulf Stream aided this by making her bands stronger as she expanded. You can be glad the original form didn't maintain...

[calidoug]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

eye becoming better defined, as well.

[MWatkins]

So far so bad with the globals. The CMC is once again well west of the other models and since it is a member of the Supersenmble it's going to drag that model to the west.

The GFS is closer to the FL coast but still out to sea. I would feel better if this model was bringing Ivan into FL IMHO.

Nogaps at 12Z wants to take Ivan right up the state.

Looks like we are seeing the low we discussed yesterday (and yeah! saw it in the 5am discussion) start to cut off as the troughing in the Central Atlantic is pushing down on 70W.

MW

Mike why would you want the GFS to show Ivan going into FL?!?!?!?
Also, what is your point about the cutt off low? I thought you lived in Miami so why would want these models to focus on Florida, I'm confused
here.

Actually...it's not what you may think reading your other posts.

The GFS has had a pronounced right of track bias through the last couple of storms. As long as the track it somewhat to the east (right) of Florida...I feel less confident that this will actually happen.

If the MODEL track were on Florida...I would feel better about the storms chances of missing us to the west.

The GFS continues to insist that a mil-level low will nose down part of the Atlantic ridge and NOGAPS is somewhat in agreement with that solution. Just pointing out that feature.

Please do not put me on record that I WANT to have this storm hit here. Couldn't be further from the truth. I DO NOT WANT ANY PART OF THIS HURRRICANE. Just pointing out the features...sorry I am not blindly forecasting this storm to go into Texas at this time...I call them like I see them...and I don't see the CMC solution verifying.

MW

[Hurricane Cheese]

Here's the loop...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

You can see the eye becoming more and more defined.

It'll be VERY interesting to see what RECON finds once they get back into the storm.

[Lowpressure]

Current track does not have that much to do with the point where he recurves northward. It really does not mean much currently. It may move models around some but it really matters after 48 hours.

[c5Camille]

way way too early to tell...

[jlauderdal]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html

eye becoming better defined, as well.

well more likely than if it kept driving west but quite honeslty this was expected although they were forecasting it to do this in 12-24 and it started quick so its wait and see..all depends on the situation upstream in 3-4 days.

[GalvestonDuck]

Well, now...that narrows it down quite a bit, doesn't it?

[Hurrilurker]

He sure is looking good on the satellite pics right now....you can see his eye becoming more and more evident while running the loops

Looking at the visible loop today, it's incredible how quickly he pulled it together after getting a little separation from SA. Outflow is losing the turbulence and almost perfect symmetry is rapidly returning. And there is no doubt now that the northern turn is happening, looks considerably closer to straight NW now. In fact if it doesn't stop turning now it may still hit Hispaniola, which I know sounds ridiculous but well...look at it. Until today I didn't really believe this was going to be a Florida storm, but it's not looking good.

[calidoug]

Lowpressure, say what? If the storm were to move due N, say, for 48 hours, that wouldn't mean much?

Current movement helps to define the strength of the ridge to the N, which matters a great deal.

[quickychick]

Mike, not to be a giant azzkisser, but I very much enjoy your forecasts and thoughts.

-qc