Floydbuster's 4th Ivan forecast...

[Anonymous]

Hurricane Ivan Forecast #4
Wednesday September 8, 2004 12pm
Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
DISCLAIMER: This is NOT Official.. USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO
Ivan is holding at a very dangerous 140 mph / 955 mb. While it may slightly weaken in the next 12-18 hours, that is not reflected in my forecast.

My track is farther south of the NHC. Given the lower latitude and the rather fast motion, I am farther south and faster than the NHC. I expect the ridge to stay built in longer than the NHC thinks, however.... things can change. Remember, "Isidore will move west", and one tiny bump south, probably saved downtown New Orleans from a category 5 hit.

As for intensity, as stated before, it may slightly weaken in the next 12-18 hours, that is not reflected in my forecast. I expect a very strong hurricane approching the north Gulf Coast in 5 days, REALLY have higher confidence given the fact, that in my forecast, no land areas will be affecting Ivan. I expect a few fluctuations and ERC's.

12 HRS-- 13.6N-- 69.3W-- 125 kt
24 HRS-- 14.8N-- 73.6W-- 130 kt
36 HRS-- 15.6N-- 77.1W-- 125 kt
48 HRS-- 17.3N-- 81.3W-- 135 kt
72 HRS-- 20.0N-- 84.0W-- 130 kt
96 HRS-- 23.0N-- 86.3W-- 135 kt
120 HRS- 26.6N-- 88.0W-- 135 kt

[GOMer]

Nice forecast - keept up the good work

[chris_fit]

Thanks! interesting predictions!

[~SirCane]

oh dang!

[Stormtrack03]

I hate to do this, but I am not confident in your forecast. I am sticking with the NHC track as of this moment, until I see some evidence otherwise. I do respect ur thoughts though .

[~SirCane]

Joe B would agree with ya Floyd.

[Cape Verde]

I'm certain that Jamaicans like your forecast better than the NHC's.

[canegrl04]

I agree with your forecast. NHC seems to be locked in a pattern of turning storms north and they don't happen (Frances).

[CaptinCrunch]

GOM, all the way!!

Landfall between New Orleans and Gulf Port, MS

[AlabamaDave]

I don't even want to think about a 135KT hurricane threatening New Orleans (or anyone for that matter).

I'm skeptical that Ivan will retain this much intensity, but, then again, I am always highly highly skeptical of intensity forecasts. They never seem to stay that strong for that long of a period.

[Stormcenter]

Hurricane Ivan Forecast #4
Wednesday September 8, 2004 12pm
Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
DISCLAIMER: This is NOT Official.. USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO
Ivan is holding at a very dangerous 140 mph / 955 mb. While it may slightly weaken in the next 12-18 hours, that is not reflected in my forecast.

My track is farther south of the NHC. Given the lower latitude and the rather fast motion, I am farther south and faster than the NHC. I expect the ridge to stay built in longer than the NHC thinks, however.... things can change. Remember, "Isidore will move west", and one tiny bump south, probably saved downtown New Orleans from a category 5 hit.

As for intensity, as stated before, it may slightly weaken in the next 12-18 hours, that is not reflected in my forecast. I expect a very strong hurricane approching the north Gulf Coast in 5 days, REALLY have higher confidence given the fact, that in my forecast, no land areas will be affecting Ivan. I expect a few fluctuations and ERC's.

12 HRS-- 13.6N-- 69.3W-- 125 kt
24 HRS-- 14.8N-- 73.6W-- 130 kt
36 HRS-- 15.6N-- 77.1W-- 125 kt
48 HRS-- 17.3N-- 81.3W-- 135 kt
72 HRS-- 20.0N-- 84.0W-- 130 kt
96 HRS-- 23.0N-- 86.3W-- 135 kt
120 HRS- 26.6N-- 88.0W-- 135 kt

Good analysis.

I think the NHC will eventually shift their forecast track in the
general same position as yours in due time. As you said the 2 key things
are Ivan's lower latitude and forward speed. If this pans out look for another round of major evacuations somewhere along the US coastline
especially if he comes in as cat.4-5.