8 AM=12.5n-65.5w,140 mph,west at 16 mph,955 mbs

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST WED SEP 08 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES WESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO PEDERNALES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
COAST OF HAITI LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED BY A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5
WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES...310 KM...EAST OF BONAIRE...NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF IVAN NORTH OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE
CENTER CLOSE TO THOSE ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WAS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN..

REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...12.5 N... 65.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

[mf_dolphin]

At least the pressure is up! We'll see is the winds reflect this over the next couple of hours.

[Stratosphere747]

When is it gonna start taking this WNW turn? Is is me or have they not been saying the same thing for 2 day now?

[ColinD]

Hmm. That 955 mb vortex data message isn't available yet. Guess there's a lag.

[TS Zack]

the NHC has been syaing a West-Northwest turn since Day 1! The first track, has it happened? NO

[cycloneye]

Yes at least the pressure is up a little meaning not deepening now.That may be related to the interaction with South America.

[southerngale]

Here's the advisory archives. You can look up what motions were expected.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/refresh/IVAN+shtml/080833.shtml?

[CharlieGirl]

Last night's 11p discussion said the turn was expected within 24 hrs.

[Derek Ortt]

the hurricane is weakening because atmospheric conditions are not at all favorable for development at the present time. That big UL has destroyed all western outflow

[AussieMark]

in the 5 am NHC Discussion was the following:

HOWEVER...TIMING CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES IS
IMPOSSIBLE...EXCEPT IN THE SHORT TERM...WHICH IVAN APPEARS TO BE
STARTING TO GO THROUGH NOW. ONCE THAT CYCLE ENDS...IVAN SHOULD
BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AGAIN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE NEGATIVE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTH COAST OF SOUTH AMERICAin NHC discussion on Ivan they said

could this be a reason for increased pressure

????

[clueless newbie]

the hurricane is weakening because atmospheric conditions are not at all favorable for development at the present time.

Definitively. The outflow channel to the north has closed as well. The outer bands are again not wrapped in. The south side is quite eroded - probably the dry air/land interaction. Eye very indistinct. Still, ATT the core itself looks solid. And Ivan has already shown twice that it can intensify almost at will.

[jlauderdal]

When is it gonna start taking this WNW turn? Is is me or have they not been saying the same thing for 2 day now?

they said in the next 12 to 24 hours per the 8 am advisory...ivan is on track. its not plowing into in south america and its not making a beeline west like a ship out of control..its doing exactly what the setup will allow.

[AussieMark]

Ivan seems to be improving now.

he looked like crap at 5 am despite being upgraded to 140 mph.