Am I missing the 5AM discussion?

[WeatherNLU]

Checked all the back alleys and a few other places. Shannon must be writing up a dousy.

[Matthew5]

109
WTNT44 KNHC 080858
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 08 2004

IVAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING. THE MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 133 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...
WHICH EQUALS A 120-KT SURFACE WIND. THE HIGHEST WIND OBSERVED BY
DROPSONDES WAS 150 KT AT 923 MB IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL. THE
CENTRAL HAS ALSO BEEN AS LOW AS 947 MB...BUT THE DROPSONDE MEASURED
A SURFACE WIND OF 57 KT...SO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS LIKELY LOWER.
BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 120 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/14. IVAN HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH OF
DUE WEST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT IS
ORIENTED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE HIGH IS SEPARATING FRANCES TO THE
NORTH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FROM IVAN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...THE HIGH/RIDGE IS FORECAST BY
ALL THE MODELS THE GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS FRANCES LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. BY
DAY 3...A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST
IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE WEST COAST AND AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS PATTERN
RESULTS IN A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO DIG
SOUTHWARD AND ERODE/WEAKEN THE RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS IS HOW THEY HANDLE A YET-TO-DEVELOP MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS DEVELOP THE
LOW AND THEN QUICKLY WEAKEN IT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS BY DAY 4. THE GFS...HOWEVER...HANGS ONTO
THE LOW LONGER AND KEEPS IT FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH ERODES THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE SOONER AND ALLOWS IVAN TO TURN
NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS WHEN THE HURRICANE IS NEAR JAMAICA. FOR THE
TIME BEING...THE GFS AND THE BAM MODELS ARE CONSIDERED TO BE STRONG
EASTERN OUTLIERS AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...TIMING CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES IS
IMPOSSIBLE...EXCEPT IN THE SHORT TERM...WHICH IVAN APPEARS TO BE
STARTING TO GO THROUGH NOW. ONCE THAT CYCLE ENDS...IVAN SHOULD
BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AGAIN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE NEGATIVE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTH COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. INTENSITY DECREASES
AT 72HR AND 120HR REFLECT POSSIBLE PASSAGES OVER JAMAICA AND CUBA.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0900Z 12.4N 64.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 13.1N 67.2W 120 KT
24HR VT 09/0600Z 14.2N 70.1W 125 KT
36HR VT 09/1800Z 15.5N 72.5W 130 KT
48HR VT 10/0600Z 16.8N 75.0W 130 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 19.1N 78.7W 120 KT
96HR VT 12/0600Z 21.5N 81.5W 130 KT
120HR VT 13/0600Z 25.0N 82.5W 120 KT

My notes...

To note is over the last few hours that upper low to the west of the hurricane. Is starting to cut off the western Quads outflow. The system has also becomed slightly less Oreganized because of the eywall replacement(Which he did talk about)...The shear is up 10 knots around/over the system. Just to the west of the system is 20 knot shear by cimss. Which also shows this shear increasing at the same time. So there is a increasly unfavable upper level enviroment over the next 24 to 36 hours as the tropical cyclone moves to the west/west-northwest. The waters under this system(The laten heat for the hurricane)is going to go through a area of less energy to feed the tropcial cyclone. I expect more to the left of the nhc track. More in line with the Cmc just left of the new ukmet. The thing to note is the Ecmwf run 13 runs with Frances to its hard not to went to use it. While at the same time the Gfs/Gfdl(Which the Gfdl at the 06z shows a landfall on the coast of Florida or close to a landfall in Florida)The Gfdl/Gfs did fairly poorly out over 72 hours with Frances. While doing a good job with in the first 12 to 48 hour time frame. The tropical cyclone as it moves into the western Gulf of Mexico should find the warmest water temperatures in the Atlantic basin. Which by that time the upper level low could very well be out.