Man oh Man...Recon

[MWatkins]

Right at 0600Z...a little east...and only through obs 4...man oh man...947 mb.

And a 20 NM wide eye.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/URNT12.0409080636

MW

[Greg]

So what is your interpretation? obs 4???

I liked your webcast, btw.

[Ajarens]

MWatkins:

I have no knowledge with data of that sort, but after getting buried with Frances and power back on tonight, can you share with me your gut thoughts are for this storm

[MWatkins]

So what is your interpretation? obs 4???

I liked your webcast, btw.

Thanks! We do what we can..wish we could have had callers tonight...but thanks for tuning in!

The significance of obs 4 was that they were able to find 118 knot flight winds with only 4 obs...they will undoubetly find stronger winds later on.

MW

[Matthew5]

This hurricane should be looking "good" once that satellite comes back on!

[Fego]

I'm lost.. sorry.. whats going on with the satellite?.. I have read about an eclipse!

[FritzPaul]

This time of the year during the nighttime hours the earth comes between the satellite and sun, thus blocking solar rays from hitting the panels on the sat.. This causes them to power down until the rays can hit the panels again. I think it lasts only about 2 hrs, and they should be up shortly.

[Thunder44]

URNT12 KNHC 080751
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 08/0751Z
B. 12 DEG 21 MIN N
64 DEG 29 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2628 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 137 DEG 133 KT
G. 054 DEG 13 NM
H. 948 MB
I. 8 C/ 3071 M
J. 16 C/ 3076 M
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C18
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/2 NM
P. AF977 0709A IVAN OB 12
MAX FL WIND 133 KT NE QUAD 0739Z.
MAX FL TEMP 20C 208/7 NM FROM FL CENTER.

Probably near 140mph next advisory.

[Matthew5]

They will likely keep it at 135 mph because of the hurricane is becoming less oreganized. With the eye now not showing...They might even down grade it to a cat3? Add on top of that the pressure is now up to 948 millibars.

[Thunder44]

They will likely keep it at 135 mph because of the hurricane is becoming less oreganized. With the eye now not showing...They might even down grade it to a cat3?

The storm probably got stronger when the recon left last evening. So when they got in this morning, they found a stronger storm, but it's probably stopped strenghtning for now. They won't downgrade with the info they have on it now.