IVAN HEADING NORTHWEST???

[hial2]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


Last few IR seem to indicate so...Was this forecasted???

[Matthew5]

IF so the Ecmwf is doing good

[ericinmia]

it appears that way... i am checking into some NRL sat loops that have better perspective...
-Eric

Edit:

Check this: It is a Def. NW movement for now at least!
CLICK MOST RECENT BUTTON & set to LARGE
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... 93E.INVEST,

[Thunder44]

There was an eclispe for a while so it's hard to tell a motion from just two recent images.

[mobilebay]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html


Last few IR seem to indicate so...Was this forecasted???

NO. It looks like the southern part of the Cane is eroding. The recon fixes are about 5 hours apart and only show about a .4 degree north motion.Also, the last recon report was at 0100. Only 45 Minutes before that sattelite.

[southerngale]

I guess I'm blind. I don't see a NW motion.

[ericinmia]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html


Last few IR seem to indicate so...Was this forecasted???

NO. It looks like the southern part of the Cane is eroding. The recon fixes are about 5 hours apart and only show about a .4 degree north motion.Also, the last recon report was at 0100. Only 45 Minutes before that sattelite.

If you watch my link from above... You will see the Eye, center of circulation is moving nw...
-Eric

[mobilebay]

Look at the latest floater. The southeast side of Frances is eroding. Also notice the thunderstorms developing to the east. I believe our friend Mr. ULL is starting to shear Ivan. Also there is limited outflow in that direction.

[hial2]

Draw a line from the cane's eye before the eclipse to the latest and you will see a definite wnw/nw movement

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[southerngale]

I did Eric. I still don't see it.

[ericinmia]

Before Eclipse:


After Eclipse:

-Eric

[ericinmia]

Before Eclipse:


After Eclipse:

-Eric

[ericinmia]

That appears to be at least a wnw motion... This may be the start of the recurveture. Please don't let the Euro be on the money!

Here is another good angle... plot the NHC track on there, it appears to be joggin wnw to it for now. It may possibly be joggin to the north of that track!!
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rickk/ivan.html

-Eric

[Thunder44]

That appears to be at least a wnw motion... This may be the start of the recurveture. Please don't let the Euro be on the money!

Here is another good angle... plot the NHC track on there, it appears to be joggin wnw to it for now. It may possibly be joggin to the north of that track!!
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rickk/ivan.html

-Eric

Maybe just a wobble.

[WeatherNLU]

If that's NW, then I need to get a lesson in directions.

[Derek Ortt]

we should not focus on wobbles

this storm has been wobbling a couple of tenths north, only to drop them. Go by recon fixes, this is still moving to the west

[arlwx]

If this storm curves so that early Saturday it approaches 15 north and 72 west, my SWAG would be that it misses FL ((good)) and hits further up the east coast in the Carolinas (which may be bad for us, as we will still be waterlogged from Frances).

However, it is still too early for FL to stick a fork in this storm yet... wait until the weekend.

[arlwx]

oops, mental math mistake, late Thursday...

But it may not recurve/slow down that much. A slower recurve would send it to Jamaica ((or possibly just south of there)) on Saturday and then we are possibly into the Charley scenario again.

It all depends on the westward speed of Ivan.

[Nimbus]

Looks like this was just a wobble before an eyewall replacement cycle. Track does not look like it has changed that much. On her present heading it appears she would cross 15 N a little further west near 74 or 75 W.

[arlwx]

Yes, that would be the Jamaica-brushing track.