What will Ivan's strength be after it passes Cuba?

[logybogy]

For the sake of argument, let's say the NHC track holds.

Will Cuba weaken Ivan much? Will he threaten the west coast of Florida as a Cat 4, Cat 3, Cat 2?

I'm very interested in the intensity forecast once Ivan gets into the gulf. Cuba didn't really rip Charley up that much.

What about shear? Will conditions become unfavorable for Ivan in the gulf and Florida straits?

[caneseddy]

Regarding the Cuba part

It all depends where Ivan hits Cuba:

1. if it follows the NHC track and it's going at 145-150mph which means western Cuba, then it won't have any impact on Ivan

2. if it goes throughg Cuba and cuts right across the spine as it was being mentioned in some of the model runs last then it would some strength

3. if it makes a sharp curve and hits eastern cuba around guantanamo then no effect

The thing about Cuba is that unlike Hispaniola it doesn't hnave many tall mountains; while Hispaniola has 10,000 ft mountains Cuba only has 7000 foot mountains I believe

[Brent]

If he passes over Western Cuba like Charley, he won't weaken much at all(may not do anything except hold intensity or strengthen). Central Cuba-a little(10-15 mph), Eastern Cuba(a Category, maybe a little more). The first is most likely right now with the second and third behind respectively.

Too early to say how conditions will be in the GOM, but all indications are they will be favorable for strengthening.

[mobilebay]

For the sake of argument, let's say the NHC track holds.

Will Cuba weaken Ivan much? Will he threaten the west coast of Florida as a Cat 4, Cat 3, Cat 2?

I'm very interested in the intensity forecast once Ivan gets into the gulf. Cuba didn't really rip Charley up that much.

What about shear? Will conditions become unfavorable for Ivan in the gulf and Florida straits?

It really comes down to the speed of IVan. If it moves quickly it will not weaken much if at all. However, a very slow motion or stall directly over the Island would weaken it more. Interesting to note that several TC's have actually strengthend near Cuba. Also, with the way the models are jumping around there is no Guarantee it will hit Cuba. One more note. The odds of the Florida pen. getting hit again are extremely low, if I where a betting man I would bet somewhere else. I know someone is going to say that what happened in the last month has nothing to do with the present. May be true but the odds are extremely low.

[MGC]

If Ivan passes over both Jamacia and Cuba expect a Cat 2 when Ivan enters GOM. If Ivan only passes over western Cuba expect a Cat 3 when Ivan enters GOM.....MGC

[paulvogel]

and anything usually will. Keep an eye out, floridians, but everyone else should look out too.