Evening Ivan Forecast... 135KT in SE GOM

[Frank P]

interesting track....the 72 hr to 120hr similar to Camille's track... which was supposed to turn to the NE and hit Florida.... the rest is history....

[Derek Ortt]

if I can use it, can you PM me your real name so that I can give you credit for making the graphic

[B-Bear]

if I can use it, can you PM me your real name so that I can give you credit for making the graphic

You can use it, and I really don't care if you give me credit or not. Nor am I shy about posting my name on the forums.

Brian McKinley

[Anonymous]

Derek..your trek is right on.

Ivan is right on top of your projected path, if you look at the satellite imagery.

[jwelch5]

if I can use it, can you PM me your real name so that I can give you credit for making the graphic

You can use it, and I really don't care if you give me credit or not. Nor am I shy about posting my name on the forums.

Brian McKinley

Ortt is a gentleman to ask to give credit. But then, that is what all professionals are supposed to do. Kudos to Derek.

[B-Bear]

if I can use it, can you PM me your real name so that I can give you credit for making the graphic

You can use it, and I really don't care if you give me credit or not. Nor am I shy about posting my name on the forums.

Brian McKinley

Ortt is a gentleman to ask to give credit. But then, that is what all professionals are supposed to do. Kudos to Derek.

Yeah, I like Derek a lot. That's why I made the track for him.

I figured he has enough to be concerned with right now other than stressing because he can't post graphics.

[Derek Ortt]

thanks for letting me use the graphic

[B-Bear]

No prob.

[CFL]

I like the graphics as I'm not so familiar yet with location of coordinates. The next few days are going to be nail biting ones.

[tailgater]

Derek do you have a clue as to how fast the rest of that track could be. I ask because if it would head toward S/E LA. there are alot of coonasses that wouldn't bink at a storm that for out at 72 hrs. They tell us it likely to take 3 days to move folks away from the surge prone areas

[AL Chili Pepper]

The GFS has been flopping around like a freshly caught mackeral this hurricane season. I've seen the NHC dismiss the GFS's "unreasonable" production on more than one occasion.

[tailgater]

Derek do you have a clue as to how fast the rest of that track could be. I ask because if it would head toward S/E LA. there are alot of coonasses that wouldn't bink at a storm that for out at 72 hrs. They tell us it likely to take 3 days to move folks away from the surge prone areas

[Derek Ortt]

I really dont want to speculate beyond the 5 days

[dhweather]

If you read Derek's forecasts, he acknowledges in bold print about LARGE ERRORS AFTER 72 HOURS,
and I can not stress that enough.

Friday, we'll have a better idea of who is going to get love from Ivan

[btsgmdad]

A borderline Cat 5 entering the Gulf through the Yucatan Channel has always been one of the nightmare scenarios in my book. You would see one of the greatest mass exoduses in the history of mankind.

[B-Bear]

And his dimensions have been increasing as well as his intensity. If he keeps expanding like this he's going to fill the Gulf.

I guess I should buy a lot of property here in Nebraska. Real estate values ought to appreciate significantly here in the midwest if this keeps up.

[skysummit]

If Ivan enters the gulf as a CAT 4 and the track still points toward the central gulf coast, the entire coast of south La will be evacuated. I'm not talking about 36 - 48 hours before landfall, I'm talkin as soon as Ivan enters the southern Gulf. I'm from just north of Grand Isle, La., and there is only 1 way out....HWY 1. Water begins covering the road WEEEEELLLLLl before the storm approaches.

Like btsgmdad says....the greatest mass exodus in the history of mankind.

[caneseddy]

I've seen the NHC dismiss the GFS's "unreasonable" production on more than one occasion

Unless you're Avila, who seems to think the GFS is the god of hurricane models

[SCUBAdude]

Hey Derek, what's your take on the NHC shifting their track to the RIGHT in the 11p.m. advisory.

[Derek Ortt]

they seem to be following the model consensus as is usually done for 5 days