Why the sudden Right trend of the models

[PTPatrick]

The way it looks now nothing(on wundergrounds plot) as far as models go take Ivan west of FL ...this afternoon EVERYTHING was in the GOM. WHY the sudden change of heart? Is this realistic give the fact that Ivan has continued West this long making each modelmore inaccurate with each run?

[BensonTCwatcher]

yeah what are they picking up on???

[chris_fit]

High pressure to be blocking the gulf

[Scott_inVA]

:?: yeah what are they picking up on???

Well the 18Z STILL is trying to bust a ridge over the northern US...2nd run it takes Ivan out fishing then slams and heads WNW as it punches a ridge to the north. Very interesting in that it's not hanging around for days out in the Atl ala Felix and Dennis.

GFS seems to be placing a short wave due east of Florida which weakens the subtropical ridge and Ivan seems to turn up toward the weakness. But the 588 line suddenly retreats up the SE US coast. I don't get it.

Scott

[lilbump3000]

The models dont know what to do. There all following there big brother the GFS one. When that model goes north then all of them go north. When that model go west, then they all go west so expect changes for the next few days.

[Nimbus]

Must be new data. Only thing I can see is a rather long WNW jog recently. Perhaps a track trend further north in the caribbean verified on this?

[dhweather]

Perhaps Florida is sending out a homing signal to the storms?

[BensonTCwatcher]

Thanks It's good to know that folks who watch this much closer than I do see it the same way. See my models shmodels post.... I think we'll have to wait on more data. I hope we don't see an errtaic "correction" of the models like with Frances i.e. on the ridge....

[bigmike]

High pressure to be blocking the gulf

Stacy Stewart stated that in her 5pm update this morning on the nhc advisory.

[ericinmia]

High pressure to be blocking the gulf

Stacy Stewart stated that in her 5pm update this morning on the nhc advisory.

Stacy is a guy....
-Eric

[BensonTCwatcher]

lol, but thrend is nonetheless disturbing. Not that I wish this into mexico or south america either.

[WaryEye]

Yikes!

Am I to understand ( relatively new to understanding hurricanes, though I have learned a lot in 3 weeks...) that Ivan is now plotted to "possibly" go east of Florida or be hit in the SE again? Please tell me they are kidding... Do you have any links?

[Scott_inVA]

Yikes!

Am I to understand ( relatively new to understanding hurricanes, though I have learned a lot in 3 weeks...) that Ivan is now plotted to "possibly" go east of Florida or be hit in the SE again? Please tell me they are kidding... Do you have any links?

Yes.

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

Addendum: in order to do so, Ivan *must* head much more NW...along the order of 310°...he's on 280° now. The GFS soultion ain't gonna happen unless there is an obvious turn to the NW/NNW. Until that happens, no direct route up the EC.

Also, GFS has repeatedly done this all season: once biten, twice shy. Stick with TPC near/medium range.

[Anonymous]

I honestly do not see the big deal.

The models have continued to trend west since yesterday. I have not seen a trend to the right, as of yet. The latest, (5:00pm today) is not that different than at 11:00am today. The NHC hasn't moved their projected track that much since this morning. BUT, I am inclinded to think their 11:00pm track will be a bit farther to the west, based on his current movement. No doubt about it.

I still see a landfall somewhere between Mississippi and the big bend area of Florida.

[Canelaw99]

Big EZ, the models have shifted east tonight, beyond the 5pm....

[Sanibel]

He's been shredding models for 2 days now. He's a classic candidate for Yucatan low-tracker...

[Scott_inVA]

I honestly do not see the big deal.

The models have continued to trend west since yesterday. I have not seen a trend to the right, as of yet. The latest, (5:00pm today) is not that different than at 11:00am today. The NHC hasn't moved their projected track that much since this morning. BUT, I am inclinded to think their 11:00pm track will be a bit farther to the west, based on his current movement. No doubt about it.

I still see a landfall somewhere between Mississippi and the big bend area of Florida.

disagree.

Here's the Tue 0Z map:


contrast that with tonights 0Z:
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

*very* significant shift...may mean nothing as it started in tandem with GFS/GFDL and as noted they've yanked TCs way east all season. Without an obvious NW turn, it's moot.

Scott

[LaBreeze]

The "magical" high in the GOM. Unfortunately it seems to be Florida's year. Nothing getting to the central or west GOM it seems.