11pm Ivan discussion

[Ripopgodazippa]

WTNT44 KNHC 080231
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 07 2004

IVAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING. THE LAST PASS
OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER THROUGH THE EYE SHOWED A
CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 950 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 129
KT AT 700 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 115 KT BASED ON THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KT FROM
ALL AGENCIES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF
IVAN HAS IMPROVED SINCE 00Z AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE IN IVAN
AROUND 06Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/15. IVAN REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES IT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS TO THE EAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT THIS
SEEEMS TO BE RETREATING WESTWARD AS FAST OR FASTER THAN THE
HURRICANE. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A
MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED THEREAFTER.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN AT THE MOMENT. THE GFS MADE A HUGE SHIFT TO THE RIGHT...FROM
PASSING WEST OF FLORIDA TO PASSING 200 NM EAST OF FLORIDA. THE
GFDL ALSO SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...BUT FROM A LEFT OUTLIER INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO
SHIFTS...A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR
THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO THE INTENSITY OF IVAN
WILL BE MAINLY CONTROLLED BY CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES...CHANGES IN
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE...AND LAND INTERACTION. AN SSM/I OVERPASS
AT 0105Z SHOWED AN OUTER EYEWALL STARTING TO FORM...WHICH SUGGEST
THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION CYCLE WILL STOP IN 6-12 HR. HOWEVER...
BY THAT TIME IVAN MAY BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE
HURRICANE WILL PASS OVER SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH 48 HR...THEN REACH WARMER WATER NORTHWEST OF
JAMAICA AFTER 72 HR. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT UPS AND DOWNS IN THE
INTENSITY...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG HURRICANE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...MOST LIKELY CATEGORY 4 BUT POSSIBLY REACHING
CATEGORY 5 AT SOME POINTS.

HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO...AS ANY MOTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NEAR OR OVER THOSE ISLANDS.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 12.1N 63.3W 115 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 12.8N 65.7W 125 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 13.8N 68.8W 130 KT
36HR VT 09/1200Z 14.9N 71.6W 130 KT
48HR VT 10/0000Z 16.3N 74.2W 130 KT
72HR VT 11/0000Z 19.0N 78.5W 120 KT
96HR VT 12/0000Z 21.0N 81.0W 130 KT
120HR VT 13/0000Z 24.0N 83.0W 120 KT

[chris_fit]

yikes

[Canelaw99]

Great discussion!

[Innotech]

possibly...reaching...Cat....5....

Were all doomed I tell you.

[canegrl04]

Possible cat 5 AT SOME POINTS

Hopefully,one of the points won't be when hes coming ashore on the US

[Brent]

Oh my....

IVAN THE TERRIBLE!!!

If the NHC track verifies or is just a little too far left, the storm surge for the Keys(assuming it's a Cat 4) will be massive.

Anyone else see a striking resemblance between Ivan and Charley?

[Cookiely]

A stones throw from Key West or did I get the coordinates wrong. I can't believe this. I really can't.

[Brent]

A stones throw from Key West or did I get the coordinates wrong. I can't believe this. I really can't.

It's a little west of there, but by less than 100 miles.

Charley?

[Cookiely]

A stones throw from Key West or did I get the coordinates wrong. I can't believe this. I really can't.

It's a little west of there, but by less than 100 miles.

Charley?

Thanks Brent for the info on the coordinates.

[ColinD]

I'm a betting man, tonight. Ivan won't reach cat 5 in the eastern caribbean. Maybe in the NW. Call me a fool if it turns out I'm wrong. G'night.

[anjou]

You all realize Saturday is Sept. 11? (Don't mean to be flip about it, not suggesting it means anything.. just that sheesh.)

[dhweather]

blah blah, CAROLINAS!!!!

[hibiscushouse]

I feel sick!

[Ripopgodazippa]

I think its an easy call to say we're writing new history here on these storms. I "predict" after all is said and done, new ground will have been broken.

UNFORTUNATELY...

[cape_escape]

OMG! Not another Charley! They were just showing the poor folks on Pine Island , tonight on the news. Many of whom are still without so much as a roof, let alone electric! And, then there's the people who are trying to rebuild in Punta Gorda!! I can't stand the thought!!! Go away Ivan!!!!!

[B-Bear]

Can you imagine the surf conditions along SA right now....

[Brent]

A stones throw from Key West or did I get the coordinates wrong. I can't believe this. I really can't.

It's a little west of there, but by less than 100 miles.

Charley?

Thanks Brent for the info on the coordinates.

24.0 N/83.0 is right over the Dry Tortugas.

If that doesn't scare you...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

Just one-tenth of a degree west.

[Brent]

You all realize Saturday is Sept. 11? (Don't mean to be flip about it, not suggesting it means anything.. just that sheesh.)

Yes. I hate September 11th. Very bad day...

[dhweather]

It's all work of the devil. I'm sure if you punch in the coorinates and use the proper algorithim, it would = 666.

[SkeetoBite]

OMG! Not another Charley! They were just showing the poor folks on Pine Island , tonight on the news. Many of whom are still without so much as a roof, let alone electric! And, then there's the people who are trying to rebuild in Punta Gorda!! I can't stand the thought!!! Go away Ivan!!!!!

Ivan is much bigger than Charley.

Charley at landfall: hurricane force winds extending 25 miles from center, tropical storm force winds extending 85 miles from center.

Ivan currently: hurricane force winds extending 70 miles from center, tropical storm force winds extending 160 miles from center.

Nearly three times the hurricane force wind field and nearly twice the tropical storm force windfield.