Forecasted to reach 150 mph! OMG...
Hurricane Ivan Forecast/Advisory Number 23
Statement as of 03:00Z on September 08, 2004
at 11 PM AST...0300z...the government of the Dutch Netherland
Antilles has issued a Hurricane Warning for Aruba...Bonaire...and
Curacao. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for St. Vincent...
The Grenadines...and Grenada and its dependencies.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the guajira peninsula of Colombia...and for the entire northern
coast of Venezuela.
At 8 PM AST...0000z...the government of Trinidad and Tobago have
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Trinidad and Tobago.
At 11 PM AST...0300z...the government of St. Lucia has discontinued
the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia.
A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti on Wednesday.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of Ivan.
Hurricane center located near 12.1n 63.3w at 08/0300z
position accurate within 20 nm
present movement toward the west or 280 degrees at 15 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 950 mb
eye diameter 10 nm
Max sustained winds 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt.
64 kt....... 60ne 20se 20sw 60nw.
50 kt.......100ne 75se 35sw 100nw.
34 kt.......140ne 125se 50sw 140nw.
12 ft seas..300ne 140se 140sw 300nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 12.1n 63.3w at 08/0300z
at 08/0000z center was located near 12.0n 62.6w
forecast valid 08/1200z 12.8n 65.7w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.
64 kt... 60ne 20se 20sw 60nw.
50 kt...100ne 75se 35sw 100nw.
34 kt...150ne 125se 50sw 150nw.
Forecast valid 09/0000z 13.8n 68.8w
Max wind 130 kt...gusts 160 kt.
64 kt... 60ne 45se 20sw 45nw.
50 kt...100ne 75se 45sw 100nw.
34 kt...150ne 125se 75sw 125nw.
Forecast valid 09/1200z 14.9n 71.6w
Max wind 130 kt...gusts 160 kt.
64 kt... 60ne 45se 30sw 60nw.
50 kt...100ne 75se 50sw 90nw.
34 kt...150ne 125se 125sw 125nw.
Forecast valid 10/0000z 16.3n 74.2w
Max wind 130 kt...gusts 160 kt.
50 kt...100ne 75se 50sw 75nw.
34 kt...150ne 125se 125sw 125nw.
Forecast valid 11/0000z 19.0n 78.5w
Max wind 120 kt...gusts 145 kt.
50 kt...100ne 75se 50sw 75nw.
34 kt...150ne 125se 125sw 125nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 12/0000z 21.0n 81.0w
Max wind 130 kt...gusts 160 kt.
Outlook valid 13/0000z 24.0n 83.0w
Max wind 120 kt...gusts 145 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 12.1n 63.3w
next advisory at 08/0900z
forecaster Beven
11pm Ivan-135 mph winds, Hurr. Warning ABC Islands
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38266
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 23
Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on September 07, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Ivan moving westward through the southeastern
Caribbean...new hurricane warnings issued...
at 11 PM AST...0300z...the government of the Dutch Netherland
Antilles has issued a Hurricane Warning for Aruba...Bonaire...and
Curacao. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for St. Vincent...
The Grenadines...and Grenada and its dependencies.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the guajira peninsula of Colombia...and for the entire northern
coast of Venezuela.
At 8 PM AST...0000z...the government of Trinidad and Tobago have
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Trinidad and Tobago.
At 11 PM AST...0300z...the government of St. Lucia has discontinued
the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia.
A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti on Wednesday.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of Ivan.
At 11 PM AST...0300z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 12.1 north...longitude 63.3 west or about 110 miles...
175 km...west of Grenada. This position is also about 335 miles...
540 km...east of Bonaire.
Ivan is moving toward the west near 17 mph...28 km/hr. A gradual
turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next 24
hours. This motion should bring the center of Ivan north of
Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao on Wednesday. However...any
deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring the center
close to those islands.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with higher
gusts. This makes Ivan an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Strengthening is forecast
during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb...28.05 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area.
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing flash floods
and mud slides...can be expected along the path of Ivan..
repeating the 11 PM AST position...12.1 N... 63.3 W. Movement
toward...west near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 950 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am AST followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am AST.
Forecaster Beven
Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on September 07, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Ivan moving westward through the southeastern
Caribbean...new hurricane warnings issued...
at 11 PM AST...0300z...the government of the Dutch Netherland
Antilles has issued a Hurricane Warning for Aruba...Bonaire...and
Curacao. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for St. Vincent...
The Grenadines...and Grenada and its dependencies.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the guajira peninsula of Colombia...and for the entire northern
coast of Venezuela.
At 8 PM AST...0000z...the government of Trinidad and Tobago have
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Trinidad and Tobago.
At 11 PM AST...0300z...the government of St. Lucia has discontinued
the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia.
A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti on Wednesday.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of Ivan.
At 11 PM AST...0300z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 12.1 north...longitude 63.3 west or about 110 miles...
175 km...west of Grenada. This position is also about 335 miles...
540 km...east of Bonaire.
Ivan is moving toward the west near 17 mph...28 km/hr. A gradual
turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next 24
hours. This motion should bring the center of Ivan north of
Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao on Wednesday. However...any
deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring the center
close to those islands.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with higher
gusts. This makes Ivan an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Strengthening is forecast
during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb...28.05 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area.
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing flash floods
and mud slides...can be expected along the path of Ivan..
repeating the 11 PM AST position...12.1 N... 63.3 W. Movement
toward...west near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 950 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am AST followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am AST.
Forecaster Beven
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#neversummer
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38266
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 23
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 07, 2004
Ivan has continued to strengthen during the evening. The last pass
of an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter through the eye showed a
central pressure near 950 mb and maximum flight-level winds of 129
kt at 700 mb. The initial intensity is set to 115 kt based on the
flight-level winds and satellite intensity estimates of 115 kt from
all agencies. It should be noted that the satellite signature of
Ivan has improved since 00z and the initial intensity may be
conservative. The next aircraft is scheduled to arrive in Ivan
around 06z.
The initial motion is 280/15. Ivan remains on the south side of a
strong subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. Large-scale
models forecast this ridge to slowly weaken as a mid/upper-level
trough approaches it from the northwest and as an upper-level low
develops to the east. Water vapor imagery also indicates an
upper-level low over the central and western Caribbean...but this
seeems to be retreating westward as fast or faster than the
hurricane. The synoptic pattern should produce a westward to
west-northwestward motion for the next 72 hr or so...followed by a
more northwestward motion at a slower forward speed thereafter.
Unfortunately...model guidance is not very consistent from run to
run at the moment. The GFS made a huge shift to the right...from
passing west of Florida to passing 200 nm east of Florida. The
GFDL also shifted to the right...but from a left outlier into the
middle of the guidance envelope. The official forecast also
shifts...a little to the south early in the forecast to allow for
the current position and motion and a little to the right later in
the forecast period. It is in best agreement with the NOGAPS.
Upper-level winds are forecast to be generally favorable for
development through the forecast period...so the intensity of Ivan
will be mainly controlled by concentric eyewall cycles...changes in
sea surface temperature...and land interaction. An SSM/I overpass
at 0105z showed an outer eyewall starting to form...which suggest
the current intensification cycle will stop in 6-12 hr. However...
by that time Ivan may be stronger than currently forecast. The
hurricane will pass over some slightly cooler sea surface
temperatures through 48 hr...then reach warmer water northwest of
Jamaica after 72 hr. Regardless of the exact ups and Downs in the
intensity...Ivan is expected to remain a strong hurricane through
the forecast period...most likely category 4 but possibly reaching
category 5 at some points.
Hurricane warnings have been issued for Aruba...Bonaire...and
Curacao...as any motion south of the forecast track could bring
hurricane force winds near or over those islands.
Forecaster Beven
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 08/0300z 12.1n 63.3w 115 kt
12hr VT 08/1200z 12.8n 65.7w 125 kt
24hr VT 09/0000z 13.8n 68.8w 130 kt
36hr VT 09/1200z 14.9n 71.6w 130 kt
48hr VT 10/0000z 16.3n 74.2w 130 kt
72hr VT 11/0000z 19.0n 78.5w 120 kt
96hr VT 12/0000z 21.0n 81.0w 130 kt
120hr VT 13/0000z 24.0n 83.0w 120 kt
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 07, 2004
Ivan has continued to strengthen during the evening. The last pass
of an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter through the eye showed a
central pressure near 950 mb and maximum flight-level winds of 129
kt at 700 mb. The initial intensity is set to 115 kt based on the
flight-level winds and satellite intensity estimates of 115 kt from
all agencies. It should be noted that the satellite signature of
Ivan has improved since 00z and the initial intensity may be
conservative. The next aircraft is scheduled to arrive in Ivan
around 06z.
The initial motion is 280/15. Ivan remains on the south side of a
strong subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. Large-scale
models forecast this ridge to slowly weaken as a mid/upper-level
trough approaches it from the northwest and as an upper-level low
develops to the east. Water vapor imagery also indicates an
upper-level low over the central and western Caribbean...but this
seeems to be retreating westward as fast or faster than the
hurricane. The synoptic pattern should produce a westward to
west-northwestward motion for the next 72 hr or so...followed by a
more northwestward motion at a slower forward speed thereafter.
Unfortunately...model guidance is not very consistent from run to
run at the moment. The GFS made a huge shift to the right...from
passing west of Florida to passing 200 nm east of Florida. The
GFDL also shifted to the right...but from a left outlier into the
middle of the guidance envelope. The official forecast also
shifts...a little to the south early in the forecast to allow for
the current position and motion and a little to the right later in
the forecast period. It is in best agreement with the NOGAPS.
Upper-level winds are forecast to be generally favorable for
development through the forecast period...so the intensity of Ivan
will be mainly controlled by concentric eyewall cycles...changes in
sea surface temperature...and land interaction. An SSM/I overpass
at 0105z showed an outer eyewall starting to form...which suggest
the current intensification cycle will stop in 6-12 hr. However...
by that time Ivan may be stronger than currently forecast. The
hurricane will pass over some slightly cooler sea surface
temperatures through 48 hr...then reach warmer water northwest of
Jamaica after 72 hr. Regardless of the exact ups and Downs in the
intensity...Ivan is expected to remain a strong hurricane through
the forecast period...most likely category 4 but possibly reaching
category 5 at some points.
Hurricane warnings have been issued for Aruba...Bonaire...and
Curacao...as any motion south of the forecast track could bring
hurricane force winds near or over those islands.
Forecaster Beven
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 08/0300z 12.1n 63.3w 115 kt
12hr VT 08/1200z 12.8n 65.7w 125 kt
24hr VT 09/0000z 13.8n 68.8w 130 kt
36hr VT 09/1200z 14.9n 71.6w 130 kt
48hr VT 10/0000z 16.3n 74.2w 130 kt
72hr VT 11/0000z 19.0n 78.5w 120 kt
96hr VT 12/0000z 21.0n 81.0w 130 kt
120hr VT 13/0000z 24.0n 83.0w 120 kt
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#neversummer
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