I hate these models!

#1 Postby **Canelaw99** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:44 pm

4 of these 5 have it heading for the Keys, putting me on the dirty side of the storm :grr:

Good thing that models can/might change....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

lilbump3000 · #2 Postby **lilbump3000** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:45 pm

For right now all the models have just about losted it.

jude · #3 Postby **jude** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:51 pm

Here's my favorite:

http://cards.webshots.com/c85633743aqvham

Lockhart · #4 Postby **Lockhart** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:52 pm

My guess is that the models are expecting some trough interaction which we can't see to have a huge effect, although it's puzzling why they keep intensifying the supposed effect. As it is, it looks to me like the storm is continually far South of where they've predicted. It is hard to believe they might shift it right after they're continually overestimating how far North it's going. I mean, if they thought yesterday that it'd go, say, to point X based on Ivan being at spot Y now, it's amazing they would say now that they need to shift point X up/east when it turns out Ivan is significantly down/west of Y.

Michael

#5 Postby **Canelaw99** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:53 pm

jude

CFLCaneWatcher · #6 Postby **CFLCaneWatcher** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:56 pm

It's way early, anything can happen. Ad you've noticed, we have had a really weird season to date. I think Ivan willbe far N of you, specifically Tampa Bay. Although, I hope it decides to go fishing!

calidoug · #7 Postby **calidoug** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:58 pm

Lockhart wrote:My guess is that the models are expecting some trough interaction which we can't see to have a huge effect, although it's puzzling why they keep intensifying the supposed effect. As it is, it looks to me like the storm is continually far South of where they've predicted. It is hard to believe they might shift it right after they're continually overestimating how far North it's going. I mean, if they thought yesterday that it'd go, say, to point X based on Ivan being at spot Y now, it's amazing they would say now that they need to shift point X up/east when it turns out Ivan is significantly down/west of Y.

Michael

It's heading to Brickell Key. Trust me on this.

#8 Postby **Canelaw99** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 9:00 pm

calidoug!

Eyes2theSkies · #9 Postby **Eyes2theSkies** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 9:03 pm

this makes no sense to me how can all these models pull this storm so far north while these storm is moving so fast. its we only gaining longitude. I cant see and hope for us here in Florida it doesnt start gaining latitude as sharply as these models say

hibiscushouse · #10 Postby **hibiscushouse** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 9:04 pm

I think Ivan willbe far N of you, specifically Tampa Bay

I hate these models!

I hate these models!

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