HPC Ivan Position come next Monday.....link

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Dean4Storms
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HPC Ivan Position come next Monday.....link

#1 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:12 pm

With the synopsis they lay out, ridge coming down over NE CONUS, ridge over MX. and a trough coming through upper middle Conus the only solution in my mind is a upper Gulf Coast Landfall from NO to PC, FL.


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif
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#2 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:14 pm

They had an excellent 3-7 day outlook today regarding Ivan. It was longer than any other part of the forecast which is unusual. I'm going to have to agree with the NO to PC landfall.
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#3 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:30 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:They had an excellent 3-7 day outlook today regarding Ivan. It was longer than any other part of the forecast which is unusual. I'm going to have to agree with the NO to PC landfall.


I agree and if the trough over the northern Rockies moves eastward faster or digs further southward you have to move that landfall toward western FL. peninsula. But as the HPC shows in that graphic it would likely come northward from that position.
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#4 Postby PTPatrick » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:32 pm

NOOO....quite saying New Orleans to Pensacola! I am halfway in between on a tidal bayou!...curses
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#5 Postby redfishben » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:35 pm

If your dire prediction comes true, when would it reach the north gulf coast. I live in Mobile and plan to be out of town for the weekend. Will I still have time to prepare Sunday afternoon or should I prepare before I leave. I know it is a long way out but just trying to plan ahead.
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#6 Postby TideFreak » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:45 pm

Mobile here also, but we still have time to watch him redfish. We should know alot more in 2-3 days, or 4, or 5 . . .
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#7 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:49 pm

I'm leaning to another Florida storm...maybe another Tampa storm. It depends on how far north this system gets. If it gets to the tip of Cuba, then, it will likely turn North, or maybe even NE, again, IMO.
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#8 Postby CFLCaneWatcher » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:53 pm

I agree with you 100%. Unfortunately, I think it will make landfall in the Tampa Bay area. Just a premenition, although quite early. I hope I am wrong. That would be devastating considering what this monster may become.
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#9 Postby Lowpressure » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:53 pm

Mobile Alabama to Gulfport Mississippi would be my guess here. I know it is way too early to speculate, but the mid gulf looks mighty suspect with this one.
Last edited by Lowpressure on Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#10 Postby WeatherNLU » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:54 pm

Trying to make a guess now is like the people who actually pick their lottery numbers. If you land that one and a billion longshot, you are a lucky sonna you know what.
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#11 Postby bwstg » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:08 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:
PurdueWx80 wrote:They had an excellent 3-7 day outlook today regarding Ivan. It was longer than any other part of the forecast which is unusual. I'm going to have to agree with the NO to PC landfall.


I agree and if the trough over the northern Rockies moves eastward faster or digs further southward you have to move that landfall toward western FL. peninsula. But as the HPC shows in that graphic it would likely come northward from that position.


Okay, I gotta freakin know here. What the heck is PC. I have been trying to figure this stuff out??
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#12 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:11 pm

I don't see a Florida Cross-over with this synopsis. The High over the Ohio valley would be dropping ESE and would help to build a ridge over Florida from the Atlantic. The TC would likely head northward in advance of the Rockies Trough, much like Frances has done.
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#13 Postby Cape Verde » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:11 pm

I have to assume it's Pensacola.
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#14 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:11 pm

bwstg wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:
PurdueWx80 wrote:They had an excellent 3-7 day outlook today regarding Ivan. It was longer than any other part of the forecast which is unusual. I'm going to have to agree with the NO to PC landfall.


I agree and if the trough over the northern Rockies moves eastward faster or digs further southward you have to move that landfall toward western FL. peninsula. But as the HPC shows in that graphic it would likely come northward from that position.


Okay, I gotta freakin know here. What the heck is PC. I have been trying to figure this stuff out??


PC is Panama City, FL. LOL!! Sorry!
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#15 Postby GulfHills » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:15 pm

Okay, I gotta freakin know here. What the heck is PC. I have been trying to figure this stuff out??[/quote]


Panama City, Florida
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#16 Postby NateFLA » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:20 pm

Sean in New Orleans wrote:I'm leaning to another Florida storm...maybe another Tampa storm. It depends on how far north this system gets. If it gets to the tip of Cuba, then, it will likely turn North, or maybe even NE, again, IMO.

CFLCaneWatcher wrote:I agree with you 100%. Unfortunately, I think it will make landfall in the Tampa Bay area. Just a premenition, although quite early. I hope I am wrong. That would be devastating considering what this monster may become.


STOP STOP STOP! NO! We are clearly enough unprepared as is! It has been over 55 hours now without power, and I haven't even SEEN a Teco truck in the CITY meanwhile progress is out fixing almost 24/7! Out intersections have police SITTING in their cars NOT directing traffic.

People here are driving like maniacs and NOT stopping 4 ways at out lights. Tampa is not ready for a real storm.
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#17 Postby Canelaw99 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:20 pm

PC as in HPC??? Isn't that the Hurricane Prediction Center??
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#18 Postby jes » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:21 pm

Waiting is so hard. I'm also from Mobile. I started picking up things in the yard last week with Frances and have done all my laundry. I can't put up shutters, because I can't lift them- I'm female. It is unnerving, but I guess its been so long since we have had a storm the trees need cleaning out.
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#19 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:23 pm

HPC = hydrometerological prediction center
PC = Panama City (Beach), FL
NHC = National Hurricane Center
TPC = Tropical prediction center
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