Evening Ivan Forecast... 135KT in SE GOM

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html


I appologize for no track graphics, we had a major network outage today at RSMAS and I was unable to access MATLAB or any other plotting program to make anything

[Brent]

Derek... stop that now. If that thing comes ashore and makes it to me, it would still be a hurricane unless it stalls.

[dhweather]

Derek - I applaud your forecasts on Frances -
you had her almost over Lake Okechobee, and voila!

[Derek Ortt]

this is going to be horrible for very many people, already has leveled the island of Grenada and caused significant damage to others

[Agua]

Derek - I applaud your forecasts on Frances -
you had her almost over Lake Okechobee, and voila!

Ditto. Nailed it on both landfalls within 50 miles.

[Brent]

Your going to give me a heart attack...

While Ivan will likely become a category five hurricane in the NW Carib

Please no.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

this is going to be horrible for very many people, already has leveled the island of Grenada and caused significant damage to others

You seem to be basing your forecast on the persistant westerly movement. Did you note that the GFS doesn't start moving the storm WNW until after 65w but still manages to get the storm well east of Florida?

[Derek Ortt]

i have found so many errors in the GFS model (absolute BS initial conditions, I am working on a note for submission to MWR regarding its BS initial conditions for Isabel), that I have 0 confidence in the model and will never take it seriously, unless it is in agreement with the Canadian and a few others

[CalmBeforeStorm]

i have found so many errors in the GFS model (absolute BS initial conditions, I am working on a note for submission to MWR regarding its BS initial conditions for Isabel), that I have 0 confidence in the model and will never take it seriously, unless it is in agreement with the Canadian and a few others

It did nail the virtual stalkl of Frances just off the Florida coast.

[dhweather]

i have found so many errors in the GFS model (absolute BS initial conditions, I am working on a note for submission to MWR regarding its BS initial conditions for Isabel), that I have 0 confidence in the model and will never take it seriously, unless it is in agreement with the Canadian and a few others

Isn't GFS the "product" of combining the MRF and another model?

[Derek Ortt]

GFS is a combination of AVN and MRF


GFS was atrocious for longer than 4 days for Frances. It had the storm inland over SC. I'm still waiting for the SC landfall

[PurdueWx80]

i have found so many errors in the GFS model (absolute BS initial conditions, I am working on a note for submission to MWR regarding its BS initial conditions for Isabel), that I have 0 confidence in the model and will never take it seriously, unless it is in agreement with the Canadian and a few others

It did nail the virtual stalkl of Frances just off the Florida coast.

And consistently brought the storm to the Carolina/GA coastline. It has been too far north all season.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

GFS is a combination of AVN and MRF


GFS was atrocious for longer than 4 days for Frances. It had the storm inland over SC. I'm still waiting for the SC landfall

Not to criticize but at one point you stated that Frances wouls either weaken and run into South America or recurve out to sea. You did much better later.

[Javlin]

Between Derek and AF MET laying out the ground work had Frances pegged for FL days before the NHC ever thought.The NHC did not get it right till they had to look at it in there face.The fact why there models was off was due to bad dropsonde data corrupting the models.While the rest of the models like CMC,UKMET and LBAR devoid of this info got the storm halfway right.Synoptics plays a big part of the forcast in my eyes.Look and think about the picture do not rely on the computer to spit out the numbers for yea.God gave us a brain that for most of us if we use is better than the computer.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Between Derek and AF MET laying out the ground work had Frances pegged for FL days before the NHC ever thought.The NHC did not get it right till they had to look at it in there face.The fact why there models was off was due to bad dropsonde data corrupting the models.While the rest of the models like CMC,UKMET and LBAR devoid of this info got the storm halfway right.Synoptics plays a big part of the forcast in my eyes.Look and think about the picture do not rely on the computer to spit out the numbers for yea.God gave us a brain that for most of us if we use is better than the computer.

The NHC was showing a north of WPB landfall at least 72 hours in advance and only aired on the speed by not trusting the GFS's near stall.

[WXBUFFJIM]

A category 5 is definitely likely with this system. It's really been bombing over the past 24 hours.

Jim

[dhweather]

And has excellent symmetry after the wobble!

[B-Bear]

I think this is about right, Derek.

[Derek Ortt]

is it OK if I use this graphic and put it on nwhhc?

[B-Bear]

You bet. As long as it's right. I'm a rookie.