GFS , BAMM, right turn also

[Myersgirl]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _model.htm

[dhweather]

>72 hours = not very reliable, IMHO

[golter]

NHC track is now most west of them all, what a shift....

[ericinmia]

not looking good...

[CFLCaneWatcher]

I don't usually follow or reley on the NOGAPS but it looks right on to me for Ivan.

[wxwatcher2]

I'm in Orlando and I'm kind of shell shocked.
If this is a Cat 4 turning Northward from Cuba,
Florida Penninsula will feel the affects of Ivan.

I can't imagine a Cat 4 on an already devastated state of Florida.

Watchin the Models with unbelieving eyes.

[Pasco]

wxwatcher2, I share your dread. I feel like I've been sucked into another dimension where my whole life revolves around preparing for the next potential disaster.

[Derek Ortt]

how about looking at past performance and the synoptics to determine if their solution is realistic instead of having a haert attack because some models have a storm heading toward your home town

[Pasco]

how about looking at past performance and the synoptics to determine if their solution is realistic instead of having a haert attack because some models have a storm heading toward your home town

ok

[Brent]

how about looking at past performance and the synoptics to determine if their solution is realistic instead of having a haert attack because some models have a storm heading toward your home town

For real, LOL

They are too far right.

[dhweather]

how about looking at past performance and the synoptics to determine if their solution is realistic instead of having a haert attack because some models have a storm heading toward your home town

Amen! Until you've compared actual vs. predicted results, don't react so harshly. And always remember, >72 hours out = large errors

[Mello1]

how about looking at past performance and the synoptics to determine if their solution is realistic instead of having a haert attack because some models have a storm heading toward your home town

Perhaps providing a more fuller explanation to support your position would be most useful.

[Mello1]

This' an announcement for all tropical cyclones for the rest of this year:

Please, Florida, North & South Carolina, Virginia, Georgia, even Maryland, The Bahamas, Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, all the Lesser Antilles, have been already affected by you in some way or the other. Now is time for Central America, Texas, Louisiana, and others not mentioned.

Well, for my money, I would prefer no land mass being hit...

[Derek Ortt]

canada has yet to get theirs, though their season is just starting

[ColdFront77]

Tropical cyclone forecast tracks out to 72 hours are more reliable than going out 120 hours.

[wxwatcher2]

No one is having a hear attack over the current models 72 - 120 hours out.

All I'm saying is that an awful lot of people in the State of Florida are in a wierd state of mind after the last two storms.

I like tracking these things as much as the rest of you.
It's a whole new ball game when you are the bulls eye.

Everyone this year wants to take all the storms into the GOM.
So far, it's not happening.

[ColdFront77]

I agree with you wxwatcher2. It puts us here in central Florida on the map, especially when you have an interest in meteorology.

Bonnie and Charley were in the Gulf of Mexico, sure not the central and western Gulf, but the Gulf nonetheless.

North Carolina, Texas and Louisiana have seen the most landfalling hurricanes, which Florida which has been lucky for awhile now is "a sitting duck."

[CalmBeforeStorm]

how about looking at past performance and the synoptics to determine if their solution is realistic instead of having a haert attack because some models have a storm heading toward your home town

To recap, the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, BAMMS, GFDL and European all show from just west of Florida to east of Florida. Which models' performance records shouls we question at this point?

[Bluenoser]

canada has yet to get theirs, though their season is just starting

We don't want it!

[Dean4Storms]

The thing I would tell folks is this, don't jump on model shifts with one run. The best thing is to find a consenses and the model that is most persistant with both initializing, early track non errors and what makes sense with the current weather synopsis. Also, it is a good idea to to go back with the history of the model with other recent storms to see how they did. Give another output or two from the models before we get ansy over a more eastward or right track, if they continue going right, we'll feel better about more of a eastward track. But right now I just don't see it.