8pm Ivan-NOW CATEGORY FOUR-135 MPH WINDS!!!

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST TUE SEP 07 2004

...IVAN REGAINS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY...
CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT...THE
GRENADINES...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE DUTCH NETHERLAND ANTILLES OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO...
AS WELL AS FOR THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLUMBIA. A HURRICANE
WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.

AT 645 PM AST...2245Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MARTINIQUE HAS
DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR MARTINIQUE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105
KM... WEST OF GRENADA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 385 MILES...620 KM...
EAST OF BONAIRE.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT IVAN IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM. GRENADA REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 116 MPH...187
KM/HR WHEN THE EYE PASSED BY A FEW HOURS AGO.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER PASSES THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED AS IVAN PASSES THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...12.0 N... 62.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[WeatherNLU]

Couple of interesting points.......

1) 135 obviously........

2) 950MB on the pressure is down 6MB in 3 hours.

3) This westerly motion is showing no signs of letting up, or turning even WNW. I think the track might have to be shifted left again.

[nomolos]

what are the possibilites of an eventual 5 with this storm? conditions seem to be favorable

[cycloneye]

Yes more left shift at 11 PM.

[PurdueWx80]

Looks like we were right, Brent. Good call! I see the indications of a poleward outflow channel developing over the next several hours. That upper level low to the west of Ivan is really pulling that outflow up to the north, and the TUTT just east of Bermuda will start dragging it out as well. The upper low has also started bookin it off to the west, so I'm not sure how much poleward motion the storm will make tonight.

[southerngale]

Ouch...anything to hinder more strengthening or better yet, cause weakening?

[canegrl04]

I want my mommy

[recmod]

Actually, the latest vortex message has the central presure UP 1 mb to 951...so maybe the intensification has stopped for now

Vortex Data Message

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000
URNT12 KNHC 072312
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 07/2312Z
B. 11 DEG 58 MIN N
62 DEG 24 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2654 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 079 DEG 129 KT
G. 347 DEG 009 NM
H. <b>951 MB</b>
I. 10 C/ 3094 M
J. 18 C/ 3079 M
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E05/13/9
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/2 NM
P. AF984 0509A IVAN OB 29
MAX FL WIND 129 KT N QUAD 2309Z.
EYE 0.7 MILE FROM S EYEWALL.

[FritzPaul]

I don't see how the models can shift right if the NHC continues him on a 280 for the next 24hr.

[Brent]

Maybe some shear out ahead of it, but otherwise no. I'm REALLY shocked. I expected South America to disrupt it, but that myth has now been debunked. If it doesn't turn WNW, it will slam into the ABC Islands tomorrow evening including Aruba.

[Guest]

I don't see Ivan coming anywhere near Florida. This one's going to Mexico, IMO.

[dynamo]

Couple of interesting points.......

3) This westerly motion is showing no signs of letting up, or turning even WNW. I think the track might have to be shifted left again.

wobble or turning in this loop?????

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

i know it's only a few frames but it is going to turn at some point

[Stormsfury]

CAREFUL ... pressures have leveled off, and the eye which was circular has become elliptical on the last RECON fix ... and also, the eye is extremely close to the eyewall structure ... which indicates to me either ...

1) the LLC is really bouncing around down there ...
2) possibility of seeing Ivan having Rossby Waves (multiple vorticities)
3) or the slightest of tilts (not a perfect vertical stacking) ...

Just when you think you see everything, along comes 2004 ...

SF

[MWatkins]

One thing...

Just because it is trending west now may not mean much later. Even the GFS...with it's out-to-sea solution...moves Ivan west for another 24 hours.

MW

[Stormsfury]

Looks like we were right, Brent. Good call! I see the indications of a poleward outflow channel developing over the next several hours. That upper level low to the west of Ivan is really pulling that outflow up to the north, and the TUTT just east of Bermuda will start dragging it out as well. The upper low has also started bookin it off to the west, so I'm not sure how much poleward motion the storm will make tonight.

Good OBS on the ULL ... it also appears to be shearing out as well with a dramatic flattening in the last 12 hours ...

[AussieMark]

Maybe some shear out ahead of it, but otherwise no. I'm REALLY shocked. I expected South America to disrupt it, but that myth has now been debunked. If it doesn't turn WNW, it will slam into the ABC Islands tomorrow evening including Aruba.

Joan in 1988 was around the South American coast for a lot of her life.

[CFLCaneWatcher]

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT IVAN IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


Now this part of the forecast is a scary thought. I hope that nobody gets in his way! Additional strengthening! OMG!

[Stormsfury]

One thing...

Just because it is trending west now may not mean much later. Even the GFS...with it's out-to-sea solution...moves Ivan west for another 24 hours.

MW

Comparing the 18z model runs, and actually with my eyes, Ivan is already SOUTH of the 18z guidance already ... and with Ivan's continued W movement ...

Two things that have obviously concerned me, though, today is the slowing of Frances after she picked up some FWD steam last night, and 2ND, what wasn't depicted before, is another trough dropping into the Central US in about 4 days, which was NOT depicted before (instead it was a large W Coast trough) ... which has HUGE implications on the down the road outcome ...

SF

[paulvogel]

The ABC islands, desert isles all, are mistakingly thought "out side the belt"

The path Ivan is taking might be catastophic for the Favelas on the notrh facing hillsides south of caracas, a city of 4 million 30 miles south of the coast., and 3000ft up. Everytime they get 3 or more inches of rain its a disaster.

Hurricane IVAN

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UPDATE

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000
WTNT34 KNHC 072350
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST TUE SEP 07 2004

...IVAN REGAINS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY...
CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT...THE
GRENADINES...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE DUTCH NETHERLAND ANTILLES OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO...
AS WELL AS FOR THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLUMBIA. A HURRICANE
WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.


Caracas is 10deg28 min north,67 deg 2 min west

[Canelaw99]

Two things that have obviously concerned me, though, today is the slowing of Frances after she picked up some FWD steam last night, and 2ND, what wasn't depicted before, is another trough dropping into the Central US in about 4 days, which was NOT depicted before (instead it was a large W Coast trough) ... which has HUGE implications on the down the road outcome ...

SF

Ok, explain to me what the implications of these 2 things would be - thanks!