GFDL Right Turn

#1 Postby **MWatkins** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:38 pm

It was bound to happen. Since this is right of the old concensus plot...and the GFS was WAAAAAY right in the last run...the overall model concensus is going to shift dramatically to the right for this forecast cycle.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGQLM.0409072328

This become a very low-confidence extended forecast unless they write off the GFDL coming right as a bad run of the base model.

Will be very interesting to see how they deal with this in the 11PM.

MW

chris_fit · #2 Postby **chris_fit** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:40 pm

i hope this is joke :-/

#3 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:41 pm

Good Lord - that ends up taking it right over the damned narrowest part of Cuba again a la Charley.

#4 Postby **ericinmia** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:42 pm

Now the Yucatan prediction has less of a basis.

Imagine a day when the models are so dynamic, with so much computing power they can be run non-stop throughout the day, with an average shown at intervals throughout the day.

This is looking more ominous for the eastern GOM, and panhandle of Fl.
-Eric

#5 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:43 pm

I don't think they will shift much with the track at this point in the extended. Most everything points to western Cuba, especially as the last few hours have seen very little north of due west movement by Ivan.

scogor · #6 Postby **scogor** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:43 pm

Mike, in one of your most recent posts you predicted that this model would shift substantially to the right. As usual, you were correct!! What led you to make this prediction?

Guest · #7 Postby **Guest** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:44 pm

ColdFront77 · #8 Postby **ColdFront77** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:46 pm

It would be very interesting to know exactly where the trough/cold front was located when Charley was in the GENERAL location Ivan is now.

quickychick · #9 Postby **quickychick** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:47 pm

Le sigh. When I look at that link all I see is a maze of numbers, and I'm too lazy to plot them. Some of you upthread seemed to know immediately where she was headed--is that from experience in reading the lat/long/heading numbers for so long? Or do you have the lat/long combos for various land masses basically memorized?

If so this newbie envies you.

#10 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:49 pm

scogor wrote:Mike, in one of your most recent posts you predicted that this model would shift substantially to the right. As usual, you were correct!! What led you to make this prediction?

Not Mike, but he probably knows that the GFDL is based off the GFS.

canegrl04 · #11 Postby **canegrl04** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:50 pm

People are acting like the GDFL is the last word in hurricane prediction :roll:

I prefer to take a wait and see approach,and look at what the combined models are trending

canegrl04 · #12 Postby **canegrl04** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:50 pm

People are acting like the GDFL is the last word in hurricane prediction :roll:

I prefer to take a wait and see approach,and look at what the combined models are trending

MBryant · #13 Postby **MBryant** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:51 pm

Why is there such a hard bias to the right in all the models? The only thing I see on a consistant basis is the models shifting west or south. Are they overestimating Beta, especially in the 5-15 lattitudes.

#14 Postby **MWatkins** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:58 pm

canegrl04 wrote:People are acting like the GDFL is the last word in hurricane prediction I prefer to take a wait and see approach,and look at what the combined models are trending

scogor...because the GFS used as the background for the GFDL...it opened up pressure heights more rapidly...so when the GFDL was run against it it shifted.

canggrl04...the GFDL is now the furthest east model. Noone is proclaiming it to be the end-all-be-all...well...no one here is anyway. It is simply falling in line with all of the other guidance.

MW

#15 Postby **ALhurricane** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:02 pm

I am still skeptical to say the least...especially with Ivan still pushing west at 18 mph. If the models remain in good agreement through the next series of 00z and 12z runs, then I might bite a little more on that type of solution.

I have feeling we will see more model disagreement before we come upon a consistent solution.

Javlin · #16 Postby **Javlin** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:03 pm

That si still not that much different than what I saw this afternoon alittle more N a gradual turn still along way out though.The model that seemed to me to have the best handle on Frances was the LBAR.LBAR was consisently S of everyone and made good adjustments never radical.Anyone know how to get the LBAR model or is under a different name like GFS(AVN) is.

BensonTCwatcher · #17 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:06 pm

I wonder if we will see the turn. Having said that I still don't see that the turn N needs to be all that drastic. Especially if you look at past storms. I still think we will see a lot of divergence for 24 hours or more.

Stratosphere747 · #18 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:07 pm

270 to 290 in 6 hours??

One heck of a turn!!!!

~SirCane · #19 Postby **~SirCane** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:10 pm

Dang scary. This weekend is going to be quite interesting.

Website · #20 Postby **Brent** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:11 pm

ALhurricane wrote:I am still skeptical to say the least...especially with Ivan still pushing west at 18 mph. If the models remain in good agreement through the next series of 00z and 12z runs, then I might bite a little more on that type of solution.

I have feeling we will see more model disagreement before we come upon a consistent solution.

Exactly... this is way south of everything. No sign of even a WNW motion right now.

GFDL Right Turn

GFDL Right Turn

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