Already the 12 UTC UKMET plots not good

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148499
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Already the 12 UTC UKMET plots not good

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:18 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html


HURRICANE IVAN ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 59.4W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092004



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 07.09.2004 11.7N 59.4W INTENSE

00UTC 08.09.2004 12.7N 62.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 08.09.2004 13.8N 65.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.09.2004 15.3N 68.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.09.2004 16.3N 70.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 10.09.2004 17.8N 73.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 10.09.2004 19.2N 75.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 11.09.2004 20.5N 77.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 11.09.2004 21.2N 78.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 12.09.2004 22.3N 79.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 12.09.2004 23.6N 80.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 13.09.2004 25.2N 81.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 13.09.2004 26.9N 80.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

Already Ivan passed the 62.3w plot that this model had and way south 12.0n at that position from 12.7n so already this run is off.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
PurdueWx80
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2720
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:33 pm
Location: Madison, WI
Contact:
Contact PurdueWx80

#2 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:20 pm

That's what I figured. Ivan also doesn't appear to be "weakening slightly".
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
tallbunch
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 297
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 12:35 pm
Location: hilton head Island, SC

#3 Postby tallbunch » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:21 pm

what does that mean?
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#4 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:21 pm

26.9 N/80.6 W? :cry:

That would be between Lake Okeechobee and West Palm Beach. :eek: :(
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148499
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#5 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:22 pm

It means that it has continued westward and not making a turn more WNW and that is important because the global models this afternoon didn't haved Ivan passed 82w.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
nomolos
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 70
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:10 pm
Location: Jacksonville, FL

#6 Postby nomolos » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:22 pm

26.9 N/80.6 W?

That would be between Lake Okeechobee and West Palm Beach.


lets hope thats wrong
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148499
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:24 pm

They will have to shift more south at the 00z run.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#8 Postby dhweather » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:26 pm

Don't forget >72 hours = LARGE ERRORS
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

#9 Postby southerngale » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:27 pm

I guess this is why DT's forecast makes sense.
0 likes   
Please support Storm2k by making a donation today. It is greatly appreciated! Click here: Image

Image my Cowboys Image my RocketsImage my Astros
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148499
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#10 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:57 pm

After that 8 PM advisory where Ivan continues west at a good clip and shows no signs of climbing in latitud this and other models will have to shift more south.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: pepecool20 and 280 guests