Ivan turn NE

air360 · #1 Postby **air360** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:46 pm

ok...so i got a question..and this is not me wishing the storm to NC...its a serious question:)

but i was wondering...from what i am reading it seems there is suppose to be a trough or a high over the gulf (cant remember which) as well as a high over the atlantic that is suppose to turn it north. Now...right now we dont know how much it will turn north which will depend on how strong these two features are right? well...if they are very weak(or very strong...im not sure which one would turn it more north) could there be that chance that it could turn sharp enough to miss FL? and either go up the East coast or be a fish...i know its far fetched cuz everything is pointing GOM right now...but what if there is a large strength difference in these troughs/highs.....could it happen..or is it already to far west to make that kinda turn?

Anonymous · #2 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:49 pm

West coast of Florida over to the Mississippi coast.

air360 · #3 Postby **air360** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:52 pm

hey...it was just a question... :sadly:

Lindaloo · #4 Postby **Lindaloo** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:53 pm

Big EZ wrote::break:

West coast of Florida over to the Mississippi coast.

krisj · #5 Postby **krisj** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:56 pm

Hey, I think it was a good question. I am new at this stuff too. Couldn't you guys just explain why that would not be the case? I'd like to understand why instead of just hearing NO Way Wishcaster!
I didn't ask the original question, but I would like to hear why it isn't possible.

TS Zack · #6 Postby **TS Zack** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 5:01 pm

Ok let's see if the system wanted to even hit North Carolina it must move Northeast now. Number there is a weakness right now but the system is just too far South. So we wait for the next trough which will arrive around the weekend in the Central US.

bahamaswx · #7 Postby **bahamaswx** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 5:02 pm

Northwest**

air360 · #8 Postby **air360** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 5:04 pm

ok...so just becuase i said East coast...everyone gets on me...now if i had rephrased that SAME question and said "what is making it go NW into the GOM?" no one would have had a problem...but just because i said East Coast everyone freaks out...all i was asking was what exactly is controlling the turn to the north and what are the possibilities with the differences in strenght...thats not a bad question (thanks for the support krisj)

JQ Public · #9 Postby **JQ Public** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 5:06 pm

Its an honest question only because in 1954 (50 years ago) one of the strongest hurricanes to hit NC came right thru grenada and then shot straight north into the NC/SC border. There were 100mph gusts almost into the nations Capitol. It also killed 80+ people in Toronto, Canada!

See....

air360 · #10 Postby **air360** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 5:10 pm

wow, thats a crazy track...I was by no means talking about something THAT drastic...lol....but wow...i guess it is possible :think:

thanks for the graphic JQ

JQ Public · #11 Postby **JQ Public** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 5:12 pm

No prob...the anniversary is coming up soon actually. Our local news station is doing a special on it

#12 Postby **MBismyPlayground** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 5:13 pm

I have to agree with Kris. Some of us newbies might not be "people I disagree with" but are curious. I watch and pay attention not because I want this monster in my backyard, oh heck no, but want to make darn good and sure it doesn't. My busniess is based on tourism, which has everything to do with the weather.
:layout:

Another hurricane would really mess up golf season. :crying:

And honestly, if one of you could explain again why a NC or even a east coast hit is impossible, I would appreciate it. Then I can post it to all of my golfers due to come in town this coming weekend. They keep seeing a few of the models that is sending Ivan right along Charley's track.

southerngale · #13 Postby **southerngale** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 5:14 pm

I think we've had about enough of the wishcaster comments. Far-fetched or not, it was a legitimate question and he can ask it. Why not explain why it's likely not to happen rather than to call him a wishcaster. It makes others feel uncomfortable when wanting to ask questions pertaining to their area.

Anonymous · #14 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 5:22 pm

This is exactly why, Ivan will not go into the Atlantic and up the east coast.

Do the link and watch the WV imagery. That will tell you everything you need to know.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

air360 · #15 Postby **air360** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 5:28 pm

but isnt most of that moisture from Frances which is lifting north and will by gone within the next day or so?

#16 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 5:35 pm

It is not probable that Ivan will make it up to NC/SC as a landfalling Hurricane. He may make it that way in a similar manner to Frances. However, as it stands right now it is definitley too far out to make any definite statements about landfall.

The questions answer is that basically you are correct in a simplified way in your assumptions about how Ivan would be steered. The questions involved are many, but the basics are-Is the trough and ridge going to be far enough south to influence Ivan? That will become clearer as the week progresses and not before then unless you want to go strictly by models. If the trough weakens the Existing Eastern ridge enough and picks up Ivan where will it happen? Probably over the Central or South Central GOM since the ridge is supposed to be in the Western GOM and the trough is out ahead of it.

Right now with the current information available and with a cursory analysis, if I lived anywhere from New Orleans Eastward I would be watching Ivan with an EAGLE EYE and following his every move. IMO, this is a Central to East GOM storm unfortunately. I refuse to go any further out on a limb than this because so many factors could change in the next 5 days.

AL Chili Pepper · #17 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 5:39 pm

Nyet! Ivanovich like WNW. Cuban cigars, Florida blondes. Yes.

#18 Postby **MWatkins** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 5:40 pm

air360 wrote:ok...so i got a question..and this is not me wishing the storm to NC...its a serious question:)

but i was wondering...from what i am reading it seems there is suppose to be a trough or a high over the gulf (cant remember which) as well as a high over the atlantic that is suppose to turn it north. Now...right now we dont know how much it will turn north which will depend on how strong these two features are right? well...if they are very weak(or very strong...im not sure which one would turn it more north) could there be that chance that it could turn sharp enough to miss FL? and either go up the East coast or be a fish...i know its far fetched cuz everything is pointing GOM right now...but what if there is a large strength difference in these troughs/highs.....could it happen..or is it already to far west to make that kinda turn?

Hitting NC under the current environment will be tough...however...turning this to miss the US is not so far fetched. The 18Z GFS is hinting that this could occur. In fact...all we need is 4 degrees of longitude eastward and we may be able to get this thing out.

Unfortunately...somebody is going to get clobbered regardless.

MW

Karebear · #19 Postby **Karebear** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 5:44 pm

I am also a newbie. I read more than I post, now I know why. A person can't even ask a serious question about the east coast without getting put down or made fun of. I thought this was a friendly and understanding board. I'll just keep browsing and just not ask a question, especailly if it pertains to the east coast. Thank you to those who do not put us newbies down with an honest but may be dumb question to you, but not us.

#20 Postby **Canelaw99** » Tue Sep 07, 2004 5:45 pm

AL Chili Pepper!

:lol:

Ivan turn NE

Ivan turn NE

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