UKMET Agreement w/ NOGAPS and GFS

[Stormcenter]

Mike I respect your forecast and appreciate the time
and effort you put into them but come on
aren't getting a little too excited about a storm that
is still at least 5 days away from making any landfall
along the US coastline? How much confidence can you have in models that did not predict Frances (thank goodness) weakening before
landfall or crossing into the GOM 5 days away? I know you live in Miami, Fl so it's not what you want to see but no need to start yelling fire just yet.
By the way do you realize how far south he still is? I just
don't see the scenario the models have about a north movement
toward Florida. He is primarily moving westward at quick rate.
I would not be surprised to see this baby go straight into Central America.
Just my 2 cents.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[MWatkins]

Mike I respect your forecast and appreciate the time
and effort you put into them but come on
aren't getting a little too excited about a storm that
is still at least 5 days away from making any landfall
along the US coastline? How much confidence canyou in models that did not predict Frances (thank goodness) weakening before
landfall or crossing into the GOM 5 days away? I know you live in Miami, Fl so it's not what you want to see but no need to start yelling fire just yet.
By the way do you realize how far south he still is? I just
don't see the scenario the models have about a north movement
toward Florida. He is primarily moving westward at quick rate.
I would not be surprised to see this baby go straight into Central America.
Just my 2 cents.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Please see this thread for my reponse...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=42548

MW

[PurdueWx80]

For the 18z UKMET track to verify, Ivan will have to make an immediate turn to the WNW-NW in the next few hours. That is completely unreasonable if you ask me. I do feel a more north component will begin soon because of the enormous ULL over the Caribbean, but nothing like the UKMET shows.

[Stormcenter]

Mike I respect your forecast and appreciate the time
and effort you put into them but come on
aren't getting a little too excited about a storm that
is still at least 5 days away from making any landfall
along the US coastline? How much confidence canyou in models that did not predict Frances (thank goodness) weakening before
landfall or crossing into the GOM 5 days away? I know you live in Miami, Fl so it's not what you want to see but no need to start yelling fire just yet.
By the way do you realize how far south he still is? I just
don't see the scenario the models have about a north movement
toward Florida. He is primarily moving westward at quick rate.
I would not be surprised to see this baby go straight into Central America.
Just my 2 cents.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Please see this thread for my reponse...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=42548

MW

Thanks Mike and again I appreciate your analysis.
I hope for everyone sake he weakens before making
landfall wherever that may be.

[Collier Canetracker]

Link needed please:

I am aware of a handful of sites which show these various models. Could someone please direct me to the source where the results of these model runs (UKMET, GFS, NOGAPS, and others) are first released...which presumably is the source from which other sites such as weatherunderground.com and net-waves take them for their own use?

[MWatkins]

For the 18z UKMET track to verify, Ivan will have to make an immediate turn to the WNW-NW in the next few hours. That is completely unreasonable if you ask me. I do feel a more north component will begin soon because of the enormous ULL over the Caribbean, but nothing like the UKMET shows.

In the early portion of the period the UKMET has been the right most member of the global model concensus for the last few runs...but ut had maintained that trajectory throughout most of the 144 hour period. At 00Z it did so but then hooked N in the last 2 plots...now the hook is earlier. If this trends back to the W then I will feel better about this running into the Gulf.

MW

[Stormcenter]

For the 18z UKMET track to verify, Ivan will have to make an immediate turn to the WNW-NW in the next few hours. That is completely unreasonable if you ask me. I do feel a more north component will begin soon because of the enormous ULL over the Caribbean, but nothing like the UKMET shows.

In the early portion of the period the UKMET has been the right most member of the global model concensus for the last few runs...but ut had maintained that trajectory throughout most of the 144 hour period. At 00Z it did so but then hooked N in the last 2 plots...now the hook is earlier. If this trends back to the W then I will feel better about this running into the Gulf.

MW

Mike please not the GOM. I like my Central America scenario better.
Before I get slammed I'm NOT wishing Ivan on the good people
of Central America. If it was up to me NOBODY would have to
deal with this monster and believe me it looks like it will be one unless
some miraculous (it does happen as we already know) weakening before
it makes it's landfall or landfalls.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[PurdueWx80]

The 12Z Euro has a more northerly track - just clips Hispaniola, runs along the eastern half of Cuba and ends up paralleling the west coast of FL w/ an implied landfall in almost the exact same place that Frances made her second hit.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts

[tronbunny]

Actually the UKMET track should have it much weaker after traversing a good portion of Cuba.
The UKMET has it landing fast and very low in SW FL.
Doesn't give it much time in that area of very high SST that Charley lapped up.
This is a swamp, but it's still land, and should chew it up some more before heading for the South Cent. East Coast.

[PurdueWx80]

Actually the UKMET track should have it much weaker after traversing a good portion of Cuba.
The UKMET has it landing fast and very low in SW FL.
Doesn't give it much time in that area of very high SST that Charley lapped up.
This is a swamp, but it's still land, and should chew it up some more before heading for the South Cent. East Coast.

I don't know exactly where the text for the UKMET forecast is, but it does show Ivan weakening a bit as it traverses the island. However, at the last time step it said "Intense" and "Intensifying rapidly". I'm not exactly sure what it means, other than it being a major hurricane deepening upon landfall (like Charley).

[HurricaneQueen]

Mike, you know I love you dearly, but I certainy hope you(the models) are wrong because if not, Ivan is going to be knocking on my front door and I'm just not ready for any more company right now!!!

Lynn

[patsmsg]

Maybe this would be a good time for everyone to take a nap while they can. It''s not coming ashore in the U.S. today, at least...

[HurricaneQueen]

I keep trying to take a nap but I'm at work where that is sort of frowned upon! LOL

Instead, I've been keeping up with the board in between catching up on correspondence a two week vacation. Loooooong day!

Is it 5 o'clock yet? I know it is somewhere just not in Florida.
Lynn

[AL Chili Pepper]

I've been keeping an eye on the ECMWF and it's being consistent on bringing Ivan very close to the west coast of FL. With the other models starting to converge in that area as well....Naples, Tampa...keep an eye out!

[wzrgirl1]

http://www.csgnetwork.com/zcl.html

This should help folks. Just put in your zipcode and it will tell you your actual latitude and longitude!!

[Deenac813]

http://www.csgnetwork.com/zcl.html

This should help folks. Just put in your zipcode and it will tell you your actual latitude and longitude!!

Thank you!! According to this I am 26.02 N & 80.23 W

[Canelaw99]

Cool - I'm a 25.45N 80.44W

LOL - I can see this as the new "what's your sign" pick-up line for Storm 2K junkies "Hey, baby, what's your coordinates??"

[ido]

cool site! thanks!
I'm basically lat 30, long 90
(don't tell Ivan!)

[byrd_ato]

cool site! thanks!
I'm basically lat 30, long 90
(don't tell Ivan!)

I'm not far from you. I'm at 30.46N 90.93W

[AdvAutoBob]

Cool - I'm a 25.45N 80.44W

LOL - I can see this as the new "what's your sign" pick-up line for Storm 2K junkies "Hey, baby, what's your coordinates??"

too funny!