12Z GFS - southwest of Jamaica

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

12Z GFS - southwest of Jamaica

#1 Postby x-y-no » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:14 am

at 96:

Image
0 likes   
Top
btsgmdad
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 371
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 9:51 am
Location: Lincoln Park, MI

#2 Postby btsgmdad » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:22 am

Every model run I see put this storm on a Charley-type track. I just pray that its not Charley-type intensity. :(
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#3 Postby x-y-no » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:27 am

btsgmdad wrote:Every model run I see put this storm on a Charley-type track. I just pray that its not Charley-type intensity. :(


This run sure looks like Charley redux. Straight across the narrow neck of Cuba again ...

Image
0 likes   
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6685
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

#4 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:28 am

btsgmdad wrote:Every model run I see put this storm on a Charley-type track. I just pray that its not Charley-type intensity. :(


It will a totally different scenario than Charley though.
There will be no strong trough to pull him quickly north
toward Florida.
0 likes   
Top
Rainband

#5 Postby Rainband » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:30 am

Good, I for one hope it goes to mexico :wink:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
~SirCane
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 287
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 9:55 pm
Location: Pensacola, FL
Contact:
Contact ~SirCane

#6 Postby ~SirCane » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:31 am

It won't go through the FL Peninsula this time. It will threaten East LA all the way to the Fl Panhandle IMO.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#7 Postby x-y-no » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:31 am

Stormcenter wrote:
btsgmdad wrote:Every model run I see put this storm on a Charley-type track. I just pray that its not Charley-type intensity. :(


It will a totally different scenario than Charley though.
There will be no strong trough to pull him quickly north
toward Florida.


Trough is not so strong and a little ahead, yes. Weakness to the north with a ridge to the right, though. Given the GFS tendency to underestimate that ridge, though, this whole scenario is still quite possibly further west.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#8 Postby x-y-no » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:40 am

Naples, FL landfall at 156 hours:

Image

I sure hope this doesn't verify. :-(
0 likes   
Top
Matthew5

#9 Postby Matthew5 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:42 am

Looks like Charley the second? :eek:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#10 Postby x-y-no » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:46 am

Matthew5 wrote:Looks like Charley the second? :eek:


Yeah ...

But as I've been saying, the GFS has a very hard time with the strength of the ridge, frequently underestimating it. If it is doing its normal thing, than we can expect the real track to be further west (sorry GOM folks).
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Wein and 124 guests