"These forecasts have been shown reliable"?? NOT!

[TPACane04]

I must take exception with NCweatherdude's alleged disclaimer...and here is my proof:

This is his "forecast" released on Monday 8/30:

The omni-important track forecast is along the same line as earlier today; however, due to the initial forward motion, I have slid the forecast forward a bit, and to the left a touch at the end of the forecast period--keeping the storm off the Florida coast, but bringing the center very close, so that effects of the storm would certainly be felt along Florida--however, hurricane condtions cannot yet be guaranteed. It should also be noted that the track forecast has been a little faster than model guidance over the past couple of days, so this consideration nearly cancels out the previous error later in the forecast period, but a shift to the left is required simply based on this. Model guidance has also shifted to the left this afternoon, and it tightly clusters along the central Florida coastline through 5 days. UKMET is too fast with Frances, and the BAM models have shifted right, while GFDL, the right outlier has shifted left again. Currently the ridge is hindered in building eastward mainly by an approaching trough and particularly by Gaston and Hermine along the East Coast. This system will clear in about 36 hours, and Frances will then accelerate. A trough will arrive near the Eastern Seaboard on Day 4, and this is currently located over the northwest CONUS. The effect of this trough does appear as if it will be moderate, but a northeastward movement would not commence until at least Day 7, when a secondary and more powerful trough kicks in and shoots Frances out to sea--which means landfall beforehand, and which in almost all likelihood, eliminates the possibility of a North Carolina landfall. Therefore, the attention is shifted farther south to Georgia and South Carolina, where Frances should ride northwestward along the weakened ridge and affect these areas.
INIT 19.6N 59.8W 110KTS
12HR 20.0N 62.3W 110KTS
24HR 20.6N 64.9W 115KTS
36HR 21.5N 67.8W 120KTS
48HR 22.5N 70.5W 125KTS
72HR 24.8N 75.3W 130KTS
96HR 26.6N 78.4W 125KTS
120HR 29.3N 80.3W 125KTS

I archived this on that date, as I was very intrigued by the notion of this forecast being several hundred miles off NHC forecast. Alas, this diatribe was way off base.

My point is not to flame the dude, but rather to show that this kind of info, ESPECIALLY with a disclamier stating "forecasts shown to be reliable" is WRONG and needs to be stated a whole other way! There was not a thing accurate about this, unless you factor in the desire for a proximate hit by Frances...and the fact that Frances did get close to Florida...DUH.

On the other hand, that same day, Derek Ortt gave a very realistic agrument for slowdown and possible re-entry to GOM, which is what indeed happened, albeit slower than he, HCH or anyone else thought.

Let's keep our minds right with Ivan and quit trying to overstate the not so obvious. We have newbies on this boardf every day who are scared and will hand their hat on ANY bit of info they choose....and I for one was put off by this last week...

[CaneCurious]

Agreed. Derek Ortt, MWatkins anc Cycloneye are very reliable forecasters. Derek Ortt was right on with Frances and I respect his forecasts. Keep up the good work and keep us posted.

[alicia-w]

Maybe his forecasts had been reliable up to that point or before that storm. (Not defending him, just playing devil's advocate). Now if he makes an Ivan prediction/forecast and continues to have the proven-reliable-forecast annotation, then you may have a point.

[al79philly]

TPACane - I thought I already cleared this up.... See http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=42276&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0

Look for 12:30 PM - I think this will clear up the confusion.

[TPACane04]

yes Philly, as a matter of fact you did cover it....thanks for the reminder...