5AM NHC Discussion

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 070900
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 07 2004

AIR FORCE RECON INDICATES THAT IVAN HAS AND IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE DRASTICALLY IMPROVED
APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECON REPORTS INDICATE AN INNER
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DECAYED WHILE A NEW OUTER
EYEWALL HAS STABILIZED AT AROUND 20 NMI DIAMETER. THE HIGHEST 700
MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED SO FAR HAS BEEN 107 KT IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A DROPSONDE IN THE SAME AREA INDICATED 137 KT
WINDS AT 953 MB...BUT THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE A WIND GUST. HOWEVER
...THE OVERALL VERTICAL WIND PROFILE CLEARLY REVEALED THAT IVAN IS
IS BECOMING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AS COMPARED TO JUST 6 HOURS AGO.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/16. RECONNAISSANCE AND SATELLITE POSITION
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT IVAN HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD SPEED SOMEWHAT.
A NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET PERFORMED A SURVEILLANCE FLIGHT AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF IVAN LATE YESTERDAY EVENING WHICH HAD A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 72 HOURS AS IVAN MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...AFTER THAT THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ENOUGH FOR ALREADY STORM WEARY PEOPLE IN FLORIDA TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT. THE GFDL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH A TRACK
BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THE NEW 00Z
GFS RUN NOW HAS A MORE REALISTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE VORTEX IN THE
MODEL INITIALIZATION...AND IT HAS SHIFTED ITS TRACK MORE TO THE
EAST OR RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH
THE LATEST NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS. THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY
OUTLIER AT 96HR AND 120HR BY TAKING IVAN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN CUBA. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT ALL OF THE MODELS ...
INCLUDING THE UKMET...GRADUALLY BUILD A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE
HIGH/RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND MEXICO AND INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY 120 HOURS THAT SHOULD ACT TO BLOCK ANY WESTWARD
MOTION INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. IN RESPONSE TO THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGING ...A BROAD TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
WAKE OF FRANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH UNFORTUNATELY OPENS THE DOOR FOR
IVAN TO POSSIBLY SLOW AND MOVE MORE NORTHWARD BY 120HR ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN TO THE RIGHT OF TRACK AFTER THAT
...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GUNA AND GUNS CONSENSUS MODELS.

IVAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY WARMER WATER...REACHING
NEAR 30C WATER IN 72HR. GIVE THE CURRENT AND FORECAST OUTFLOW
PATTERN TO REMAIN QUITE IMPRESSIVE...THEN AT LEAST STEADY
INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER. IF THE OUTFLOW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF IVAN TAPS INTO THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0900Z 11.4N 58.5W 95 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 12.0N 61.2W 105 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 13.0N 64.5W 110 KT
36HR VT 08/1800Z 14.2N 67.6W 115 KT
48HR VT 09/0600Z 15.5N 70.5W 120 KT
72HR VT 10/0600Z 18.0N 75.5W 120 KT
96HR VT 11/0600Z 20.5N 79.0W 120 KT
120HR VT 12/0600Z 23.0N 81.0W 100 KT...INLAND

[AussieMark]

be scared be very scared.

last time they mentioned Rapid Intensification occurring with Ivan it happened.

75 mph to 115 mph in 6 hrs a few days ago.

[stormchazer]

Yes we are weary. Ivan could not possible head towards Florida....could it? Its a long way off so here is hoping it spins off to an unpopulated section of anywhere then FL.

[Lebowsky]

Looks like it might run up Florida's coast like Charley.

[jlauderdal]

Yes we are weary. Ivan could not possible head towards Florida....could it? Its a long way off so here is hoping it spins off to an unpopulated section of anywhere then FL.

with that blocking high in place in a few days it could easily hit florida..cant go anywhere else just like frances couldnt move north with that ridge in place contrary to what some thought and what the gfs was seeing.

[Thunder44]

Does anybody get the impression that Stewart is rooting this storm on?

[Deenac813]

I love Stewart. I always feel like he is really talking to you in his discussions.

[jlauderdal]

Does anybody get the impression that Stewart is rooting this storm on?

just because he writes the best discussions by far and lays out all the facts dont think he is rooting it on. trust me nobody in florida wants anymore including him.

[MW98GT]

These forecast tracks have been looking like those for charley when he was in that area. Just that the cause this time for the turn is becuase of a prior hurricane that hit florida causing a weakness in the ridge.

[canegrl04]

Local met this morning showed forecast track that takes ivan into the Fl. Keys,and Eastern Gulf.Looks likea Charley path for Ivan

[B-Bear]

Well, then apparently your local met knows something that everybody else doesn't--what, with this storm being yet 6 days out and all.

[canegrl04]

Shes just basing it on the 5am NHC projected path map

[Thunder44]

Does anybody get the impression that Stewart is rooting this storm on?

just because he writes the best discussions by far and lays out all the facts dont think he is rooting it on. trust me nobody in florida wants anymore including him.

Maybe. But he doesn't point out the fact, that climatology shows that hurricanes at this latitude, have recurved east of Florida or moved into the Western Gulf or the Yucatan.

[x-y-no]

Shes just basing it on the 5am NHC projected path map

Extrapolating on a 5-day forecast path is a very, very questionable exercise. Certainly not something a responsible reporter would do.[/i]

[Aquawind]

AFTER THAT THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ENOUGH FOR ALREADY STORM WEARY PEOPLE IN FLORIDA TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT.

Dang it..Not funny coming from Mr. Stewart..

[B-Bear]

Let me make sure I understand this advisory correctly--

NHC has brought its track back to the east now, tracking Ivan across central rather than western Cuba?

And by my coordintates, the 120 day forecast point of landfall is plotted out to central Cuba--that is the landfall point they reference, correct?

[MWatkins]

Does anybody get the impression that Stewart is rooting this storm on?

No...he's actually laying down what the guidance reads...I suppose someone else could candy coat the information but thankfully he doesn't.

MW

[B-Bear]

Actually, Mike, that's what I like about Stewart--he lays it out there and doesn't play the "ultra-conservative PC-forecasting" role. Much the same as you, I might say.

[ColinD]

Does anybody get the impression that Stewart is rooting this storm on?

No...he's actually laying down what the guidance reads...I suppose someone else could candy coat the information but thankfully he doesn't.

MW

Here's to that.

[Innotech]

Stewart is the man.