Latest recon: 966mb, 85kts

[dennis1x1]

hmmm....whats that they say about low latitude systems moving fast?

hopefully he flounders around until passing the islands at least.

[Matthew5]

Wow!

000
URNT12 KNHC 070613
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 07/0613Z
B. 11 DEG 20 MIN N
57 DEG 48 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2794 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 340 DEG 85 KT
G. 244 DEG 13 NM
H. 966 MB
I. 10 C/ 3079 M
J. 15 C/ 3069 M
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF861 0309A IVAN OB 07
MAX FL WIND 85 KT SW QUAD 0609Z.

It now has a eye wall of 20 nmi. Last night when it was a cat4 it had a eye no more then 4 nmi wide. Big differnces. That 85 knots is in the southwest quad...Which is one of the weakest quads of a tropical cyclone. Lets wait intill the satellites get back on.

[dennis1x1]

meteo7 never went down...not sure why this site went to it vs goes....not really educated on what birds do what and when..

anyway....here is the latest:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/trop ... N-563W.jpg

looks like some southerly disruption....but not sure....just looking at the cloud patterns coming off SA and the possible appearance of restricted outflow in the south..

[calidoug]

Looks like continued organization

Here's 0630Z Meteo:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

Note the much improved symmetry of the convection.

20 NM closed eye is also a good sign.

EDIT: Maybe not so good, depending on eye location.

Here's the 0645Z IR: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[Thunder44]

You don't see an eye on there anymore, so it's likely starting to weaken again. Recon also shows pressure has gone up from 963mb to 966mb.

[dennis1x1]

that 6:45 pic seems to be showing some southerly shear affects......and the animated loops shows the source of the shear also...

[Anonymous]

Wow there is some strong shear ahead of the system. Im surprised the NHC hasnt noted this, as it has Ivan continually strengthening.

[AussieMark]

so is Ivan looking like not much of a issue.

in your eyes.

?????

[Thunder44]

URNT14 KNHC 070650
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01103 10595 13104 11008 01025
02104 20592 23101 21006 36023
03106 30591 33094 30908 36029
04107 40589 43090 40906 36029
05108 50587 53080 51105 01045
06110 60584 63065 60808 36034
07111 70582 73038 70808 36056
08112 80580 83938 81210 34085
MF112 M0580 MF085
OBS 01 AT 0537Z
OBS 08 AT 0609Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
01115 10576 13976 10808 13100
02117 20574 23044 20909 12073
03119 30572 33077 30908 12061
04121 40571 43092 40907 10050
05122 50569 53097 50908 11052
06124 60567 63100 60905 13053
07125 70566 73105 70806 14046
MF115 M0576 MF100
OBS 01 AT 0617Z
OBS 07 AT 0644Z
OBS 07 SFC WND /////
RMK AF861 0309A IVAN OB 12

Supplementary vortex message shows that they found a 100kt wind at flight level. So it look like the winds are about the same.

[dennis1x1]

the nhc is definitely more agressive than the ships model.....as they were with frances and her florida saving westerly shear episode....

i still think he will be a huge issue for someone........most likely cuba at his strongest....and then depending on how ideal the conditions in the gulf will be in a few days....possibly the us coast.

[AussieMark]

u expecting a storm with similar intensity to Michelle to smash cuba.

[dennis1x1]

id guess closer to charley......key word...guess.

[AussieMark]

so u expect a category 2 to hit Cuba.

no Major

????

[dennis1x1]

he could still be a major and be closer to charley than michelle at Cuba.

[AussieMark]

oh.

u mean hit western tip.

I thought u meant in intensity.

Michelle hit Bay of pigs as a category 4 with 140 mph winds and mainland Cuba as a 135 mph storm.

[Innotech]

I ca remember hurricane Lili entered the caribbean and fel apart, regained Ts status near cuba, before bombing into a Cat 4 in the Gulf. This storm could easily go that route.

[Derek Ortt]

Charley has been classified as a 105kT hurricane to make landfall in cuba

[AussieMark]

this storm could potentially be felt all the way from the Eastern Caribbean up through the US.

key word is POTENTIALLY

[ColinD]

Wow there is some strong shear ahead of the system. Im surprised the NHC hasnt noted this, as it has Ivan continually strengthening.

I was looking at that too. They missed the shear with Frances as it got to the Bahamas. Why? Maybe because SHIPS thinks it is ok. (??)

Derek?

[HurricaneBill]

Charley has been classified as a 105kT hurricane to make landfall in cuba

Wasn't Charley also classified as a Cat 1 landfall on NC as well as SC?

And also a Cat 2 landfall on Dry Tortugas?