00z GFS shows NC and VA getting IVAN...

[ericinmia]

Eventually.... Take a look at this loop. Wait for the last few images of ivan.
This can't be right; i have not looked at other models or snyoptic data, however, it seems implausible for this to happen.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
-Eric

[mobilebay]

Eventually.... Take a look at this loop. Wait for the last few images of ivan.
This can't be right; i have not looked at other models or snyoptic data, however, it seems implausible for this to happen.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
-Eric

I don't have JAVA so I can't view the loop. However, you may be talking about Ivan moving east while under a sprawling ridge. If thats what it is, I don't get it either.

[dennis1x1]

why is that implausible......troughs have been known to breakdown the eastern atlantic ridge this time of year a time or 2!!

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/image ... _climo.gif

mw makes mention of the avn breaking down the 500mb ridge in another post....not sure if he agrees with it or not....but it seems somewhat plausible.

[ericinmia]

OK... i am guessing niether of you were able to see the loop.

It takes ivan through from almost in the keys, then north just skirting miami, then out to sea... then just east of NC it takes a huge turn west through NC, then Box patter north into VA, then East out to sea. Then it jogs it through the far north-east at very jagged angles...

taking a track towards NC i have no problem with, at this time of the seaons sure its plenty possible. But i do not believe that Ivan will do what the gfs is predicting it to do.
-Eric

[ncsandman]

Looks too extreme, especially since the fronts from the northwest have been moving down almost all summer.

[dennis1x1]

oh..sorry.....didnt watch that long...thought you were referring to the general direction....yeah...the whole western retread doesnt seem very likely.....especially without a loop first

[mobilebay]

OK... i am guessing niether of you were able to see the loop.

It takes ivan through from almost in the keys, then north just skirting miami, then out to see... then just east of NC it takes a huge turn west through NC, then Box patter north into VA, then East out to sea. Then it does this again for the far north east area...

taking a track towards NC i have no problem with, at this time of the seaons sure its plenty possible. But i do not believe that Ivan will do what the gfs is predicting it to do.
-Eric

MOdels that for out are for Entertainment purposes only. I do have a problem with it moving east under A 500 MB Ridge solution.

[ericinmia]

OK... i am guessing niether of you were able to see the loop.

It takes ivan through from almost in the keys, then north just skirting miami, then out to see... then just east of NC it takes a huge turn west through NC, then Box patter north into VA, then East out to sea. Then it does this again for the far north east area...

taking a track towards NC i have no problem with, at this time of the seaons sure its plenty possible. But i do not believe that Ivan will do what the gfs is predicting it to do.
-Eric

MOdels that for out are for Entertainment purposes only. I do have a problem with it moving east under A 500 MB Ridge solution.

I know, however i find it humorous... and wanted to post it so the NC people could jump on it... lol, mabye this is what they have been waiting for! I can't wait to hear someone try and rationalize a scenario that would explain the recurveture...
-Eric

[ncsandman]

Hey Ericinmia,
Thought it was funny too, but the only kind of bad weather I want to see here, is a pretty 6 inch snow!!! Hurry up winter!! Almost there, if we can get through September!