Ivan bucking the Models and NHC?

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PTPatrick
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Ivan bucking the Models and NHC?

#1 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:45 pm

Just curious has to others opinion...this looks like there is a good chance that Ivan may head right into Belize of get killed by Columbian dry air. Lets face it...it is WELL south of where NHC has had it and there has been NO model continuity as of yet. I still think this is a GOM threat, but I am definately beginning to wonder.
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Stormsfury
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#2 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:52 pm

I questioned why with such a fast motion to the WEST and no apparent features why a poleward arc would ensue ... USAwx1 had a great explanation for me ... but with current trends, and Ivan defying odds by moving just slightly south of due WEST the last several hours ... Confidence is growing that this doesn't look like an EC storm, and may not even be an issue to Florida (right now) ...

I've gone with the model trends, which have continued to shift westward on several consecutive runs ...

SF
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Sanibel
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#3 Postby Sanibel » Mon Sep 06, 2004 10:27 pm

It looks like a classic low-tracker into Yucatan.

I've sent a message to the Belize board just to make them aware of the possibility...
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