Florida or Central America

[Windfall]

No matter how you look at it, it seems most probable that either Florida or Central America are going to be nailed with Ivan. Reasons?
1) If the high pressure system holds its ground, Ivan will probably continue west until slamming Central America/Yucatan.
2)If the high pressure weakens later, around Saturday, and Ivan moves into the GOM, a cold front and the impact of the residual moisture from the remnants of Frances will draw Ivan towards the west coast of Florida.
3)Another possibilty, which i'm banking on, is that if you take the time to observe the latest WATER VAPOR LOOP OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, notice all of the moisture from Frances stretching from the GOM into the central Atlantic, just south of Bermuda. Now, consider the forward speed of Ivan (about 20 mph). This means that Ivan will be impacted by this weakness in the ridge before the ridge has time to rebuild itself. Currently, in order for Ivan to be affected by the weakening in the ridge, it needs to move WNW to near Haiti (a higher latitude). Eventually, like most strong hurricanes and the Coriolis Effect, Ivan will take a WNW track until its just south of Hispaniola. At that moment, it will find the weakness in the ridge and move between a WNW and NW heading. This will most likely threaten Florida or maybe points northward. Like i have been saying over and over, Texas and Louisianna for the time being should not be too concerned.

Note:I am not a professional meterologist. Do not take offense to my ideas. I will admit that my forecast is influenced by 5 years of careful obsrvation of typical storm paths and weather influences. -removed- cannot be ruled out. However, I feel that Florida (or points northward) or Central America will take the brunt of the storm, putting aside Cuba and/or Hispaniola.

I hope to hear some comments soon...

[Foladar]

In your opinion: do you feel our area will be greatly effected by the hurricane? I think so far, this hurricane season has been quiet for the area, atleast, the rest of FL has gotten it bad though.

[Canelaw99]

Foladar - hey there neighbor!