Thoughts on Ivan

#21 Postby **USAwx1** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:02 pm

Looks like the 0z Tropical models have shifted even further south. see figure two in my first post.

Stormsfury · #22 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:07 pm

USAwx1 wrote:Looks like the 0z Tropical models have shifted even further south. see figure two in my first post.

The trend WEST continues ... which may be Florida's friend (for a change this year) ....

#23 Postby **TazzyD** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:14 pm

WOW! Lots of food for thought! Excellent post!!

#24 Postby **USAwx1** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:17 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
USAwx1 wrote:Looks like the 0z Tropical models have shifted even further south. see figure two in my first post.

The trend WEST continues ... which may be Florida's friend (for a change this year) ....

would be nice, but in the previous years FL has been very lucky. Avoiding taking a MAJOR hit from such storms as Floyd 1999.

This westward trend though given the right set of circumstances DOES open the door for another Bonnie or Charley like track.

#25 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:25 pm

Considering what you just went through-some of the highest winds reported from Frances- and the fact you are still on a generator I can't say anything except fanfreakintastic work as usual dude!!!

I hope your recovery from Frances is quick and easy.

Stormsfury · #26 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:25 pm

One of the things that I've considered is the progged Western Trough ... with Ivan continuing to scream ... now 24 MPH WEST (@ 270 deg) ... and if this pace continues ... Ivan will essentially outrace the development of the building Western Trough ...

which leads to two arguments ... yikes (speculation)

1) continued flying west ... but your scenario could pan out ... no massive Eastern Ridge with the massive Western Trough ...
2) continues west along the subtropical ridge ... misses the trough left due to Frances' transition and rides a building ridge in the East ... Westward ... feels the effect of the Western Trough later ...

wow ... my head hurts ...

SF

CFL · #27 Postby **CFL** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:53 pm

Very interesting look at all the possibilities!

#28 Postby **USAwx1** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:21 pm

vbhoutex wrote:Considering what you just went through-some of the highest winds reported from Frances- and the fact you are still on a generator I can't say anything except fanfreakintastic work as usual dude!!!

I hope your recovery from Frances is quick and easy.

Thanks. We saw frequent gusts above 70 mph here just south of the marineland at the beach. The roof over my garage has gone into the crapper (LARGE piece of something metal hit it and cracked a bunch of the tiles). Lucky to have the phone still working. I lost power early on SAT night.

I’m splitting the generator time (we only have two) between the stove and computer. Thankfully we have two grills so the reliance on the stove is minimal.

BTW any word from grim or Bron?

jes · #29 Postby **jes** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:21 pm

Well, I know now whose name to look for first when I get on this board. That was a wonderful!

donsutherland1 · #30 Postby **donsutherland1** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:50 pm

Outstanding discussion, USAwx1!

#31 Postby **USAwx1** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 10:11 pm

Stormsfury wrote:One of the things that I've considered is the progged Western Trough ... with Ivan continuing to scream ... now 24 MPH WEST (@ 270 deg) ... and if this pace continues ... Ivan will essentially outrace the development of the building Western Trough ...

which leads to two arguments ... yikes (speculation)

1) continued flying west ... but your scenario could pan out ... no massive Eastern Ridge with the massive Western Trough ...
2) continues west along the subtropical ridge ... misses the trough left due to Frances' transition and rides a building ridge in the East ... Westward ... feels the effect of the Western Trough later ...

wow ... my head hurts ...

SF

Ivan (right now) is a straight-moving tropical cyclone equatorward of the deep layer ridge, and tracking between 260 to 320 DEG in the easterly flow to the south of the ridge. So that general motion just right of west should continue for awhile as long as the ridge stays intact. the tropical and global models have come around to that idea the past few runs.

The strength of the ridge will be critical, and the fact that the trough over the western US is in place, it should increase the intensity of the downstream ridge---keeping Ivan on a W or WNW course.

The 18z GFS has a similar solution to the 12z GGEM and UKMET w/ IVAN sitting near The NE tip of the Yucatan at 18z SUN.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_144s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144s.gif

BUT there is a catch. The trough coming into the region on SAT Pushes the mean layer ridge eastward whle the trof it's self slpits w/ one piece exiting over the NE and the other getting left behind over the South. This picks IVAN up and eventually takes him on a charley like track in FL w/ a SHARP re-curvature.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_156s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_162s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_180s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_150s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_156s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_162s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_168s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_174s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_180s.gif

It is an interesting Solution nonetheless but still almost 8-days out. but there does right now seem to be increasing agreement regarding a similar track to the 18z GFS, so we’ll have to see.

SHould be interesting to see the 0z GFS and ECMWF.

BTW, i know the feeling about the headache lol

#32 Postby **USAwx1** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 10:12 pm

donsutherland1 wrote:Outstanding discussion, USAwx1!

thanks, Don.

#33 Postby **USAwx1** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 10:21 pm

Here is the 192 hr incase anyone is interested. Ivan would be located at this tiem between the Big bend and JAX'

panichead4469 · #34 Postby **panichead4469** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 10:58 pm

agreed...great post!!!
Now if only more people could chime in with this much data and information to back up what they are seeing.

#35 Postby **USAwx1** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:42 pm

0z GFS appears to have enough of a weakness over the EUS to push the ridge out and allow IVAN to take more of a Northerly jog passing over Cuba and into the SW Bahamas by 132hrs/12z SUN.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132s.gif

Possible; but seems to contradict much of the rest of the guidance--including the new 0z MON GGEM.

Notice it tracks IVAN into the central Gulf, then takes it into LA (not shown)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144s.gif

the GFS also slows the forward speed of Ivan a great deal as the western atlantic sub-tropical ridge gets beat back and the weak trough over the EUS trys to pick him up over the SW Bahamas on MON.

this is a BIG waffle from the 18z cycle which was in relative agreement with the UKMET and 12z GGEM.

IMO the 0z GFS smells of BullSH!T

Side note: There were 20 Ivan dropsondes received for the 0z Cycle.

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