00:00 Models=moving 265 21kt,Models shift more west

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cycloneye
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00:00 Models=moving 265 21kt,Models shift more west

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:35 pm

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE IVAN (AL092004) ON 20040907 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040907 0000 040907 1200 040908 0000 040908 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.3N 56.3W 11.9N 59.3W 12.7N 62.2W 13.5N 65.2W
BAMM 11.3N 56.3W 11.6N 59.8W 12.0N 63.3W 12.8N 66.7W
A98E 11.3N 56.3W 10.8N 60.4W 10.8N 64.0W 11.5N 67.1W
LBAR 11.3N 56.3W 11.6N 60.0W 12.1N 63.8W 12.8N 67.7W
SHIP 90KTS 87KTS 88KTS 91KTS
DSHP 90KTS 87KTS 88KTS 91KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040909 0000 040910 0000 040911 0000 040912 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.8N 68.3W 16.9N 73.5W 18.2N 77.1W 19.4N 80.0W
BAMM 13.9N 69.9W 16.1N 75.4W 17.3N 79.3W 18.2N 82.2W
A98E 12.5N 69.6W 14.7N 73.7W 16.9N 77.0W 19.4N 79.6W
LBAR 13.8N 71.6W 16.4N 77.6W 17.2N 79.6W 18.4N 82.8W
SHIP 95KTS 99KTS 104KTS 107KTS
DSHP 95KTS 99KTS 91KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 56.3W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 21KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 52.5W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 48.5W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 110KT
CENPRS = 964MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 120NM

Wow it is racing and because of that the models are responding to a more west track into the western caribbean and GOM.
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#2 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:41 pm

*whistling* ...

Continuing the trend WEST ...
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#3 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:42 pm

All are SOUTH of Cuba now!

Image
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#neversummer
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#4 Postby Guest » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:47 pm

eerily simliar to Charley. Poor Florida...
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#5 Postby Guest » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:48 pm

HKY_WX2 wrote:eerily simliar to Charley. Poor Florida...


Im actually thinking west of FLA this time, but very early in the ballgame right now...

chow...
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#6 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:48 pm

looks like that about covers the GOM track / landfall discussion..... :lol: ...
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#7 Postby ~SirCane » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:52 pm

Scary stuff.
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#8 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:54 pm

None of this bodes well for Alabama, Mississippi, Louisana, and Texas
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#9 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:54 pm

HKY_WX2 wrote:
HKY_WX2 wrote:eerily simliar to Charley. Poor Florida...


Im actually thinking west of FLA this time, but very early in the ballgame right now...

chow...


IF Ivan continues screaming WEST ... guidance will continue to TREND west, and Florida MIGHT actually get a break this time ...

SF
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#10 Postby soonertwister » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:56 pm

HKY_WX2 wrote:eerily simliar to Charley. Poor Florida...


I guess you could call Ivan eerily similar to Charley, if you hadn't been paying attention.

Get off your pat quote and state why this storm is "eerily similar". I don't think you can. More like hurricane Mitch, if you ask me. Eastern GOM looks like an outlier scenario to me at this time.

I'm sorry if I upset you, but I see a lot of similar posts on this board, and yours just happened to be the one that set me off.

I'll try to behave and be sheepish in the future when someone compares one storm to another, and I'll try not to mention alternatives. I wouldn't want to be unpopular around here... even though I'm already getting that reputation.

:na:
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