forcast models

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BUD
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forcast models

#1 Postby BUD » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:15 pm

based on the models does know if any of them are that accurate
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charleston_hugo_veteran
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#2 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:16 pm

GFDL IMHO....
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Re: forcast models

#3 Postby greeng13 » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:18 pm

BUD wrote:based on the models does know if any of them are that accurate


i'm a newbie...from what most are saying it seems as though the NHC (as a combination of models) has been pretty good this year...some mentioned one or two models sticking out (i'm not sure which ones)...and 95% i think will agree that there is a lot of water between the U.S. and Ivan
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#4 Postby canegrl04 » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:18 pm

The EURO does a fairly good job
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#5 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:18 pm

charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:GFDL IMHO....


The GFDL took Frances into the Carolinas until it was blatantly obvious it wasn't going there. :lol:
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#6 Postby BUD » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:19 pm

when i saw them earlier was it my imagination or were some of them pointing to sc
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#7 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:20 pm

Brent wrote:
charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:GFDL IMHO....


The GFDL took Frances into the Carolinas until it was blatantly obvious it wasn't going there. :lol:


OH SORRY ...i forgot you were always right...excuse me....please disregard my post....
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#8 Postby greeng13 » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:20 pm

BUD wrote:when i saw them earlier was it my imagination or were some of them pointing to sc


i think they were...but some had it following and making landfall right where frances did
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#9 Postby CL » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:30 pm

Is there a link for the EURO?..Anyone seen their latest for IVAN? Thanks
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Euro Link

#10 Postby rjgator » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:36 pm

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 4082800!!/[url][url]http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/char
ts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2004082800!!/[/url][/url]
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#11 Postby bahamaswx » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:36 pm

BUD wrote:when i saw them earlier was it my imagination or were some of them pointing to sc


Do not assume what comes after the forecast track.
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#12 Postby weatherfsu » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:40 pm

From what I have seen, the models all have their flaws. The FSU SuperEnsemble is very accurate, but it is not available to the public. Basically it takes several models, removes biases from them, crunches them together, and comes up with a result.

You will hear the NHC referencing this a lot, and tayloring their forecasts after it...even if a lot of the individual models don't agree.
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#13 Postby Aquawind » Mon Sep 06, 2004 6:41 pm

I wish NHC wrote a model analysis of each storm as it progressed for the 3 and 5 day forecasts..Then after landfall a complete model analysis..even if it was only in statistical terms..I would enjoy hearing about the individual forecast analysis at 24 hour incriments up to 5 days and then a general overview..at least providing the statistical data for a public format would provide for some interesting debate..I know the data is available..I am talkin about something highly available and in a consistant format breakdown..some overview verbage would be accepted as well..
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#14 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:18 pm

The GFDL is horrid past 72 hours ...

EURO (ECMWF) is by far, the best MR model out there ... time and time again, verification scores consistently rank #1 ... precautionary note (NEVER use the ECMWF in the SR inside of Day 3) ...

One link for the ECMWF model (Plymouth Make your own Maps)

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Models/ECMWF.html
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#15 Postby BUD » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:00 pm

some of the updated models from 8pm were pointing ivan to the gom i saw them on a website called weather underground current iam not sure how accurate it is or if it is to early to tell for sure. just one website
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#16 Postby weatherwoman » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:05 pm

joe bastardi was bringing it into the carolina too up almost until land fall. i do like to listen to him, he is a smart man.
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