TWC - pay attention please!

[borderPatrol2329]

While I am no meteorologist, I think I may understand why there is such divergence and waffling in the models. The High Pressure area that was expected to slide eastward and create a solid ridge actually began to weaken and slide to the North East. This caused the Ridge to buckle (I wouldn't go as far as calling it a trough) about 500 miles due East of Jacksonville on a parabollic line to about the SC/NC border. This buckle would draw up Frances like a magnet as she crossed the bahamas, however.... another High Pressure area formed over the upper plains began to strengthen and slowly slide to the South East. The buckle in the Ridge is showing signs of slowly atraightening out. So there lies the problem. If the buckle remains, it may draw Frances up towards the SC/NC border. If it continues to fill in, it pushes Frances's landfall further and further South. If it fills in completely, Frances hits SE FLA. If it expands, it could even force here into the upper Keys. Timing will be crucial, however, the stroger Frances becomes, the less of an impact the buckle in the ridge will play as the forward inertia will have a dampening effect on the pull from the buckle in the ridge.